State of Industry- War and Stalemate?

[Hsiang]

There was an interesting thread about the state of the industry (still on the front page) I have been curious about this as well and did some digging around. I hope I am close to the mark but am curious if something I had missed. I couldn't find much about Kingsong nor Gotway but perhaps some more digging would pull up some interesting bits as well.

Oh and sorry for calling the monster "a cheap knockoff" yes I am just jealous since I think that's the next wheel I want to get! =)

[f0dder1024]

I wonder if the Trump trade war with China might be causing companies to rethink US strategies.

[Barrett Roberts]

15 hours ago, f0dder1024 said:

I wonder if the Trump trade war with China might be causing companies to rethink US strategies.

After watching the video I think the blame is due to a patent troll and has nothing to do with Trump 

[Hsiang]

18 hours ago, f0dder1024 said:

I wonder if the Trump trade war with China might be causing companies to rethink US strategies.

I doubt the current administration had anything to do with it as most of the suits I am aware of took place before.

Also I am sure that the actual reality of it is more complex and it wouldn't be fair to just lay the blame with inventist; it is certainly possible to make a deal with them, as inmotion had.

Unfortunately as consumer the lack of infomation and official support creates uncertainties and I for one hesitated for a long time before comitting to buying a wheel.

I am sure that none of these are news to any of the senior members, and they're probably are all tired of talking about it...

[f0dder1024]

I am talking in addition to the lawsuits. Why deal with the lawsuit, pending tarriffs when you can just wait it out or focus on other markets or products.

[Sidewalk Enforcer]

Loved that Sparta cartoon in the video! Keep doing what you do @Hsiang. Thoroughly enjoy your long-form discussion vlogs.

[Jason McNeil]

On 4/14/2019 at 12:39 PM, Hsiang said:

I hope I am close to the mark but am curious if something I had missed. I couldn't find much about Kingsong nor Gotway but perhaps some more digging would pull up some interesting bits as well.

@Hsiang really enjoy your thoughtful discussions about seldom discussed topics on YouTube, but this video has many factual inaccuracies that have the potential of creating an absolutely wrong impression of the history & manufacturing politics of the Electric Unicycle: 

1. Inmotion & Solowheel Partnership: announced in late 2017, to much aplomb, this disintegrated into a shambles only a few months later. There is no longer any partnership between Shane Chen's Solowheel & Inmotion—you won't find anyone at Inmotion extolling Shane's inventive spirit today. 
2. On the Causes of Ninebot Getting out of the Wheel Business: the true causes are very probably less to do with any Intellectual Property dispute, than Ninebot's inability, or lack of will, to make products that are not plagued by problems—parasitic discharge & high controller failures rate chief among these on the Z10—& potential liability risks. 
3. Ninebot Z10 Agreement: we were never the exclusive dealer for the Z10, at one time it was raised as a possibility during a visit to the Ninebot HQ in January 2018. The decision to drop the Z10, was mine, not Ninebot's, owing to the unsustainable statistical failure rate, other Distributors, EcoDrift in Russia for instance, have come to similar conclusions.
4. Shane's Patent: the extent of Shane's Electric Unicycle patent, which he has said himself, is for addition of padding to the side of the Wheel; a sensible, even an inevitable addition, yes; revolutionary invention?, you can be the judge.

Quote

Is it not the case that the first Solowheel was wholly created by Daniel Wood of FocusDesigns, the original SBU, that predates the Solowheel by several years? Did Daniel not create the first prototype including the firmware, PCB, & other critical components of Electric Unicycle? Why has not Shane, nor anyone else in Solowheel, ever acknowledged this crucial contribution? Also, why is it that Shane signed a license agreement with Janick Simeray in March of 2011, who holds the first Electric Unicycle patent, & it took two years for Shane to repudiated it on the grounds that his product did not fall within the scope of the invention? What exactly was does Shane claim to have invented? Is it simply the padding on the sides of the Wheel?  

The reason why I feel that a correction of these points is necessary, is because this notion of 'anything but Solowheel is Chinese knock-off' is a pernicious myth, that does a great deal of harm to the industry. All the true innovations that have been made to Wheels in the past 2-3 years, have not been the result of expensive squabbling over patents, but manufacturers like Gotway, King Song, & Inmotion making incremental improvements in high current controller designs, motor improvements, packing the interiors with ever larger battery packs, & occasionally, yes, even listening to Customer/Distributor suggestions. 

 

[Rehab1]

On 4/15/2019 at 2:40 AM, f0dder1024 said:

I wonder if the Trump trade war with China might be causing companies to rethink US strategies.

 

16 hours ago, Barrett Roberts said:

After watching the video I think the blame is due to a patent troll and has nothing to do with Trump 

I don’t believe you can blame Trump! 

 

[Marty Backe]

On 4/14/2019 at 8:39 AM, Hsiang said:

There was an interesting thread about the state of the industry (still on the front page) I have been curious about this as well and did some digging around. I hope I am close to the mark but am curious if something I had missed. I couldn't find much about Kingsong nor Gotway but perhaps some more digging would pull up some interesting bits as well.

Oh and sorry for calling the monster "a cheap knockoff" yes I am just jealous since I think that's the next wheel I want to get! =)

Entertaining video as usual   But as @Jason McNeil says, unfortunately you do have many (most ) of the facts wrong.

Even though I could probably qualify to make a video along these lines, to do so accurately would betray too many confidences. When you've been around long enough and have had personal conversations, you learn a lot about this messy industry.

It's people like Jason that can write the real history of EUCs, but it'll probably have to wait until he's retired and out of the game 

P.s. the Z10 is still widely available in the United States from other dealers. EWheels doesn't sell it because they want to be profitable. It's probably easier for a dealer that sells 10 units to work through the quality issues than it is for a seller like EWheels that sells hundreds.  And I'm not convinced that Ninebot is getting out of the EUC business. If you have a direct comment from Ninebot, that's one thing. But I wouldn't put too much weight behind a 2nd or 3rd hand "report".

Keep making videos though 

 

[esaj]

4 hours ago, Jason McNeil said:

On the Causes of Ninebot Getting out of the Wheel Business: the true causes are very probably less to do with any Intellectual Property dispute, than Ninebot's inability, or lack of will, to make products that are not plagued by problems—parasitic discharge & high controller failures rate chief among these on the Z10—& potential liability risks. 

Just a couple of hours ago, in another thread, I was wondering if this is actually true (Ninebot leaving EUC-market completely). Considering that the Z-series is fairly "new" and developing it has cost a ton, I'd be surprised for them to walk away now, but of course if they're bleeding money through warranty claims and end up making zero income or losses on average per wheel sold, it makes sense.

Of course one would hope they'd first fix the issues with the Z-series and kept producing at least the existing models (if just for spare parts for existing owners  ), if not developing anything new. On a quick glance over (not-so-trustworthy) internet sources, Ninebot had estimated it's revenue would be over 3 billion Chinese yuan (about 447 million USD) in 2018, and at least before they were backed by the giant Xiaomi, with revenue >26 billion USD, so they're likely not short on cash or funding though.

[Jason McNeil]

57 minutes ago, esaj said:

Ninebot had estimated it's revenue would be over 3 billion Chinese yuan (about 447 million USD) in 2018

That's true, but did they turn a profit? Many Chinese Companies have some form of Government backing, either at the national level, regional, or other Byzantium form of subsidization—an example is VAT rebates on battery packs. The margin on selling an ES2 to an outfit like Lime was probably 1-2%.   

[walsus]

When it comes to Ninebot, leaving the EUC market can be interpreted in different ways. The rumours have always been that they will no longer develop new models. It would make no sense to stop selling their existing models unless they have too many production issues or they don't sell enough. If that is considered leaving the EUC market is up for debate.

[esaj]

6 minutes ago, Jason McNeil said:

That's true, but did they turn a profit? Many Chinese Companies have some form of Government backing, either at the national level, regional, or other Byzantium form of subsidization—an example is VAT rebates on battery packs. The margin on selling an ES2 to an outfit like Lime was probably 1-2%.   

No idea about profit, I don't think such figures are public (or at least not available for free). I don't really know that much about company economics or investing, but seeing that the company's been growing fast, I'd think it likely that they not only push everything they make into things like R&D and marketing, they could also borrow more money or take in investment rounds to keep growing fast (look here for example:  https://pitchbook.com/profiles/company/111697-75  Venture capital at the tune of $100 million near the end of 2017, completed, but doesn't say if they raised the entire sum). And the amount of revenue they get from EUCs is likely peanuts compared to the 2-wheeled section like scooters and segway-type rides, so it might make more sense to concentrate on that segment and forget the "niche" of EUCs, if the same amount of money burned on 2-wheeled things makes more revenue/growth.

 

10 minutes ago, walsus said:

When it comes to Ninebot, leaving the EUC market can be interpreted in different ways. The rumours have always been that they will no longer develop new models.

Yeah, after the Ninebot P -fiasco and the smaller models in-between, they laid quiet on the EUC-front for a longer while, it was already speculated at that point whether they're ever going to release a new EUC, before the Z-series was announced. That's why I was interested if they'd made a public announcement about stopping the EUC-side of things.

 

12 minutes ago, walsus said:

It would make no sense to stop selling their existing models unless they have too many production issues or they don't sell enough. If that is considered leaving the EUC market is up for debate.

You'd expect that a company wouldn't kill a cow that turns at least a little profit, but if the same amount of resources used there could make more revenue/profit/growth on another segment (ie. the 2-wheeled thingamabobs), it suddenly makes sense to kill that cow and put the money on the other thing. Not saying that this is happening, they could just as well be working on a new model behind the curtains and/or fixing the issues on the Z-series. It's all a guessing game based on more or less reliable rumors, at least as long as they don't officially state that they're stopping the EUC-development/production and concentrating on other things.

From economics standpoint, Ninebot is likely the biggest player in the EUC-field, but my view is that they didn't become big because of the EUCs, but all the other things they've made since (although, AFAIK, they did start out with the Ninebot C/E and only making EUCs).

[Lutalo]

Just keep selling the wheels; and they will come. 

[Hsiang]

8 hours ago, Jason McNeil said:

@Hsiang really enjoy your thoughtful discussions about seldom discussed topics on YouTube, but this video has many factual inaccuracies that have the potential of creating an absolutely wrong impression of the history & manufacturing politics of the Electric Unicycle: 

1. Inmotion & Solowheel Partnership: announced in late 2017, to much aplomb, this disintegrated into a shambles only a few months later. There is no longer any partnership between Shane Chen's Solowheel & Inmotion—you won't find anyone at Inmotion extolling Shane's inventive spirit today. 
2. On the Causes of Ninebot Getting out of the Wheel Business: the true causes are very probably less to do with any Intellectual Property dispute, than Ninebot's inability, or lack of will, to make products that are not plagued by problems—parasitic discharge & high controller failures rate chief among these on the Z10—& potential liability risks. 
3. Ninebot Z10 Agreement: we were never the exclusive dealer for the Z10, at one time it was raised as a possibility during a visit to the Ninebot HQ in January 2018. The decision to drop the Z10, was mine, not Ninebot's, owing to the unsustainable statistical failure rate, other Distributors, EcoDrift in Russia for instance, have come to similar conclusions.
4. Shane's Patent: the extent of Shane's Electric Unicycle patent, which he has said himself, is for addition of padding to the side of the Wheel; a sensible, even an inevitable addition, yes; revolutionary invention?, you can be the judge.

The reason why I feel that a correction of these points is necessary, is because this notion of 'anything but Solowheel is Chinese knock-off' is a pernicious myth, that does a great deal of harm to the industry. All the true innovations that have been made to Wheels in the past 2-3 years, have not been the result of expensive squabbling over patents, but manufacturers like Gotway, King Song, & Inmotion making incremental improvements in high current controller designs, motor improvements, packing the interiors with ever larger battery packs, & occasionally, yes, even listening to Customer/Distributor suggestions. 

 

Now I feel a little bit guilty as I feel that in making the video; I twisted a few arms to get people to talk.

I am happy that @Jason McNeil was willing to clear up a few things as I know that in general for this sort of dealing people like to keep it behind closed doors. I started to read through that thread with @GreenWheel and boy that looks like some Game of Throne quality conflicts, I love it! I'll have to enjoy it later with a glass of red wine and dramatic musics!

I do think that more transparency would be nice as I think that more and more people are starting to care about where and how the product they enjoy comes to be. If I find out that my favorite sweater was made by child labor working 12 hour days, I likely won’t like it as much.. Oh I'll be happy to make a correction video with updated information!

Since ninebot looked like a company with the resources to market and popularize EUC I had high hope for them, but despite liking the Z10, I am unhappy with what I heard of how they work, be it confirmed fact or rumors.

Anyhow I am happy to have some solid news and @Marty Backe, if you want to send me a pm about some unconfirmed news no one has to know about it >=D.

[Jason McNeil]

On 4/16/2019 at 6:52 PM, Hsiang said:

Now I feel a little bit guilty as I feel that in making the video; I twisted a few arms to get people to talk.

I am happy that @Jason McNeil was willing to clear up a few things as I know that in general for this sort of dealing people like to keep it behind closed doors. I started to read through that thread with @GreenWheel and boy that looks like some Game of Throne quality conflicts, I love it! I'll have to enjoy it later with a glass of red wine and dramatic musics!

You shouldn't at all. As subscriber #300 to your channel, I'm sure I am representational in saying that we all thoroughly enjoy your thoughtful & insightful videos, please keep them coming   There was no way of knowing the machinations that go on behind the scene in this business from the outside.
In contrast to the Hoverboard (2015) & eScooter (2018) craze, the EUC market is seeing steady but sustainable growth, doubling or even tripling year-over-year. The learning curve is certainly a factor that will limit universal adoption, but isn't this what gives it some of the appeal; everyone who has mastered the Wheel has earned the epaulets to this elite club.  

There's the hope that someone like Gotway will take up mantle for producing a similar ultrawide 4" Wheel, with the battery pack embedded in the motor cavity. The Z10 concept is fundamentally sound, but with some important flaws (vampire drain & controller peak current issues) that Gotway are more experienced with engineering.   

[erk1024]

@Hsiang As a suggestion, if you do a future vlog on the state of the industry, then maybe ahead of time run it by @Jason McNeil just as a sanity check. The problem is once you put out the information, it ends up in the bloodstream even if later it's debunked. There is a reason that journalists follow their methods of fact checking, and running stories by sources. The less mis-information the better, even if well intentioned.

It does kind of feel like there is going to be a blood bath on the e-scooter front as it seems like too many players are getting in at the same time. There's a saying "excessive profits breeds ruinous competition". But there will be lots of choices for consumers, and the e-scooter market as a whole will benefit from it. I also think that as more people get interested in the personal electric vehicle scene, they will come in contact with EUC's, think they are cool (because they are cool, let's face it) and get one. Scooters will lose coolness points when everybody and their grandma is riding one, and the pev market will diversify. All speculation, but seems reasonable.

[kasenutty]

5 minutes ago, erk1024 said:

Scooters will lose coolness points when everybody and their grandma is riding one

 

Scooters have coolness points?  

[The Fat Unicyclist]

8 hours ago, kasenutty said:

 

Scooters have coolness points?  

Yes, of course they do... It just happens to be an integer somewhere below zero!   

[Jonesq]

I can shed a bit of light as to what happened with the Segway lawsuits. According to the last filing I was able to locate, it appears that the lawsuits were stayed pending final determination of an ITC (International Trade Court) investigation. The court order directs the parties to notify the court once the ITC proceedings have been resolved so that the cases may be reopened. When I looked, no subsequent filings had been made, therefore I assume that the ITC proceedings are still ongoing.