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Hsiang

State of Industry- War and Stalemate?

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I wonder if the Trump trade war with China might be causing companies to rethink US strategies.

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18 hours ago, f0dder1024 said:

I wonder if the Trump trade war with China might be causing companies to rethink US strategies.

I doubt the current administration had anything to do with it as most of the suits I am aware of took place before.

Also I am sure that the actual reality of it is more complex and it wouldn't be fair to just lay the blame with inventist; it is certainly possible to make a deal with them, as inmotion had.

Unfortunately as consumer the lack of infomation and official support creates uncertainties and I for one hesitated for a long time before comitting to buying a wheel.

I am sure that none of these are news to any of the senior members, and they're probably are all tired of talking about it...

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I am talking in addition to the lawsuits. Why deal with the lawsuit, pending tarriffs when you can just wait it out or focus on other markets or products.

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57 minutes ago, esaj said:

Ninebot had estimated it's revenue would be over 3 billion Chinese yuan (about 447 million USD) in 2018

That's true, but did they turn a profit? Many Chinese Companies have some form of Government backing, either at the national level, regional, or other Byzantium form of subsidization—an example is VAT rebates on battery packs. The margin on selling an ES2 to an outfit like Lime was probably 1-2%.   

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When it comes to Ninebot, leaving the EUC market can be interpreted in different ways. The rumours have always been that they will no longer develop new models. It would make no sense to stop selling their existing models unless they have too many production issues or they don't sell enough. If that is considered leaving the EUC market is up for debate.

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6 minutes ago, Jason McNeil said:

That's true, but did they turn a profit? Many Chinese Companies have some form of Government backing, either at the national level, regional, or other Byzantium form of subsidization—an example is VAT rebates on battery packs. The margin on selling an ES2 to an outfit like Lime was probably 1-2%.   

No idea about profit, I don't think such figures are public (or at least not available for free). I don't really know that much about company economics or investing, but seeing that the company's been growing fast, I'd think it likely that they not only push everything they make into things like R&D and marketing, they could also borrow more money or take in investment rounds to keep growing fast (look here for example:  https://pitchbook.com/profiles/company/111697-75  Venture capital at the tune of $100 million near the end of 2017, completed, but doesn't say if they raised the entire sum). And the amount of revenue they get from EUCs is likely peanuts compared to the 2-wheeled section like scooters and segway-type rides, so it might make more sense to concentrate on that segment and forget the "niche" of EUCs, if the same amount of money burned on 2-wheeled things makes more revenue/growth.

 

10 minutes ago, walsus said:

When it comes to Ninebot, leaving the EUC market can be interpreted in different ways. The rumours have always been that they will no longer develop new models.

Yeah, after the Ninebot P -fiasco and the smaller models in-between, they laid quiet on the EUC-front for a longer while, it was already speculated at that point whether they're ever going to release a new EUC, before the Z-series was announced. That's why I was interested if they'd made a public announcement about stopping the EUC-side of things.

 

12 minutes ago, walsus said:

It would make no sense to stop selling their existing models unless they have too many production issues or they don't sell enough. If that is considered leaving the EUC market is up for debate.

You'd expect that a company wouldn't kill a cow that turns at least a little profit, but if the same amount of resources used there could make more revenue/profit/growth on another segment (ie. the 2-wheeled thingamabobs), it suddenly makes sense to kill that cow and put the money on the other thing. Not saying that this is happening, they could just as well be working on a new model behind the curtains and/or fixing the issues on the Z-series. It's all a guessing game based on more or less reliable rumors, at least as long as they don't officially state that they're stopping the EUC-development/production and concentrating on other things.

From economics standpoint, Ninebot is likely the biggest player in the EUC-field, but my view is that they didn't become big because of the EUCs, but all the other things they've made since (although, AFAIK, they did start out with the Ninebot C/E and only making EUCs).

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Just keep selling the wheels; and they will come. :)

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@Hsiang As a suggestion, if you do a future vlog on the state of the industry, then maybe ahead of time run it by @Jason McNeil just as a sanity check. The problem is once you put out the information, it ends up in the bloodstream even if later it's debunked. There is a reason that journalists follow their methods of fact checking, and running stories by sources. The less mis-information the better, even if well intentioned.

It does kind of feel like there is going to be a blood bath on the e-scooter front as it seems like too many players are getting in at the same time. There's a saying "excessive profits breeds ruinous competition". But there will be lots of choices for consumers, and the e-scooter market as a whole will benefit from it. I also think that as more people get interested in the personal electric vehicle scene, they will come in contact with EUC's, think they are cool (because they are cool, let's face it) and get one. Scooters will lose coolness points when everybody and their grandma is riding one, and the pev market will diversify. All speculation, but seems reasonable.

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5 minutes ago, erk1024 said:

Scooters will lose coolness points when everybody and their grandma is riding one

 

Scooters have coolness points? :D 

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8 hours ago, kasenutty said:

 

Scooters have coolness points? :D 

Yes, of course they do... It just happens to be an integer somewhere below zero!   

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I can shed a bit of light as to what happened with the Segway lawsuits. According to the last filing I was able to locate, it appears that the lawsuits were stayed pending final determination of an ITC (International Trade Court) investigation. The court order directs the parties to notify the court once the ITC proceedings have been resolved so that the cases may be reopened. When I looked, no subsequent filings had been made, therefore I assume that the ITC proceedings are still ongoing.
 

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