Any Ukrainian riders?

[Paul A]

https://www.ft.com/content/7b341e46-d375-4817-be67-802b7fa77ef1

March 17 2022

Ukraine and Russia explore neutrality plan in peace talks

Fifteen-point draft deal would involve Kyiv renouncing Nato ambitions in return for security guarantees

Ukraine and Russia have made significant progress on a tentative peace plan including a ceasefire and Russian withdrawal if Kyiv declares neutrality and accepts limits on its armed forces, according to five people briefed on the talks.

Ukrainian and Russian negotiators discussed the proposed deal in full for the first time on Monday, said two of the people.

The 15-point draft considered that day would involve Kyiv renouncing its ambitions to join Nato and promising not to host foreign military bases or weaponry in exchange for protection from allies such as the US, UK and Turkey, the people said.

However, the nature of western guarantees for Ukrainian security — and their acceptability to Moscow — could prove to be a big obstacle to any deal, as could the status of the country’s territories seized by Russia and its proxies in 2014.

A 1994 agreement underpinning Ukrainian security failed to prevent the Kremlin’s aggression against its neighbour.

Although Moscow and Kyiv both said they had made progress on the terms of a deal, Ukrainian officials are sceptical Russia’s President Vladimir Putin is fully committed to peace and worry that Moscow could be buying time to regroup its forces and resume its offensive.

“There’s a likelihood this is trickery and illusion. They lie about everything — Crimea, the build-up of troops on the border, and the ‘hysteria’ over the invasion,” said a Ukrainian source briefed on the talks. “We need to put pressure on them until they have no other choice” but to agree a peace deal, the person added.

 

Putin showed no sign of compromise on Wednesday, vowing Moscow would achieve all of its war aims in Ukraine.

“We will never allow Ukraine to become a stronghold of aggressive actions against our country,” he said.

But a Russian source briefed on the talks said the proposed settlement, if agreed, could give both sides a credible way to declare victory in the war.

“Every side needs a win,” the person said. “He needs to be able to sell it to the people. Putin can say that we wanted to stop Ukraine joining Nato and putting foreign bases and missiles in its territory. If they do that, he can say, ‘I got it.’”
 

[Paul A]

Yes Richardo, the title stating it is the West's fault is very unfortunate.

Could just as easily have been titled something else.

Title is just a title.

The content remains the same, the content is the important part.

[meepmeepmayer]

35 minutes ago, Paul A said:

security guarantee from Russia

Translation: "We'll try again in 10 years, with better preparation and a strategy".

Hopefully nobody takes these peace talks seriously. These are just for show.

Ukrainians do them so nobody can say they didn't try. Does anybody think, after this, that they are going to accept any territorial concessions (Donbass, Crimea) or hope for the best in future relations with Russia ("security guarantees")?

Russians do them because... I don't even know.

There is no way they can come to an agreement, giving up territory is unacceptable to both sides.

The Ukrainians will slowly have to kick the Russians out of their country, until it's done. This is the only way this can realistically end. Russia can't "win", only destroy every piece of civilian architecture they can hit, so what other possibility is there?

Edited March 22, 2022 by meepmeepmayer

[Paul A]

Hopefully Putin will be overthrown quickly.

[RagingGrandpa]

1 hour ago, Paul A said:

security guarantee from Russia

29 minutes ago, meepmeepmayer said:

Translation: "We'll try again in 10 years, with better preparation and a strategy".

It doesn't take a very long memory to know that agreements with Russia are often violated 

Quote

Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances

According to the [1994] memorandum, Russia, the US and the UK confirmed their recognition of Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine becoming parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons and effectively abandoning their nuclear arsenal to Russia and that they agreed to the following:

• Respect Belarusian, Kazakh and Ukrainian independence and sovereignty in the existing borders.
• Refrain from the threat or the use of force against Belarus, Kazakhstan or Ukraine.

[redsnapper]

21 hours ago, meepmeepmayer said:

Translation: "We'll try again in 10 years, with better preparation and a strategy".

Hopefully nobody takes these peace talks seriously. These are just for show.

Ukrainians do them so nobody can say they didn't try. Does anybody think, after this, that they are going to accept any territorial concessions (Donbass, Crimea) or hope for the best in future relations with Russia ("security guarantees")?

Russians do them because... I don't even know.

There is no way they can come to an agreement, giving up territory is unacceptable to both sides.

The Ukrainians will slowly have to kick the Russians out of their country, until it's done. This is the only way this can realistically end. Russia can't "win", only destroy every piece of civilian architecture they can hit, so what other possibility is there?

There is a reason western nations are selective abt the fights they will have with China/Russia (and vice versa) - because the entire world is at stake! Superpowers have always used proxies to project themselves (middle east,south east asia, south america, africa,etc) into areas of strategic importance. For China and Russia democracy on their borders is a threat but even more so is a strategically important border region with a binding military alliance with the west (e.g. NATO). You think Canada can enter into a binding security alliance with China or Russia and the US will not respond forcefully? Foggetaboutit! Will never happen! Don't get me wrong - we benefit immensely from our proximity to the giant next door cuz ain't nobody gonna touch us and risk getting obliterated by them. But because of this proximity Canada has to very carefully consider the US in all of its major decision making (and especially foreign policy decisions).

 In 1960s US put nukes in Turkey - Khrushchev then tried to put missiles in Cuba. The US drew a hard line and the world came close to the edge. USSR blinked but with conditions - the US quietly removed the missiles from Turkey (and arranged for it not to be reported in the press)... This was a necessary compromise to avoid catastrophe (and the likely intention of USSR in the 1st place!). Then US choked Cuba economically for the next 50years as an object lesson to the world.

Western leaders have put Ukraine in an untenable position by encouraging rapprochement without concern for what would happen if Russia made good on the threat that they would not allow this (which they made utterly clear many times). Now Ukraine is the sacrificial lamb getting slaughtered and NATO has hung them out to dry (same thing in Georgia)...  

Maybe if nato/usa goes in to defend Ukraine, Russia backs off etc OR maybe the caged rat (Putin) launches pre-emptive strikes reducing Paris,London,Berlin,NYC,Washington DC etc to cinders! What does a tyrant who has total power in Russia and 10000 nukes (land,sea and air based) do when he is cornered? If it is 10% chance he presses the button, is it worth the risk? 5%? 2%? Where is the line on a planetary existential diceroll? If history is any teacher it is in compromise not in black and white thinking (imo)... Yes Germany had to be stopped in the 2nd world war and there was no compromise possible because Hitler ignored them as soon as they were inked. But in this case, NATO are the ones who disastrously announced in 2008 that Georgia and UKraine (ex USSR satellites) would become members ( in spite of Putin's warnings not to do so )!  Even after this, compromise pathways were possible (and are still possible) - they just have not been tried (neutral Ukraine etc.). If they are tried and fail then maybe western military intervention is the only answer (existential diceroll?) but are we there yet?

Putin is a loathsome despot - someone in Russia should do him in! But barring that the West has to deal with Russia and China as Superpowers must do - very carefully! The world came so close to accidental Armageddon in 1962 - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_close_calls#27_October_1962  - any direct military conflict between Superpowers risks everything for everyone. Im sure if bombs were raining down on my city I would not care about the geopolitics and any help would be welcome help. No matter how you cut it this is horrible for Ukraine...

 

Edited March 23, 2022 by redsnapper

[Paul A]

Putin being deposed seems a possibility.

The sanctions will be crippling in the longer term.

It is the FSB that has been reported to be moving to oust him.

Three weeks in, no progress in war, no goals achieved, calling for conscript of minors, calling for mercenaries, heavy losses in ground forces/soldiers, resorting to long range non precision missiles, strategic port cities of Mariupol and Odessa not captured, low morale/desertion/surrendering/abandonment, logistical problems of supply lines, incompetent/dead commanders, advanced and highly lethal European weapons/aid/funding is getting through, the will of the Ukrainians fighting to death....the list goes on and on.

A stalemate, a long drawn out quagmire.  

Russian elite might very well depose of Putin.

What they gain vs what they lose by keeping Putin.

 

[redsnapper]

7 hours ago, RagingGrandpa said:

It doesn't take a very long memory to know that agreements with Russia are often violated 

Agreed but this goes both ways (as now declassified dox show western promises about NATO expansion were made and broken) - https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-book/russia-programs/2017-12-12/nato-expansion-what-gorbachev-heard-western-leaders-early

The benevolent hegemony of western liberal democracy is schizophrenic about where they will defend freedom (Saudi Arabia is a tight strategic partner of the West but ain't nobody doing much about the tyranny there or the fact that almost all the 9/11 bombers were saudi or the MBS hit job on western journalist Khashoggi (killed on NATO soil) or Saudi bombing campaign of Yemen,etc.. cuz we like their oil ). The west had a democratically elected president of Iran Mosaddegh assassinated in 1953 because he had the gumption to want to look at the books on Iranian oil transactions with the West (Iran's oil!) then they installed and maintained a despot to take his place for 30 years ( The Shaw of Iran ) which gave rise to Khomeini! This is all much more complex but my point is that no one has clean hands  - and much (if not most) interventionism (spreading freedom?? ) has not ended well for many recipients of western benevolence.   https://www.livemint.com/opinion/online-views/another-us-failure-that-has-little-beyond-blood-in-the-sand-to-show-11629909406664.html

All superpowers (good guys - us - and bad - them) have a long history of meddling in other sovereign nations affairs to further their strategic objectives. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_interventions_by_the_United_States

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_interventions_by_the_Soviet_Union

Russian aggression is awful but for Ukraine this was entirely predictable (given its strategic significance to Russia and what Putin had said explicitly going back at least 10 years!)...  I am not defending Putin - he's a tyrant and should be put down (clearly he has made this difficult like most tyrants by a reign of terror within his own country) - Putin is to blame above all! but the West has played a role in this mess that should not be ignored (and it still has a role to play to try diffusing the situation other than by sanctions which according to most will not work to topple Putin but will rather cause the Russian people to suffer greatly while Putin continues to pummel Ukraine).  useful articles on how the west has contributed to this mess - 

https://www.cato.org/commentary/ignored-warnings-how-nato-expansion-led-current-ukraine-tragedy

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/21/opinion/putin-ukraine-nato.html

And lastly - the prescient words of the architect of the Marshall Plan and the cold war Soviet containment strategy, George Kennan  https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/remembering-george-f-kennan from 1998 - “Bluntly stated…expanding NATO would be the most fateful error of American policy in the entire post-Cold War era. Such a decision may be expected to inflame the nationalistic, anti-Western and militaristic tendencies in Russian opinion; to have an adverse effect on the development of Russian democracy; to restore the atmosphere of the cold war to East-West relations, and to impel Russian foreign policy in directions decidedly not to our liking … ”

This discussion can easily become a rabbit hole and probably does not do an iota of good to help Ukrainians, who are the absolute victims here.  

Edited March 22, 2022 by redsnapper

[Paul A]

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3437016-russian-serviceman-surrenders-tank-to-ukraine-after-kyiv-offers-10000-reward-citizenship-prospects.html

22.03.2022

Russian serviceman surrenders tank to Ukraine after Kyiv offers $10,000 reward, citizenship prospects.

A Russian tank crew member has surrendered to the Ukrainian forces and handed over his fully operable tank after seeing in his phone a targeted text with the Ukrainian government’s offer that guaranteed safety, a financial reward, as well as potential Ukrainian citizenship once the war is over.

The news was shared on Facebook by Viktor Andrusiv, adviser to the Minister of Internal Affairs.

"A few days ago I wrote of the news that finally exposes the splits in the Russian army. Now I can elaborate. I wanted to show you the video, but our special services asked me not to. A Russian soldier handed us his tank for a reward," said the official.

Over the past few weeks, the National Police has identified the phone numbers used by Russian forces – and these were Ukrainian numbers. He clarified that messages are constantly sent to these numbers with instructions on how to surrender and hand over their armored equipment.

 

Edited March 22, 2022 by Paul A

[Paul A]

Redsnapper, yes, no one ever has clean hands.

It just takes too much time and effort to read all the histories and wars.....the never ending rabbit hole.

[redsnapper]

On 3/22/2022 at 3:05 PM, Paul A said:

Redsnapper, yes, no one ever has clean hands.

It just takes too much time and effort to read all the histories and wars.....the never ending rabbit hole.

sadly yes - we in the west are quick to forget the litany of failed western interventions because we don't really pay the price ( our soldiers and their families do but not our politicians or our societies as a whole ) - the biggest price by far is paid in blood and tears of the people whose countries get wrecked then are left to pickup the pieces...  As great as liberal democracy is,  it is next to impossible to export at the end of a rifle barrel and in places where there is little or no history of democracy (which is mostly where we try to spread our benevolence) ... Most (if not all) prefer to live with their domestic despots than to have foreigners invade their countries to liberate them and show them a ''proper'' way to govern.  Iraq (which under Saddam was at least a stable and functioning nation state even considered progressive by regional standards!) was sent back into the stone age by western intervention and the Bush Doctrine! That's how liberators become  occupiers then become the enemy. Great intentions - disastrous results...

Edited March 24, 2022 by redsnapper

[Richardo]

More potential bad news for Europe. At least winter is (mostly) over.

 

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2022/03/geopolitical-tensions-on-europes-southwestern-flank-risk-worsening-eus-energy-crisis.html

[Funky]

Borders/country lines..  If Russia is so scared of so said NATO or USA, build a fucking dome over it self. (Or join them..) Every country should be it's self eco system. Russia should have no say what so ever, what other country (Ukraine) wanna do, so on.. Just shows how stupid we really can be. Some dipshit's choses to start a war and that's - that. Fuck regular people and whole country. If we had no "president's and government's" everyone would be the same regular "Joe", there would be no war and dum shit like that.

Old world kings, same shit as "presidents" One dipshit choses what to do. And common people must follow orders, like it or not - Get Fucked.

Deep down i wish Russia start's nuking. Then rest of the world joins the fun. At least the cancer of world will be gone. We as humanity are long over do a hard reset. <3

Whole world should be under one flag and be done. No countries - No enemies - No problem - No war.

Heck i won't lie, i didn't know about NATO (Sure i have heard that name somewhere..) before putin war.. Just shows how little it matters for us regular people and daily life.. As we don't really care what happens next country, because we would never in life go there. Yet because we have "leaders" and they like to measure their dicks, we common people have to pay for their mistakes.

[Richardo]

Thats what makes this such a weird topic. Of course @Funky is right "Every country should be it's self eco system. Russia should have no say what so ever, what other country (Ukraine) wanna do"

But like almost every sentence with "should" in it, that's a counterfactual. Countries care deeply about what their neighbors are up to. The USA was acting immorally to try and destroy Cuba, and with all the counter-democratic revolutions we've sponsored in Latin America. Russia is wrong to interfere with Ukraine, Syria, Georgia, etc. Both of them have done lots of immoral shit they shouldn't have done even to their own populations! 

I'm glad I don't have to come up with solutions for this stuff.

 

Please don't take this post to mean I support Russia, I don't. 

Edited March 22, 2022 by Richardo

[redsnapper]

8 hours ago, meepmeepmayer said:

Either countries are souvereign or they are not. You cannot go "but not this time..." then, and then blame anybody but the aggressor.

Pretending Russia isn't Russia and every country is the same also doesn't work. Russia has no legitimate "security interests" or whatever that NATO could or does threaten.

The sad truth is that sovereign states who border super powers (or even non-border nations with relevant strategic assets) are not truly free to do whatever they want domestically because of the elephant on the other side of the bed... this guys explains it well...

 

Edited March 22, 2022 by redsnapper

[Paul A]

Russian soldier complains troops ‘have frostbite’ and low morale in intercepted call

1.1M views · 9 hours ago

The Sun
2.53M subscribers

 

[Paul A]

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3437811-crime-against-humanity-russia-used-phosphorus-munitions-in-irpin.html

Wednesday, 23 March 2022

Crime against humanity: Russia used phosphorus munitions in Irpin

On March 22, Russian troops used phosphorus munitions in their attack on the town of Irpin, Kyiv region.

Mayor of Irpin Oleksandr Markushyn wrote this on Telegram, Ukrinform reports.

“Late in the evening on March 22, the Russian invaders used banned phosphorus munitions over the northwestern outskirts of Kyiv. The approximate area of destruction is Hostomel-Irpin," he wrote.

Markushyn stressed that the use of such weapons against civilians is a crime against humanity and a violation of the 1949 Geneva Conventions.

 

[Paul A]

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3437879-european-commission-proposes-allocation-of-eur-34b-to-eu-countries-welcoming-refugees-from-ukraine.html

Wednesday, 23 March 2022

European Commission proposes allocation of EUR 3.4B to EU countries welcoming refugees from Ukraine

The European Commission has proposed that EUR 3.4 billion be allocated from the EU's recovery assistance fund, the so-called REACT-EU, to support Member States welcoming and accommodating refugees fleeing the war in Ukraine.

Ukrinform reports this with a reference to the website of the European Commission.

 

It is noted that the allocation of such targeted financing will speed-up Member States' access to funds to spend on infrastructure, housing, equipment and services in employment, education, social inclusion, healthcare and childcare.

Since the beginning of the crisis in Ukraine in 2014, the EU and its Member States have contributed over EUR 1 billion in humanitarian and early recovery aid to the country. 

 

[Paul A]

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3437734-none-of-five-missiles-fired-on-odesa-hit-target.html

Wednesday, 23 March 2022

None of five missiles fired on Odesa hit target

Missile attacks from enemy ships on Odesa coast do not hit their targets and are intended primarily to intimidate residents.

"The enemy fired five missiles from the Black Sea, but none of them hit the target," Officer of the Operational Command "South" Vladyslav Nazarov posted on Telegram.

According to him, as of March 23, the situation in Odesa is stable and under control, the enemy continues to exert psychological pressure on the civilian population of the region, shelling the coastal strip. Ukraine’s air defense system and other units of the Armed Forces take measures to prevent enemy naval landings.

As reported, on Tuesday, March 22, enemy ships fired five missiles on a populated locality of Odesa region. No casualties were reported.

[Paul A]

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3438158-ukraine-gets-first-deliveries-of-800m-in-new-us-military-aid.html

23.03.2022

Ukraine gets first deliveries of $800M in new U.S. military aid

 

The first deliveries of the $800 million in new military aid that U.S. President Joe Biden is sending to Ukraine have started to arrive in the country.

That's according to a U.S. administration official, Ukrinform reports, referring to CNN.

The U.S. will continue to move the rest of the $800 million into Ukraine as quickly as possible, the official said.

The U.S. has nearly completed the delivery of most of the $200 million package Biden announced on March 12, including all of the Stinger anti-air systems and most of the Javelin anti-armor missiles.

Edited March 23, 2022 by Paul A
Typo

[Paul A]

Cost of the upgraded Russian T-72B3 tank used in Ukraine is $1-2m.

Cost of an NLAW missile is $40k USD.

Cost of a Stinger missile is $38k USD.

Cost of a Javelin missile is $175k USD.

 

Persuading Russian soldiers to surrender for $10k each is a great bargain.

Get a fully operational tank as well.

[Paul A]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/03/23/biden-russia-sanctions-brussels/

March 23, 2022

Biden and Europeans to announce major plan to redirect gas to Europe

Biden, in Brussels on Friday, plans to join European leaders in announcing an effort to ship liquified natural gas to Europe and impose new sanctions on Russia.

BRUSSELS — President Biden and European leaders are expected to announce a major initiative to direct shipments of liquefied natural gas to Europe during his visit to Brussels this week, part of a broader effort to help reduce Europe’s dependence on Russian energy, according to three U.S. officials familiar with the plan.

 

The announcement, a dramatic effort to deprive Russia of leverage as it continues to batter Ukraine, would mark an unusual move to reorder the world’s energy flow — a shift that could have an impact long after the war is over. It comes as European officials have asked the United States to do more to help them cut their reliance on Russia for oil and natural gas.

Biden is also expected to use his stop in Brussels on Thursday and Friday — where he is meeting with NATO, the Group of Seven and the European Council — to announce additional sanctions against Moscow, as well as a crackdown on evasions of the current sanctions.

[Paul A]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/03/23/russia-us-military-leaders-communication/

March 23, 2022

Top Russian military leaders repeatedly decline calls from U.S., prompting fears of ‘sleepwalking into war

Lack of communication leaves the world’s two largest nuclear powers in the dark about explanations for military movements from senior officials.

Repeated attempts by the United States’ top defense and military leaders to speak with their Russian counterparts have been rejected by Moscow for the last month, leaving the world’s two largest nuclear powers in the dark about explanations for military movements and raising fears of a major miscalculation or battlefield accident.

 

Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Gen. Mark A. Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, have tried to set up phone calls with Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Gen. Valery Gerasimov but the Russians “have so far declined to engage,” said Pentagon spokesman John Kirby in a statement Wednesday.

The attempted calls by Austin and Milley, which have not previously been reported, come as Russia conducts operations near the borders of NATO members Poland and Romania while the United States and its European allies conduct air-policing operations over the Baltic Sea and pour weapons and equipment into Ukraine by ground transport.

 

 

Moscow and Washington maintain a deconfliction channel but current and former officials say contact from higher-ranking military leaders is needed to avoid unnecessary escalation or confusion.

“There is a high risk of escalation without the firebreak of direct contact between the most senior officials,” said James Stavridis, who served as the Supreme Allied Commander at NATO from 2009 to 2013. “Very young people are flying in jets, operating warships, and conducting combat operations in the Ukrainian war. They are not seasoned diplomats, and their actions in the heat of operations can be misunderstood.”

“We must avoid a scenario of NATO and Russia sleepwalking into war because senior leaders can’t pick up a phone and explain to each other what is happening,” he added.

 

Russia’s recent use of hypersonic missiles and other sophisticated weaponry against targets in western Ukraine have underscored the threat of spillover into a broader confrontation.

“A nightmare scenario would be a Russian missile or attack aircraft that destroys a U.S. command post across the Polish-Ukrainian border,” said Stavridis, a retired admiral. “A local commander might respond immediately, thinking the event was a precursor to a wider attack. This could lead to rapid and irreversible escalation, to include potential use of nuclear weapons.”

 

 

Stavridis said when he was Supreme Allied Commander, he could dial his Russian counterpart anytime “and did on several occasions to clarify a situation and de-escalate.”

 

[Paul A]

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3438353-russian-landing-ship-destroyed-in-ukraines-black-sea-port-of-berdiansk.html

Thursday, 24 March

Russian landing ship destroyed in Ukraine’s Black Sea port of Berdiansk

Near the port of Berdyansk on the morning of March 24, the Ukrainian Navy destroyed a Russian large landing ship of Russian troops.

That’s according to the Ukrainian Navy, Ukrinform reports.

 

"The Orsk large landing ship of the Russian occupiers was destroyed near the port of Berdiansk," the statement said.

Locals report two powerful explosions at 6:40 on Thursday. The blasts were heard throughout the city.

As reported earlier, Russian invaders see the port of Berdiansk as strategically important for delivering equipment, ammunition, and manpower to the southern regions of Ukraine.

 

[Wolverine]