Any Ukrainian riders?

[Paul A]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/19/russia-ukraine-war-news-putin-live-updates/#link-D33DZFSN3RGLFOKD3CITCXMG2Q

By Rachel Lerman and Cat Zakrzewski10:40 a.m.

 

Elon Musk’s Starlink is keeping Ukrainians online when traditional Internet fails

 

The Times of London reports that a Ukrainian unit is using Starlink to connect its drones attacking Russian forces.

There are some concerns that accompany the use of the terminals.

Like all satellite communications during war, Starlink signals could be used to detect the location of the antennas, experts say.

[Paul A]

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/18/ukraine-military-aid-shipments/

By Steve Hendrix

Yesterday at 12:27 p.m. EDT

 

Inside the transfer of foreign military equipment to Ukrainian soldiers

Long-distance convoys deliver armor-plated pickups, repainted SUVs, body armor and other vital gear at clandestine hand off.

 

The convoy was carrying 45 vehicles — retrofitted Jeeps, ambulances, an armored bank truck and an army field kitchen — as well as 24 tons of diesel.

It had traveled overnight from Lithuania as part of a swelling supply network racing to catch up with the return of war to Europe.

 

With Ukraine’s own factories shut down by shelling, its forces rely increasingly on volunteer, pop-up supply chains like this one for vital gear, including body armor, medical supplies and the pickup trucks and SUVs they covet as fighting vehicles.

 

A second convoy was scheduled to arrive later in the day, packed with generators, radios, surveillance drones, night-vision gear and, most coveted of all, almost 7,000 bulletproof vests and helmets. For the soldiers, they are a lifeline.

 

“That is what we need the most,” said Lt. Andrey Bystriyk, one of the many Ukrainian fighters who had traveled across his war-ravaged country to meet the convoys. His blue eyes teared up when he talked about the aid pouring in from neighboring countries.

 

Lt. Andrey Bystriyk of the Zaporizhzhia Territorial Defense Brigade arrives to receive a vehicle from a supply convoy. (Arturas Morozovas for The Washington Post)

 

 

Boots, tourniquets and satellite phones

The journey began hundreds of miles to the north in a warehouse in Lithuania, a country not usually thought of as a military supply hub.

But the tiny Baltic nation has seen a huge outpouring of support for Ukraine as citizens imagine what Russian President Vladimir Putin might have in store for them should he prevail in his current invasion. Vilnius, Lithuania’s small medieval-era capital, is filled with blue-and-yellow Ukrainian flags.

Receiving much of the donated money and supplies is Blue and Yellow, a nonprofit founded in 2014 to supply Ukrainians fighting the takeover of eastern parts of their country by Russian-backed separatists.

 

“Everything in Europe is selling out,” said Zemyna Bliumenzonaite, a Blue and Yellow staffer. “But we are getting more requests than ever.”

She held out her phone to show some of the texts she gets from soldiers in Ukraine. One named “Kruk” asked for 1,000 tourniquets and 40 individual first-aid kits. She tells him they will be in the next convoy.

“You are our Guardian Angel,” he writes back.

 

Donated and armor-plated

“I heard they needed bigger vehicles and four-wheel drives,” said Dainius Navikas, 43, a Vilnius management consultant who immediately thought of his black 2015 Grand Cherokee. “I had no choice. The Ukrainians are fighting for us.”

Navikas and his wife drove the Jeep — along with an extra set of winter tires — to a designated garage on the outskirts of the Lithuanian capital. They found a lot packed with dozens of vehicles ready to be processed and shipped to Ukraine.

Some had been signed over by their owners. Others had been bought by Blue and Yellow.

 

Jonas Ohman, founder of the nonprofit group Blue and Yellow, at a parking lot full of vehicles being prepared for Ukrainian soldiers. (Arturas Morozovas for The Washington Post)

 

“When they hear we are buying for Ukraine, a lot them of them drop the price immediately,” said Lukas Pacevicius, the owner of the garage, who has largely suspended his regular business activities.

Working overnights and weekends, mechanics check the engines; they send the vehicles to transmission or brake shops if needed. Armor plating is welded to some of the pickups, following specifications provided by the soldiers.

Two men wearing hazmat suits and respirators, well-practiced in painting and not too fastidious, transformed Navikas’s glossy black Grand Cherokee into a dull green patrol vehicle in under 20 minutes. And then a Mercedes Sprinter, and then a Nissan Pathfinder. An olive mist hung over the entire workshop.

 

Volunteers spray-paint a car for the soldiers. (Arturas Morozovas for The Washington Post)

 

Volunteers load a military field kitchen onto a truck. (Arturas Morozovas for The Washington Post)

 

‘Our firepower, our mobility’

Lt. Bystriyk, with the Zaporizhzhia Territorial Defense Brigade, had just endured his own all-night drive to reach the rendezvous.

His was one of about 20 Ukrainian units, both regular military and volunteer militia, that had dispatched representatives to meet the convoy.

 

“Stingers and Javelins are critical, of course,” he said of the antiaircraft and antitank missiles. “But for us, these vehicles are essential. They are our firepower, our mobility.”

Bystriyk looked for a truck that his men could mount with a rocket launcher or machine gun, creating one of the “specials” common among fighters in Libya, Syria and other recent hot spots. There weren’t as many pickups as in a delivery a week earlier, but he was glad to see Pathfinders, Freelanders, Pajeros.

Videos posted by Ukrainian fighters on social media show teams in SUVs like these outmaneuvering Russian armored vehicles, popping out from forests or side streets to hit them with rocket-propelled grenades and dashing away.

 

The convoy with military supplies moves on a Polish highway toward the border with Ukraine. (Arturas Morozovas for The Washington Post)

[Paul A]

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3434382-about-208000-ukrainian-refugees-arrive-in-germany.html

Saturday, 19 March 2022

About 208,000 Ukrainian refugees arrive in Germany

That's according to the German Federal Police, Ukrinform reports.

According to official data, there are 207,742 Ukrainians in the country, but the real figure may be higher or lower, as checks at internal EU borders are not carried out, and the registration process, and thus the provision of assistance and the settlement of social issues, is not finalized. Calculations are made mainly on the basis of inspections on public transport used by refugees to get to German cities.

At the same time, the Federal Ministry of the Interior and Community (BMI) launched the aid portal Germany4Ukraine.de in four languages. It is an information platform for refugees from Ukraine, thanks to which they receive a reliable source of verified information with basic recommendations on the first steps upon arrival in Germany.

[Paul A]

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3434145-morawiecki-poland-supports-full-trade-blockade-of-russia.html

Saturday, 19 March 2022

Morawiecki: Poland supports full trade blockade of Russia

Poland has proposed to impose a complete trade blockade of Russia both on land and at sea. Warsaw supports the actions of protesters who have been blocking the movement of Russian and Belarusian trucks on the Polish-Belarusian border on Saturday, March 19.

Poland’s Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said this during a press conference in Lubiczów near Warsaw on Saturday, an Ukrinform correspondent reports.

“Poland proposes to add a trade blockade to the existing package of sanctions as soon as possible. This means seaports, that is, a ban from entering ports for vessels flying a Russian flag, carrying Russian goods, as well as ban on trade by land,” said Morawiecki.

He added that this would make Russia think once again and look into stopping the brutal war now.

The head of the Polish government expressed hope that another ‘sobering-up’ would dawn upon European leaders and that the European Council would adopt the next package of sanctions targeting Russia.

 

He has noted that he unequivocally supported the protesters who had blocked the movement of Russian and Belarusian trucks at the Polish border with Belarus Saturday, March 19.

Hundreds of Ukrainian and Polish activists have reportedly launched a blockade of Russian and Belarusian trucks at the Kozłowiczy - Kukuryki checkpoint on the Polish-Belarusian border on Saturday morning. They demand that any trade be suspended with the aggressor power as long as Russia is waging war against Ukraine

[Paul A]

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3434114-russia-mines-sea-routes-from-bosphorus-to-odesa-blames-ukraine-media.html

Saturday, 19 March 2022

Russia mines sea routes from Bosphorus to Odesa, blames Ukraine - media

Russia has planted mines along the recommended commercial sea routes stretching from the Bosphorus Strait to the Odesa and simultaneously alleged that those were “Ukrainian” mines.

Andrii Klymenko, editor-in-chief of the BlackSeaNews portal and co-founder of the Black Sea Institute for Strategic Studies, reported the news on Facebook, according to Ukrinform.

“The real danger at sea: Russia has mined the recommended routes from the Bosphorus to Odesa and said that these are Ukrainian mines. Another dangerous misinformation by the enemy,” Klymenko said.

The expert clarified that the port of Sochi issued a warning on March 18, addressing ship owners and captains in the region about the threat of ‘Ukrainian Navy mines drifting in the Black Sea’.

 

In particular, the document signed by Sochi Port Captain Vyacheslav Rumyantsev reads: “According to the hydrographic service of the Black Sea Fleet, moored naval mines of the Ukrainian Navy close to the ports of Odesa, Ochakiv, Chornomorsk, Pivdennyi have drifted away amid storm.”

Furthermore, the notice for ‘all shipowners and captains” recommends that they take special precautions when sailing in the southwestern and northwestern parts of the Black Sea due to the possibility of drifting mines setting off.

In Klymenko’s opinion, this warning is aimed at preventing commercial maritime traffic in the Black Sea and requires immediate deployment into the Black Sea of the NATO Permanent Mine and Trawler Group.

He also noted that ‘it is impossible to count the number of mines drifting in the stormy sea on principle as only those who planted them can do so.

On February 27, Turkey closed the Bosphorus and the Dardanelles to Russian warships. Sanctions bar the ships of the Russian Pacific, Black Sea, and Baltic Fleets from entering the Black Sea.

[Paul A]

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3434090-invaders-massively-mining-settlements-as-they-retreat-national-guard.html

Saturday, 19 March 2022

Invaders massively mining settlements as they retreat - National Guard

The enemy is planting mines in Ukrainian settlements, mostly retreating from their positions.

That’s according to the press service of the National Guard of Ukraine (NGU), Ukrinform reports.

"The enemy is mining Ukrainian settlements, mostly retreating from their positions. The Russicsts are insidious – they don’t shy away from any means of harming civilians," the statement said.

Elaborating on the invaders’ moves, the NGU noted that mines and other explosive devices can be planted anywhere: in abandoned homes, on the streets, in playgrounds, and in suburban areas: in fields, forests, ponds, roadsides, etc.

 

"In cities, first of all, these are items that can be of any value in an occupied city: a mobile phone, weapons or their parts, first aid kits, food kits, children's toys, etc. Cases where bodies are mined have also been recorded. In forests and villages, these are mostly booby traps that should actually expose caches or hideouts," the force said.

The NGU also explained the action protocol in cases where a suspicious item is discovered.

"Never touch it. Report the discovered item immediately to the SES (101) or Police (102). Warn other people around you on a possible threat. Get as far away from the suspicious item as possible. Wait for the bomb team to arrive and show them the exact location of the item," the National Guard said.

[Paul A]

Russian cosmonauts board ISS wearing colours of Ukraine flag

713,837 views

Mar 19, 2022

Guardian News

2.4M subscribers

 

Three Russian cosmonauts have arrived at the International Space Station wearing yellow flight suits with blue accents, colours that match the Ukrainian flag.

 

 

_____________________________________

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-ridicules-idea-that-cosmonauts-wore-yellow-support-ukraine-2022-03-19/

March 20, 2022

Russia ridicules idea that cosmonauts wore yellow in support of Ukraine

March 19 (Reuters) - Russia's space agency on Saturday dismissed Western media reports suggesting Russian cosmonauts joining the International Space Station (ISS) had chosen to wear yellow suits with a blue trim in support of Ukraine.

 

"Sometimes yellow is just yellow," Roscosmos's press service said on its Telegram channel.

"The flight suits of the new crew are made in the colours of the emblem of the Bauman Moscow State Technical University, which all three cosmonauts graduated from ... To see the Ukrainian flag everywhere and in everything is crazy."

Roscosmos Director-General Dmitry Rogozin was more acerbic, saying on his personal Telegram channel that Russian cosmonauts had no sympathy for Ukrainian nationalists.

 

In a live-streamed news conference from the ISS on Friday, veteran cosmonaut Oleg Artemyev, the mission commander, was asked about the suits.

"Every crew picks a colour that looks different. It was our turn to pick a colour," he said. "The truth is, we had accumulated a lot of yellow fabric, so we needed to use it up. That's why we had to wear yellow flight suits."

On Saturday evening, he was quoted on Roscosmos's Telegram channel as saying the suits had been made six months ago, and that the three cosmonauts had chosen the colours of their alma mater.

"Colour is just colour. It has nothing to do with Ukraine," he said. "In these days, even though we are in space, we are together with our president and people!"

 

Russia invaded Ukraine, which has a blue and yellow flag, on Feb. 24.

The ensuing fighting has killed thousands of people, devastated parts of cities and caused millions of Ukrainians to flee their homes, according to the United Nations.

Rogozin has suggested that U.S. sanctions imposed in response to the invasion could destroy ISS teamwork and lead to the space station falling out of orbit.

Officials at the U.S. space agency, NASA, have said U.S. and Russian crew members are aware of events on Earth but that their work has not been affected by geopolitical tensions.

 

 

 

[Paul A]

NLAW - Anti-tank Weapon

303,423 views

Jun 26, 2015

Saab

110K subscribers

NLAW (Next generation Light Anti-tank Weapon) eliminates even the most advanced tanks.

Using NLAW an individual soldier has the ability to take out any heavily-protected armoured vehicle, including a main battle tank, with a single shot.

It is best-in-class for dismounted light forces that operate in all environments, including built-up areas.

 

 

 

[Paul A]

 

[Paul A]

Ukrainians' escape by rail, explained

410,459 views

Mar 19, 2022

Vox

10.5M subscribers

 

What it's like to flee Ukraine

 

[level9]

Yeah those rail lines are super important. What they didn't mention are some additional reasons why.. the average salary in Ukraine is ~$500 US/month and the household car ownership rate is ~29%. For most Ukrainians, rail is the only way out.

[Wolverine]

Former Nato Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen says Finland has a "window of opportunity."

"I think it would be in the self-interest of Finland and Sweden to join Nato right now. Because now they have a window of opportunity. Putin is engaged [somewhere else], so that window might soon close again," he told the United States government-funded organisation.

On that front, Fogh Rasmussen said Finnish and Swedish membership in the alliance was important to send a "clear signal that Nato's door remains open and Nato will never accept Putin as the doorman."

https://yle.fi/news/3-12357373

[Wolverine]

Ex-Nato secretary general: "Finland and Sweden could become members overnight"

"If Finland and Sweden applied for membership, we could decide on it overnight. You could be a member the very next day because you meet all the necessary membership criteria," said Rasmussen, who was Nato Secretary General from 2009 to 2014.

https://yle.fi/news/3-12272467

I am afraid that no matter how much we want this, unfortunately decisions are being made very slowly in Finland, and that is why the door may close before we make up our mind.

[Paul A]

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3434905-defense-ministry-sees-signs-of-belarusian-armed-forces-preparing-for-invasion-of-ukraine.html

Sunday, 20 March 2022

Defense Ministry sees signs of Belarusian armed forces preparing for invasion of Ukraine

There are signs that the Belarusian armed forces are preparing for a direct invasion of Ukraine.

The Ukrainian Defense Ministry said this in a statement posted on Facebook, Ukrinform reports.

According to the statement, in the Polissia direction, the enemy is trying to gain a foothold on the captured frontiers, expects the strengthening of the group due to the arrival of reserves, and is preparing to attack the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv.

The invaders resumed air reconnaissance and shelling of Ukrainian positions using army aircraft and artillery.

[Paul A]

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3434893-four-russian-warships-shell-mariupol.html

Sunday, 20 March 2022

Four Russian warships shell Mariupol

Four warships of the Russian Navy have shelled the city of Mariupol.

The Azov Special Operations Detachment said this in a post on its Telegram channel, Ukrinform reports.

"The city of Mariupol has just been shelled by four Russian Navy ships. The enemy continues to cynically destroy the Ukrainian city, using all available arsenals. After aircraft, artillery, various systems and tanks, the Russian occupiers are destroying the city with heavy weapons of warships," the statement said.

[Paul A]

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3434923-russian-authorities-want-to-send-minors-to-war-in-ukraine-intelligence.html

Sunday, 20 March 2022

Russian authorities want to send minors to war in Ukraine - intelligence

Due to the lack of manpower to replenish the army, the Kremlin leadership is considering involving minors in the war in Ukraine.

According to Ukrinform, the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine said this in a post on Facebook.

A respective order "On organizing the involvement of members of the Yunarmiya military-patriotic public movement in conducting a special operation on Ukrainian territory" was signed by Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu

 

The order says reports should be prepared on the potential human reserve aged 17-18 to be involved in hostilities.

The top military leadership of the Russian Federation must submit proposals for the training of these personnel as soon as possible.

Gennady Zhidko, the head of the main military-political department of the Russian Federation, is in charge of monitoring the implementation of the order.

Yunarmiya is a Russian children's and youth military organization under the Russian Ministry of Defense.

It is engaged in radical propaganda work among young people in Russia.

Children over the age of eight become members of the organization.

 

[Paul A]

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-other_news/3434980-mariupol-after-russian-bombing.html

Sunday, 20 March 2022

Footage from a drone shows the Ukrainian city of Mariupol destroyed by Russia.

 

[Paul A]

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3435060-un-10m-ukrainians-have-fled-since-start-of-russian-aggression.html

Sunday, 20 March 2022

UN: 10M Ukrainians have fled since start of Russian aggression

Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine started on February 24, at least 10 million Ukrainians have been forced to left their homes.

“The war in Ukraine is so devastating that 10 million have fled — either displaced inside the country, or as refugees abroad,” UN High Commissioner for Refugees Filippo Grandi posted on Twitter.

Among the responsibilities of those who wage war, everywhere in the world, is the suffering inflicted on civilians who are forced to flee their homes, Grandi stressed.

[Paul A]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/20/russia-ukraine-military-offensive/

By Liz Sly and Dan Lamothe

Yesterday at 5:00 a.m. EDT

Russia’s war for Ukraine could be headed toward stalemate

Casualties, equipment losses and a lack of progress on the ground are taking an unsustainable toll, experts say.

 

Russia’s attempt to conquer Ukraine could be headed toward a stalemate as heavy casualties and equipment losses take a toll on unprepared Russian forces that have failed so far to achieve any of their initial objectives, Western officials and military experts say.

The front lines have barely moved in more than a week. Russians are being killed or injured at the rate of up to 1,000 a day, according to Western intelligence estimates, and more, according to Ukrainian ones.

 

Videos of burned-out tanks and abandoned convoys stream constantly on Ukrainian social media accounts, alongside footage of dead Russian soldiers, surrendering Russian soldiers, hungry Russian soldiers stealing chickens from local farmers — and, increasingly, the mangled bodies of Ukrainian civilians dying in missile and artillery attacks.

 

The ferocity of the Russian assault has only intensified as the advances have slowed, with Russia substituting harsh bombardments of civilian populations for progress on the battlefield. Everyday Ukrainians living in cities surrounded, or partially surrounded, by Russian troops are paying the price for a war effort that began to go wrong in the first hours.

But in the absence of substantive progress on the ground and given the scale of the losses being inflicted on its ranks, Russia’s military campaign could soon become unsustainable, with troops unable to advance because they lack sufficient manpower, supplies and munitions, analysts and officials say.

 

The next two weeks could be critical in determining the outcome of the entire war, they say. Unless Russia can swiftly improve its supply lines, bring reinforcements and bolster the flagging morale of the troops on the ground, its goals may become impossible to achieve.

 

“I don’t think Ukraine forces can push Russian forces out of Ukraine, but I also don’t think Russian forces can take that much more of Ukraine,” said Rob Lee, a former U.S. Marine who is now a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute.

An assessment Saturday by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) went further. “Ukrainian forces have defeated the initial campaign of this war,” it said. The conflict, it said, has now reached “a stalemate.”

 

Events on the battlefield could yet tilt in a different direction: for example, if the Russians succeed in capturing the besieged and desperate city of Mariupol, freeing up their forces to bolster their offensive elsewhere.

 

But in a widely shared article this week, a retired U.S. general and a European military academic argue that the Russian force is close to reaching what military strategists call the “culminating point” of its offensive, meaning that it will have reached the limits of its capacity to wage the war it set out to prosecute.

“The Russian war of conquest in Ukraine is now entering a critical phase; a race to reach the culminating point of Russia’s offensive capacity and Ukraine’s defensive capacity” wrote retired Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges and Julian Lindley-French, who chairs the Alphen Group think tank in the Netherlands. They advocate a sustained effort by the United States and its allies to provide military supplies to Ukraine in hopes that Ukrainian forces can take advantage of this “window of opportunity” to win concessions at the negotiating table.

 

“I believe that Russia does not have the time, manpower or ammunition to sustain what they are doing now,” Hodges, who is now with the Washington-based Center for European Policy Analysis, said in an interview. The assessment assumes, he says, that the West continues to step up military support for Ukraine, thereby enabling Ukrainian forces to sustain the tempo of their resistance.

 

The Russian military still has overwhelming superiority in terms of numbers and equipment compared with the smaller and more lightly armed Ukrainian military. Russia could yet turn the fight around if it is able to replenish its manpower and supplies, cautioned Lindley-French.

“It would be a big mistake to think that Russia cannot sustain this war,” he said. “They can’t now, but they could fix it” by adjusting tactics and bringing in reinforcements.

 

However, he added, “Unless the Russians can really improve their game and start rotating [troop] formations into the front line, this particular force is facing a problem.”

 

U.S. officials decline to make public predictions about the course of the war but say there are clear indications that the Russians are struggling to sustain the existing forces they have and are scrambling to find reinforcements and resolve their logistical difficulties.

Appeals to China for military assistance, a so far fruitless attempt to recruit Syrians and talk of bringing in reinforcements from other parts of Russia and the breakaway territory of South Ossetia in Georgia have not yet produced evidence that fresh troops are on the way, the officials say.

 

“Just that they’re talking about resupply and re-sourcing tells you they are beginning to get concerned about longevity here,” said a senior U.S. Defense Department official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive subjects.

“It’s quite extraordinary, three weeks in, that they are still having these same logistical and sustainment issues, and that they are considering additional ways to overcome these shortages from outside Ukraine,” the official added.

 

The Russian troops that initially surged into Ukraine from at least four directions had expected to be welcomed as liberators and came unprepared for a long fight, officials and experts say. Instead, the Russians encountered fierce resistance, and now they are strung out along multiple fronts, bogged down in manpower-intensive sieges and without preplanned supply lines to sustain a protracted war, the officials and experts say.

The current map of the battlefield points to the scale of the difficulties, Lee said.

It was clear from the way Russian forces moved in the first hours of the war, he said, that their key objectives were to take Ukraine’s second-largest city of Kharkiv, link up the occupied Donbas region with the port city of Odessa along Ukraine’s southern coast, and — most crucially — capture the capital, Kyiv, with a lightning push from the north.

More than three weeks on, Russian troops still haven’t achieved any of these goals.

 

They have failed to fully encircle the northeastern city of Kharkiv, even though it lies just a few miles from the Russian border. Their push to take the port city of Odessa has been halted by fierce Ukrainian resistance at the gates of Mykolaiv. Their effort to link the Russian-annexed territory of Crimea has become ensnared by the grinding and increasingly bloody siege at Mariupol.

 

The Russians have been making gains in the east, in the oblasts of Luhansk and Donetsk, which Russia recognized as independent republics on the eve of the war and which have been partially occupied by Russian-backed forces since 2014. But those advances fall far short of the initial ambitious goal of the invasion.

 

 

The Russians’ hopes of encircling Kyiv, let alone capturing it, are starting to recede, Lee said. Russian forces remain stuck about 15 miles outside the city, and though U.S. officials say Russia is moving rear forces toward the front in anticipation of a renewed push on the capital, the front line hasn’t shifted.

Meanwhile, Russians are dying at a rate that is increasingly unsustainable, Lee said. Although Russia still has vast reserves of manpower, it has already committed the bulk of its combat-ready forces, and they are the ones that are almost certainly bearing the brunt of the casualties, he said.

There are no confirmed casualty figures, and Russia has not updated the figure of 498 dead that it announced a week into the war. But of the Russian army’s 168 battalion tactical groups, 120 are already fighting on the ground, making up about 100,000 soldiers out of the total 190,000 sent into Ukraine. That means Russia has already committed 75 percent of its combat-ready force, U.S. officials say.

 

 

Western intelligence estimates say it is likely that at least 7,000 Russians have been killed and as many as 20,000 injured, and assuming that the combat forces are bearing the brunt of the casualties, that could mean up to a third of the main combat force is now out of action, Lee said.

“That’s a huge loss, and you can’t readily replace that,” he said. Russia can bring in new conscripts or call up more reservists, but that will dilute the capabilities of the overall force, “and that is not in Russia’s interest,” he said.

 

Ukrainian forces have been taking casualties, too, though how many isn’t publicly known because they also have not released any numbers. The longer the war drags on, the more perilous their position will become, too, and the greater the chance Russia will overcome its initial mistakes, said Jack Watling of the London-based Royal United Services Institute.

 

But, he noted, the Ukrainian forces appear to remain highly motivated, while there are clear signs that morale continues to diminish among the Russian troops, he said. Russian forces continue to surrender, abandon their vehicles and show few signs of initiative in the areas they do control, signs “that this is not a force that is well motivated,” he said.

As Russia’s offensive capabilities slow, the risk is high that civilian casualties will mount. Stalemate is likely to become “very violent and bloody,” the ISW assessment said, because Russian troops are more likely to rely on the bombardment of cities to apply pressure.

There are signs that Russia is running out of precision missiles, U.S. officials say, which means Russian forces will also increasingly resort to the use of so-called dumb bombs indiscriminately dropped on civilian areas in an effort to cow them into submission.

Ukraine is unlikely to have the capacity to push Russia out of the territory it has taken so far, officials and analysts say. But the Russians’ current difficulties open up the possibility that the Ukrainians could at least fight them to a standstill, thereby exerting pressure on Russia to accept a negotiated solution.

 

The main question now has shifted from how long it would take the Russians to conquer Ukraine to “can Ukraine fight Russia to a stalemate?” said a Western official who spoke on the condition of anonymity. “They’re doing pretty well at the moment.”

“The next two weeks are going to be pretty decisive,” Watling said. The war won’t be over in two weeks, he predicted, and all the signals from Moscow suggest the Russians are more likely to double down than climb down, making the war more deadly for Ukrainians even as it moves at a slower pace.

“The odds are stacked heavily in the Russians’ favor. This is their war to lose. The reason they are not achieving their objective is largely about their own incompetence, their lack of coordination,” he said.

“What this really comes down to is whether the Russians are going to get their act together.”

 

[Funky]

34 minutes ago, Paul A said:

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3434923-russian-authorities-want-to-send-minors-to-war-in-ukraine-intelligence.html

Sunday, 20 March 2022

Russian authorities want to send minors to war in Ukraine - intelligence

Due to the lack of manpower to replenish the army, the Kremlin leadership is considering involving minors in the war in Ukraine.

According to Ukrinform, the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine said this in a post on Facebook.

A respective order "On organizing the involvement of members of the Yunarmiya military-patriotic public movement in conducting a special operation on Ukrainian territory" was signed by Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu

 

The order says reports should be prepared on the potential human reserve aged 17-18 to be involved in hostilities.

The top military leadership of the Russian Federation must submit proposals for the training of these personnel as soon as possible.

Gennady Zhidko, the head of the main military-political department of the Russian Federation, is in charge of monitoring the implementation of the order.

Yunarmiya is a Russian children's and youth military organization under the Russian Ministry of Defense.

It is engaged in radical propaganda work among young people in Russia.

Children over the age of eight become members of the organization.

 

Are they being retarded??? Minors and WAR??? Does it sound good? Their whole governments has gone senile. Retarded old fucks, all of them should be hanged.

Hope people will rise up and go hang them all.

Even at "protests" where people versus police. It would be so easy to overthrow the police, if all of people would go against police, they would be so fucked up. 10 vs 50 so on.. Numbers have power. Normally it's 1 guy versus 5 police.. Imagine if that deal was other way around 5 people vs 1 policeman. 

They should already give up. People have already shown that they will not give up.. Even if putin will take over Ukraine, the war will continue as people have shown they will not stand for it.

[Emman]

Stop the war propaganda on here. Stop spreading lies.

I COME HERE FOR EUC STUFF NOT WESTERN IMPERIALISTIC PROPAGANDA.

Edited March 20, 2022 by Emman

[mrelwood]

8 minutes ago, Emman said:

Stop the war propaganda on here. Stop spreading lies.

Would you be kind enough to join the discussion, explain which parts have been lies, and show us the truth as you believe it to be?

8 minutes ago, Emman said:

I COME HERE FOR EUC STUFF NOT WESTERN IMPERIALISTIC PROPAGANDA.

You might be best served staying out of this “Off topic discussion” subforum then.

[Funky]

12 minutes ago, Emman said:

Stop the war propaganda on here. Stop spreading lies.

I COME HERE FOR EUC STUFF NOT WESTERN IMPERIALISTIC PROPAGANDA.

Yeah, i would also like to see your view point. xD Why did putler start the "special military operation"? cough WAR cough

He's the one who's killing thousands, and bombing civilian houses. (Well his little green soldiers does it..)

[Paul A]

TASS.

The Russian News Agency TASS, abbreviated TASS, is a major Russian state-owned news agency founded in 1904.

TASS is the largest Russian news agency and one of the largest news agencies worldwide.

TASS is claiming that Russia is invading Ukraine to rid neo-Zazis in Ukraine.

 

The President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, is Jewish. 

He has had many relatives die from fighting the Nazis in war.

In an interview with the Times of Israel the same month, Zelensky said his great-grandfather and his grandfather’s three brothers all fought in the Soviet army that but his grandfather was the only one to return home.

 

Is it really likely that the Jewish President of Ukraine is a neo-Nazi?

Or is it more likely that TASS, on behalf of Putin, are the ones spreading propaganda?

_________________________________________

 

https://tass.com/politics/1412803

28 Feb, 2022

Ukrainian crisis was sparked by West’s disregard for neo-Nazis’ crimes — envoy to UN

UNITED NATIONS, February 28. /TASS/. The crisis in Ukraine was sparked by the West’s disregard for the crimes of neo-Nazis, Russia’s Permanent Representative to the United Nations Vasily Nebenzya said at a meeting of the UN Security Council on Sunday.

"At this point, the focus should be on improving the situation that led to the crisis that we are going through. It did not begin with Russia’s special military operation in Ukraine, it was sparked much earlier as for eight years, the West has been turning a blind eye to the crimes of Ukrainian neo-Nazis in Donbass," he pointed out.

 

 

[Paul A]

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3435387-russia-continues-to-deploy-troops-equipment-to-ukraines-borders.html

Monday, 21 March

Russia continues to deploy troops, equipment to Ukraine's borders

Analysts with the Conflict Intelligence Team (CIT) came to the conclusion that Russia continues to transfer troops and engineering equipment toward the borders with Ukraine.

This was reported on CIT’s Telegram channel, according to Ukrinform.

In the video taken on March 17 in Rostov-on-Don, a train carrying main battle tanks is seen, which, according to the Russian Railways database, is heading from Russia’s remote Primorsky Krai.

Another video, shot north of the city on March 18 shows a train carrying military trucks and armored personnel carriers purportedly coming from the Caucasus or the Krasnodar Territory.

 

In addition to military equipment, military engineering vehicles are being shipped.

For example, in Irkutsk region, a lot of REM-KL and MTP-A2 military tow trucks have been spotted, which may be needed to tow abandoned or destroyed military hardware.

On the outskirts of St. Petersburg on March 18, a train was seen carrying pontoon building equipment.

 

The CIT noted that the intensity of deployment is now lower than a month before the war.

According to analysts, Russia may have at its disposal up to 40 battalion tactical groups yet to be used, which could amount to a total of over 20,000 servicemen.

"Of course, there are legitimate questions arising as regards their level of training and combat capabilities," the CIT said.