Aztek Posted July 22 Share Posted July 22 (edited) 2 hours ago, Mono said: The state of battery research: The batteries are a subject of very intensive research and investment due to the big things at stake, as stated above. Therefore the reasonable expectations would be to have results very soon. The timeline fits too - see this topic, created 6 years ago. At this moment we expected them within 5-6 years timeframe. Edited July 22 by Aztek Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alcatraz Posted July 22 Share Posted July 22 What's the current best pricing? Using that, what would 3000Wh cost? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mono Posted July 23 Share Posted July 23 (edited) 23 hours ago, Aztek said: The batteries are a subject of very intensive research and investment due to the big things at stake, as stated above. Therefore the reasonable expectations would be to have results very soon. People and companies happen to burn tons of money on such kind of investments, more often than not without any return on it. The "things at stake" change people's attitudes or expectations, but they don't change the physics. 23 hours ago, Aztek said: The timeline fits too - see this topic, created 6 years ago. At this moment we expected them within 5-6 years timeframe. 5-6 years is what you meant by "have results very soon"? The creation time of this thread should give zero confidence about the arrival time of a new technology. The reasonable expectation is to always multiply by a factor of two -> 10-12 years, but it's not very reasonable to think one could make reliable predictions over this timeframe anyways, regardless of expertise. Edited July 23 by Mono Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aztek Posted July 23 Share Posted July 23 10 hours ago, Mono said: People and companies happen to burn tons of money on such kind of investments, more often than not without any return on it. The "things at stake" change people's attitudes or expectations, but they don't change the physics. Might be. Let's hope you're wrong. Otherwise we're in trouble. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mono Posted July 23 Share Posted July 23 34 minutes ago, Aztek said: Otherwise we're in trouble. How so? I don't quite see how the lack of a revolutionary new battery technology in the next 20 years will cause any particular trouble in my life. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacGyverCanada Posted July 23 Share Posted July 23 2 hours ago, Mono said: How so? I don't quite see how the lack of a revolutionary new battery technology in the next 20 years will cause any particular trouble in my life. Can't save the planet without electrifying all transportation. Can't electrify all transportation without a revolutionary new battery tech. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alcatraz Posted July 24 Share Posted July 24 (edited) I don't really care about Solid state as much as I care about density. As long as they can deliver greater density we can evolve further. Electric flying machines etc. Edited July 24 by alcatraz Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aztek Posted July 24 Share Posted July 24 2 hours ago, alcatraz said: I don't really care about Solid state as much as I care about density. As long as they can deliver greater density we can evolve further. Electric flying machines etc. Density yes, but safety, price and life cycles are important too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aztek Posted July 24 Share Posted July 24 7 hours ago, Mono said: How so? I don't quite see how the lack of a revolutionary new battery technology in the next 20 years will cause any particular trouble in my life. You don't see the potential of this technology to solve the energy storage problem or are just a climate change denier? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mono Posted July 24 Share Posted July 24 (edited) 1 hour ago, Aztek said: You don't see the potential of this technology to solve the energy storage problem Neither am I certain that (large scale) energy storage is a primary problem that is necessary to be solved to address climate change most effectively, nor does it seem to be a given (or even likely) that battery technology will be the best solution to energy storage on a large scale. 1 hour ago, Aztek said: or are just a climate change denier? Certainly not. 6 hours ago, macgyvercanada said: Can't save the planet without electrifying all transportation. There are many reasons to believe that this may not be true. For a start, there are other zero CO2 emission technologies. Then, transportation is not our main emission problem that we need to solve. Spending resources in trying to solve it right now may even be counterproductive considering the bigger picture. 6 hours ago, macgyvercanada said: Can't electrify all transportation without a revolutionary new battery tech. I don't know that this is true either Edited July 24 by Mono Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
onewheelkoregro Posted July 24 Share Posted July 24 16 hours ago, macgyvercanada said: Can't save the planet without electrifying all transportation. Can't electrify all transportation without a revolutionary new battery tech. The tech won't get advanced at all. Big oil and coal will kill every advancement. Watch this documentary called "Who killed the electric car". A man developed a tech that would allow the car you have now on water. Any water, like salt water, refuse water, filtered or unfiltered water. He died agreeing to meet an exec from one of the big automakers at an applebee's. Ordered a drink took a sip and the last thing he said was, "They poisoned me", then died. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RagingGrandpa Posted July 24 Share Posted July 24 Please let's leave the geopolitical stuff rest there. Battery news is welcome, hope to hear more soon! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
onewheelkoregro Posted July 24 Share Posted July 24 30 minutes ago, RagingGrandpa said: Please let's leave the geopolitical stuff rest there. Battery news is welcome, hope to hear more soon! I don't know how that could've been construed as "geo political" as we both live in the US and this happened in the US, but I will refrain from mentioning it again. Yeah battery technology could be greatly improved but what can we do? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacGyverCanada Posted July 24 Share Posted July 24 15 minutes ago, onewheelkoregro said: I don't know how that could've been construed as "geo political" as we both live in the US and this happened in the US, but I will refrain from mentioning it again. Yeah battery technology could be greatly improved but what can we do? Lots of work going on in multiple new battery techs, though only a few might apply to EUCs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alcatraz Posted July 25 Share Posted July 25 Here's a thought. Maybe solid state will never replace regular lithium. Simply because high current cells (that now are everywhere) don't heat up as much and thus aren't likely to create a catastrophical chain reaction. If they continue to run cooler and cooler, density is all that solid state will have against regular lithium, unless they catch up on that front as well. Which we've seen on the market. 6000Ah 21700 cells are incoming which is a solid 20% improvement. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rawnei Posted July 25 Share Posted July 25 No doubt there's a lot of cool things happening within research but it is a long way from research to stable and safe production-like prototype to mass production, just building the factories for mass production once they have a solid concept takes years, car industry is the main driver for this type of research so they have first dibs, that means that relevant consumer grade solid state batteries is still years away unfortunately (yes I know about a few existing products like that big power bank on Amazon but it's not relevant for us). Who knows maybe there will be some awesome discoveries and eureka moments leading to some truly astonishing battery tech but it won't mean finished product any time soon even so. Best for now is further iterations of lithium batteries, just making them safer and perform better is great progress for our usecase. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacGyverCanada Posted July 25 Share Posted July 25 Quote it is a long way from research to stable and safe production-like prototype to mass production I think the point here is that solid state packs are entering mass-production. Heck, Toyota is still hoping to get them into their 2027-model EVs per their January 2024 roadmap. But yeah def still lots of ramp-up needed to get anywhere close to current levels of lithium battery production, likely still years away. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mhpr262 Posted July 30 Share Posted July 30 On 7/24/2024 at 6:32 AM, Aztek said: the potential of this technology to solve the energy storage problem The energy storage problem will not be solved by expensive solid state batteries, but by the very cheap to produce and long lived sodium-ion batteries that are taking off right now. Energy density doesnt usually matter for stationary batteries, cost and longevity does. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aztek Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 (edited) 9 hours ago, mhpr262 said: The energy storage problem will not be solved by expensive solid state batteries, but by the very cheap to produce and long lived sodium-ion batteries that are taking off right now. Energy density doesnt usually matter for stationary batteries, cost and longevity does. Yes, for storage, the energy density is not the most important feature. Whatever does it will be good, if it does it soon. The solid state batteries are expected eventually to be 60% cheaper by the current lithium ion. On the other hand, in relation to saving the world from climate disaster, money means exactly nothing. Edited July 31 by Aztek Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alcatraz Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 People said ssd were going to be cheaper than mechanical hard drives. Even today they aren't if you look at price/storage. It's risky to read investment information. Of course they'll say that. Mechanical drives looked like they weren't going to be able to compete a long time ago. They got real cheap after the pressure came. The same thing will happen with our old liquid electrolyte cells. A 50S cell might be 3-4usd today but could be 1usd later, and we'd still use them. They won't give up without a fight. Either way we all win. Solid state would be available at around today's prices and traditional cells would cost near to nothing. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on one Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 1 hour ago, alcatraz said: People said ssd were going to be cheaper than mechanical hard drives. Even today they aren't if you look at price/storage. The upcoming entrepreneurs of silicon valley all seem to agree that the price of compute and the price of energy is going down to near zero in the not too distant future. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacGyverCanada Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 1 hour ago, on one said: The upcoming entrepreneurs of silicon valley all seem to agree that the price of compute and the price of energy is going down to near zero in the not too distant future. Yes, because of huge centralization of production in both areas. But mobile energy storage will still have some costs 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aztek Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 1 hour ago, on one said: energy is going down to near zero That's only possible with fusion reactors. And it is not good, as all energy eventually finishes as heat. Heat external to the Earth - Sun system in this case. We're gonna boil. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on one Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 I sure hope not. Earth receive enough sunlight already to power everything, not to mention inside of our planet is even more energy. Modern humans are failing to harness energy sources efficiently. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
onewheelkoregro Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 4 hours ago, Aztek said: That's only possible with fusion reactors. And it is not good, as all energy eventually finishes as heat. Heat external to the Earth - Sun system in this case. We're gonna boil. As if we are not doing that already with the burning of fossil fuels... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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