KiwiMark Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 I'm excited about these new batteries, or at least I will be WHEN they are commercially available on something that I can buy. Until you can actually buy an EUC with these batteries at a reasonable price, they are just a mildly interesting idea. It is like when I see a trailer for a new movie that will be released Q3 of next year, I put my excitement on hold for now. Who cares about how good a movie might be until it is released and you can actually watch it? I can say that in 2050 there will be some really fantastic batteries in EUCs, but should we be excited about it today? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Funky Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 5 hours ago, KiwiMark said: I'm excited about these new batteries, or at least I will be WHEN they are commercially available on something that I can buy. Until you can actually buy an EUC with these batteries at a reasonable price, they are just a mildly interesting idea. It is like when I see a trailer for a new movie that will be released Q3 of next year, I put my excitement on hold for now. Who cares about how good a movie might be until it is released and you can actually watch it? I can say that in 2050 there will be some really fantastic batteries in EUCs, but should we be excited about it today? By 2050 most of today's riders will be 6 feet under. Not getting to enjoy the future wonders. Heck even i will be dead. That's why faster - the better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mono Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 6 hours ago, KiwiMark said: I'm excited about these new batteries, or at least I will be WHEN they are commercially available on something that I can buy. Until you can actually buy an EUC with these batteries at a reasonable price, they are just a mildly interesting idea. So true! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aztek Posted November 19, 2022 Share Posted November 19, 2022 On 11/13/2022 at 1:02 PM, Funky said: By 2050 most of today's riders will be 6 feet under. Not getting to enjoy the future wonders. Heck even i will be dead. That's why faster - the better. Hm... I intend to be alive and even riding in my seventies why die so early? Joke apart, but solid state batteries are most probably not more than 5 years away from being mainstream. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mono Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 4 hours ago, Aztek said: Joke apart, but solid state batteries are most probably not more than 5 years away from being mainstream. I would bet a pretty large amount of money against that 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alcatraz Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 There's a huge lithium industry that is going to want to squeeze out the life that's left out of their investments and dump prices if they can. You'll see 5000mAh cells for 50 cents before you'll see solid state under 10 dollars per cell etc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KiwiMark Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 1 hour ago, alcatraz said: There's a huge lithium industry that is going to want to squeeze out the life that's left out of their investments and dump prices if they can. You'll see 5000mAh cells for 50 cents before you'll see solid state under 10 dollars per cell etc. Wow! That is super optimistic about the solid state batteries. You not only think they will soon be available, but that they will completely disrupt lithium. I personally doubt that the lithium industry is concerned about getting life out of their investments and I doubt that they believe they will need to dump prices at any time in the next decade. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alcatraz Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 (edited) Optimistic? What I mean is it's going to be cheaper to do it the old fashioned way. The wheel manufacturers are probably going to install super advanced BMSs, possibly eliminating 99% of fires, before going solid state. Because it's cheaper. The density is what I think could shift the balance. What density can a cheap solid-state cell achieve? Can it compete? Of course I'm excited but I'm not going to hold my breath. The competition will help accelerate development of old lithium and I'm almost equally excited about that. Edited November 21, 2022 by alcatraz Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aztek Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 (edited) 5 hours ago, alcatraz said: Optimistic? What I mean is it's going to be cheaper to do it the old fashioned way. The wheel manufacturers are probably going to install super advanced BMSs, possibly eliminating 99% of fires, before going solid state. Because it's cheaper. The density is what I think could shift the balance. What density can a cheap solid-state cell achieve? Can it compete? Of course I'm excited but I'm not going to hold my breath. The competition will help accelerate development of old lithium and I'm almost equally excited about that. Solid state batteries are about 60% cheaper than lithium based. Also, depending of the construction, may not contain rare elements. Also they degrade for thousands of cycles vs hundreds of cycles for the lithium ion. Also can be charged in a matter of 10-15 minutes and have bigger energy density All big automotive manufacturers are investing heavily in the technology. So, no, if the above is correct, you are most probably not right Edited November 21, 2022 by Aztek 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Funky Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 (edited) 2x lighter battery for same amount of range, that can be charged in 10-15min from 0 to 100%. And have no chance catching on fire. I would gladly pay 500-1000$ extra. Who knows.. Maybe solid-state batteries will be built so well - that you won't need to exchange them whole wheel life. (Hard to get damaged and so on..) Edited November 21, 2022 by Funky 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alcatraz Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 (edited) Hey, I'm rooting for the new tech too. More competition is good. But how can you be sure you're not just reading the "investors pamphlet"? If it were cheaper today then the market would be flooded already wouldn't it? That means it's not a real price but a prediction for the future. If it's a miracle product at 60% of the price, the demand would cause prices to skyrocket. You'd have stock vanish and then sold at market prices. Wheel manufacturers can't work with conditions like that. Also, I think most (if not all) of the cells used in our wheels are Made in China. Importing cells into China is very expensive. Like +40%. This is probably the reason why we don't have 4680 cells in wheels already. Those have 300Wh/kg density I hear, which is higher than what we currently enjoy at around 250Wh/kg. LG and Panasonic have plants in China for those high density 18650/21700 cells. So if solid state is manufactured outside China, it would probably have to be sold seperately to riders. Chinese factories usually do like to compete with price, so when they jump on the solid state band wagon, it's going to be affordable and available to wheel manufacturers. Will quality be up to par? Edited November 22, 2022 by alcatraz Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aztek Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 (edited) 4 hours ago, alcatraz said: If it were cheaper today then the market would be flooded already wouldn't it? That means it's not a real price but a prediction for the future. Yep, that's for sure. Predictions of course. We'll have to see all this But they are promising The most important feature is, however, the ecological impact. The electric vehicles are going mainstream and the way the electricity is produced and stored are ever more important. Edited November 22, 2022 by Aztek 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Funky Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 5 hours ago, alcatraz said: Will quality be up to par? Hey at least wheels won't burn. Some cutouts are okey. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aztek Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 27 minutes ago, Funky said: Hey at least wheels won't burn. Some cutouts are okey. Yes... If we were so quality oriented, we should have not touched all our EUCs with a long stick. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Funky Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 50 minutes ago, Aztek said: Yes... If we were so quality oriented, we should have not touched all our EUCs with a long stick. Good thing i don't touch any of the "newer" ones. Those are the worst built.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
novazeus Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 maybe ev's just aren't safe? https://www.tesla-fire.com/ 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rawnei Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 7 hours ago, novazeus said: maybe ev's just aren't safe? https://www.tesla-fire.com/ Lithium batteries is a risk that we're all (society) willing to take until we have safer battery technology. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aztek Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 https://insideevs.com/news/625111/bmw-lithium-ion-peak-solid-state/ 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alcatraz Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 I wonder if super high energy density can ever be safe? Isn't it a bit like a hand grenade with the pin half removed... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tawpie Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 26 minutes ago, alcatraz said: I wonder if super high energy density can ever be safe? We've learned how to (relatively) safely handle dino juice, and I expect that eventually we'll get there with high energy batteries. So far lead acid, carbon zinc, alkaline, nickel cadmium and nickel metal hydride have reached the point of generally-considered-safe... we'll get there with lithium chemistries too! Someday we'll have shipstones. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=8516481 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paul A Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Perhaps one day quantum mechanics / entanglement can be used to transmit energy, as well as information. 'The force' in sci-fi Star Wars might have been inspired by this. https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/china-shatters-ldquo-spooky-action-at-a-distance-rdquo-record-preps-for-quantum-internet/ 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aztek Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 6 hours ago, alcatraz said: I wonder if super high energy density can ever be safe? Isn't it a bit like a hand grenade with the pin half removed... The safety is related to the technology used - liquid vs solid vs flammable. So no, the density is not directly related to the risk of explosion or combustion. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tawpie Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 I read a little thing the other day that said 500 dino juice powered vehicles catch on fire each day in the US... it's not news for tech that is 'essential' to 'the masses'. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alcatraz Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 On 12/9/2022 at 5:47 PM, Aztek said: The safety is related to the technology used - liquid vs solid vs flammable. So no, the density is not directly related to the risk of explosion or combustion. Ok thanks. I wonder what would happen when we shortcircuit a CHINESE made solid state 500Wh/kg cell? Because that's what we're going to have in our wheels if the manufacturers get to choose. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aztek Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 (edited) 7 hours ago, alcatraz said: Ok thanks. I wonder what would happen when we shortcircuit a CHINESE made solid state 500Wh/kg cell? Because that's what we're going to have in our wheels if the manufacturers get to choose. Get hot, stop working, get cold? The short-circuit always means energy radiated as heat. Something can catch fire if flammable. But if the battery components are not highly flammable you don't get the fireworks effect of the current. Who knows. Depends entirely on the construction and the chemistry chosen for it. We'll see. Edited December 13, 2022 by Aztek Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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