Will the EUC market be affected by Russian military conflicts?

[supercurio]

First, I'd like to acknowledge that worrying about wheels is an absolute first world problem in times where people lose life and worry about their future.

However, EUCs are also entirely neutral vehicles, tools helping people move, work or relax, all things which should continue with the least amount of disruption as possible especially in times of war with the added stress, economic pressure and uncertainty.

I'm starting this topic in order to track what this conflict escalation has as side-effect in the EUC industry in general and on you guys in particular, orders or even riding conditions.
I would like it to remain the least conflictual possible so we can openly the impact on EUCs without getting carried away into discussing the war itself.

 

I'll start:

I have a V12 waiting and S20 pre-order at EUCShop, situated in Lithuania: headquarter Vilnius.
Lithuania doesn't have a direct border with Russia or Ukraine, however it has with Belarus which seemed to be a country where NATO reinforcement were concentrated.
I have high trust for its owner, however I wonder how the conflict would impact shipments from China. On top of that, Lithuania is also in an escalating diplomatic rhetoric with China for the last few months, which seemed to have no effect so far.

I'll ask the shop owner if the shipments (rail) were usually going via Russia or Ukraine.
Looking at a map, it seems very difficult to ship stuff by rail avoiding both Russia and Ukraine.

Edited February 24, 2022 by RagingGrandpa
(clarified title)

[supercurio]

First answers from EUCShop: S20 delivery to Lithuania is planned by sea.

A friend's S20 order from Loomo:
"Now we did not heard the war will inpact the delivery"

[yoos]

For what it's worth, ecodrift stopped to take preorders altogether. Russia used to be an important market to the EUC industry. Luckily the growing popularity in the USA and Europe will keep the EUC industry alive even if this war brings ruin to everyone involved (which wars usually do).

Edited February 24, 2022 by yoos

[level9]

Other than logistical issues (shipping delays, etc.) for the affected areas in question, the main concern would be inflation. Prices could go up notably. And if the US decides to try and cut off Russia from the global financial system, prices could really get out of hand fast as energy, lithium and related commodities soar... I've been watching the futures markets and it's rather very unhappy about what's going on...

 

 

[supercurio]

@mike_bike_kite kindly requesting as described in the original post to stay on topic of the impact on EUC market
(but feel free to create another topic to discuss that of course, I totally understand the desire to ask the perspective from someone we learned to trust from previous interactions)

Edited February 24, 2022 by supercurio

[mike_bike_kite]

31 minutes ago, supercurio said:

@mike_bike_kite kindly requesting as described in the original post to stay on topic of the impact on EUC market

No problem, will do.

[Rawnei]

This also assumes that the war will stay in Ukraine, it could potentially escalate to more countries in worst case scenario (hopefully not) and then the impact will be much greater.

The train deliveries from China which delivers a bulk of wheels sold via AliExpress at least goes through Russia towards Poland, not sure if it passes Ukraine? I'm sure I've seen a map of the route somewhere. This delivery pipeline could be potentially affected but at the same time it's China which is a valued ally to Russia so might be in both countries interest to keep that as operational as possible, but then the destination country of Poland might eventually be part of sanctions, so one can only speculate at this point.

[supercurio]

Do you remember which was the route your V11 took to be shipped from China to Sweden @Rawnei?

[Rawnei]

5 minutes ago, supercurio said:

Do you remember which was the route your V11 took to be shipped from China to Sweden @Rawnei?

Yeah train route via Russia to Poland.

[UniVehje]

Contemplating on how long it takes for our Chinese toys to arrive seems a bit off today. Probably a few days more if the dictator decides to keep it in Ukraine only. I’m sure they’ll find another route.

Our Ukrainian fellow riders and forum members have so much more to worry. They’re probably not getting much riding time this summer, if they’re still alive. 
 

Another question is should we even keep buying from China if they join Russia. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-23/china-opposes-russia-sanctions-calls-u-s-actions-immoral
 

And our industrial Russian friends with innovative pads and pedals have lost their foreign market. 

[supercurio]

37 minutes ago, UniVehje said:

Contemplating on how long it takes for our Chinese toys to arrive seems a bit off today. Probably a few days more if the dictator decides to keep it in Ukraine only. I’m sure they’ll find another route.

Agree, it seems insignificant when looking at what is actually happening.
For some these are toys, for some they are much more.

A few locked in significant savings, maybe money they don't even have in pre-orders, or orders which may be delayed, to unknown extent.
That's why I hope the discussion here, and sharing the information we have can help us make wise decisions.

37 minutes ago, UniVehje said:

Our Ukrainian fellow riders and forum members have so much more to worry. They’re probably not getting much riding time this summer, if they’re still alive. 

Another question is should we even keep buying from China if they join Russia. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-23/china-opposes-russia-sanctions-calls-u-s-actions-immoral
 

And our industrial Russian friends with innovative pads and pedals have lost their foreign market. 

Yes that's a big looming unknown if it escalates to world war with China becoming a Russian ally, then with sanctions there will be unprecedented disruptions to supply chain and no more wheels (and a lot of other goods) for a while.

After watching the US president's address highlighting just now what would happen in case of attempts to spread the invasion beyond Ukraine into NATO countries, maybe things will settle for some time with an occupied Ukraine and a semblance of stability onwards.

Both Ukrainian and Russian will suffer greatly during that time, for no good reason.

Edited February 24, 2022 by supercurio

[RagingGrandpa]

4 hours ago, supercurio said:

kindly requesting as described in the original post to stay on topic of the impact on EUC market

To that end: broader discussion of the conflict in Ukraine can continue in the topic below: 
https://forum.electricunicycle.org/topic/26930-any-ukrainian-riders/