2021 Summer Battery Shortages

[gon2fast]

I noticed a comment from GoGeorgGo where he shared a release concerning 18650 battery shortages. I started sniffing around and got confirmation that there is a shortage of 18650s as well as 21700s. 

Will this push back releases? - I would imagine so

Will this cause an increase in the cost of EUCs? - Most definitely and like the embargo mess a few years back, the prices will not drop post event (IMHO).

Will this force a need for new/better battery technology? - Hope so, but probably not

I was expecting my EXn in a few weeks, but that is looking to get extended. 

[UniBlab]

An interesting news video on future of Lithium Batteries -

 

Lithium Battery Shortage

[AtlasP]

More EUC-manufacturer-specific news on the impact of the battery crisis on production:

Quote

IMPORTANT NEWS EUC Manufactures Suspend production due Lithium batteries crisis.

2021 huge 18650 batts crisis in China. 

From 2021.05.17 Main EUC manufactures stop production of Electric unicycles. 

LeaperKim Veteran Sherman stop take new orders.  Date for start production not announced. 

KingSong Stop taking New orders for 18650 batts wheels. 

Inmotion take a 3-4 weeks brake. 

Begode take 3-4 weeks brake. 

Batteries price rise, delivery price rise right now. EUC prices will rise also in the next 1-2 months. 

...seams end of the summer all Shops will be out of products. 

Source: https://eucsale.com/buying-guide/important-news-euc-manufactures-suspend-production-due-lithium-batteries-crisis.html

Edited May 27, 2021 by AtlasP

[.....]

THIS kind of news is more worrisome than approaching legal issues. Defnitely take care of the wheels you got! Isnt euc becoming more popular at the same time as this battery problem?

Edited May 27, 2021 by ShanesPlanet

[gon2fast]

I am seeing price increase threats from multiple resellers, not good. eWheels has stated that they have been working with their battery distributor to build up stock for the Summer months. Not sure if that applies to any wheels/brands other than the upper end Begodes (EXn,EX & M-Pro).

[.....]

8 minutes ago, gon2fast said:

I am seeing price increase threats from multiple resellers, not good. eWheels has stated that they have been working with their battery distributor to build up stock for the Summer months. Not sure if that applies to any wheels/brands other than the upper end Begodes (EXn,EX & M-Pro).

He who can monopolize the specific batteries required, will DOMINATE the market. Such a small market tho and if it shrinks, could it disappear altogether? What would be the future of the euc is even just the chinese production was halted and never resumed... Its almost a monopoly already, and that makes it even more volatile.

[atdlzpae]

It's not only batteries, it's everything. That includes steel, lumber, oil, food... Basically everything is going through the roof.
2020 was handled very poorly and inflation is finally catching up.

But hey, on paper the economy is doing great - S&P 500 rose 13% since 01.01.2021. The rich are getting richer faster than ever before.

I expect the prices to continue rising quickly for a year or two before finally stabilizing, the crisis hasn't yet ran it's course.

Edited May 27, 2021 by atdlzpae

[gon2fast]

EUCO fire, MTEN3s exploding then this... dang. Worse part is that I am a spoiled enthusiast complaining about when I will receive my next toy. I can only imagine how this situation will impact the smaller resellers when they can no longer get stock in. 

[shellac]

22 minutes ago, atdlzpae said:

It's not only batteries, it's everything. That includes steel, lumber, oil, food... Basically everything is going through the roof.
2020 was handled very poorly and inflation is finally catching up.

But hey, on paper the economy is doing great - S&P 500 rose 13% since 01.01.2021. The rich are getting richer faster than ever before.

I expect the prices to continue rising quickly for a year or two before finally stabilizing, the crisis hasn't yet ran it's course.

It’s pretty normal for prices to rise at this time, given what’s been going on. Inflation was unusually low during covid and manufacturing was scaled back. Now that economies are opening up again, it’s expected to have supply side shortages and price increases. It also makes up for the lack of inflation last year. 

I agree it’ll take a year or so to normalize. Calling it a crisis is a bit of a reach. 

The rich will always be getting richer, especially during a catastrophe like covid. Naomi Klein aptly calls it “disaster capitalism”. The only solution to that is fundamental change to how we do things. Change who the economy ultimately serves and benefits. 

Edited May 27, 2021 by shellac

[GoGeorgeGo]

1 hour ago, shellac said:

It’s pretty normal for prices to rise at this time, given what’s been going on. Inflation was unusually low during covid and manufacturing was scaled back. Now that economies are opening up again, it’s expected to have supply side shortages and price increases. It also makes up for the lack of inflation last year. 

I agree it’ll take a year or so to normalize. Calling it a crisis is a bit of a reach. 

The rich will always be getting richer, especially during a catastrophe like covid. Naomi Klein aptly calls it “disaster capitalism”. The only solution to that is fundamental change to how we do things. Change who the economy ultimately serves and benefits. 

So your saying .... all in on bitcoin? Doge moon when? 🤣

All joking aside though we are going to experience a short term battery crunch for sure. Most large scale production will be concentrated on setting up new 4860 cell production facilities. Tesla has vowed to buy every single one that is produced and made their IP available to all manufacturers provided tesla is given first right of refusal on all batteries produced. While this is fantastic for the future of battery tech, this is going to put a major squeeze on the raw materials used in the 18650 and 21700 cells in the short run. And with new electric car startups and even legacy companys growing their production every day, the problem will only get worse in the short run. 

If a supplier needs to choose between an euc/scooter company, and a major car company, i can only assume they would seek to fullfill the legacy car manufacturers orders first. 

[AtlasP]

4 hours ago, ShanesPlanet said:

He who can monopolize the specific batteries required, will DOMINATE the market. Such a small market tho and if it shrinks, could it disappear altogether? What would be the future of the euc is even just the chinese production was halted and never resumed... Its almost a monopoly already, and that makes it even more volatile.

This is unfounded alarmism. Yes it'll suck for the next so-many-months/maybe up to a year, but this is not a long-term problem. (As we speak the market is incentivizing increased production by existing parties as well as for new players to enter the market--the market provides this incentive automatically to re-achieve equilibrium--it just doesn't happen overnight.) People act like these are new, perplexing, scary phenomena instead of age-old and well-understood temporary market occurances.

Edited May 27, 2021 by AtlasP

[conecones]

This is interesting news but I predict it won’t be a long duration effect, unlike for example the extreme shortage of bicycles in the last year with shops taking preorders stretched into next summer. Bike stores have even shutdown due to lack of inventory.
2020 was a huge year for PEV’s but I think as COVID winds down, the increase in ridership will slow down as people have many other activities to get interested in. And let’s be honest you have to be a little nuts to get into EUC anyway and it’s not for the average person who just wants to go from A-B (average person being someone who’s not going to put full motocross gear to just get somewhere).
Over the past year we have seen a lot of casual riders getting into it but the enthusiast group is going to remain small and given that most 100V wheels moving to the 21700 platform, it isn’t that worrying. The current inventory should keep up with demand and an extra $100-200 isn’t really going to affect someone who’s willing to drop a cool $2000 based on some YouTube vids  On top of that 18650 is one of the most common sizes used in laptops, flashlights, vape pens...etc that shortage recoveries should be fast given its demand/production is always so high and EUC’s being an insignificant part of the global market for these batteries. 

[Camenbert]

shortage seems to be a new way to make money.

I am not sure once everything is somehow normal again, we will see good price and availability.
Why would you if you have discover your dominant position and that people are willing to pay (more)?

Re-establish competition take time.

[AtlasP]

14 hours ago, Camenbert said:

shortage seems to be a new way to make money.

I am not sure once everything is somehow normal again, we will see good price and availability.
Why would you if you have discover your dominant position and that people are willing to pay (more)?

Re-establish competition take time.

More alarmism that seems to ignore basic economics. You don't think that EUCO or AlienRides or any of the other EUC vendors that pop up overnight all the time won't jump at the chance to be able to undersell Ewheels by a couple hundred bucks if they had the chance in order to steal some of their massive customer base? The prices of all these different places being so close to one another (check out my chart to see the direct comparison laid bare) isn't collusion or coincidence, it's the market forces that prevent them from charging more than the next guy or else being forced out by their uncompetitive prices.

Market shortages are nothing new. Price fluctuations due to market shortages and their subsequent normalizations are nothing new. Indeed it is the degree of severity of the shortage and in particular the corresponding price fluctuation that directly-proportionately serves towards incentivizing/rewarding those who take steps to resolve it and re-achieve equilibrium. It is a self-correcting mechanism.

Edited May 27, 2021 by AtlasP

[Toad]

The "invisible hand" of the market evidently has only tepid long-term confidence in Li-Ion batteries, not enough to sink capital in super-ample manufacturing capacity.  Consequently, China's more controlled economy reaps rewards for supplying batteries.  But centrally-planned economies do not have an unblemished history.  There could be awkwardness in China if someone comes up with the next big tech right after they have bet the farm on hundreds of Li-Ion battery factories.

On the bright side, electric unicycles do not require a whole lot of batteries.  The laws of supply and demand might make them more expensive, but not nearly as much more as automobiles.