Elon Musk's New Batteries

[dbfrese]

Elon Musk announced:

"the new 2170 battery cell to be manufactured at the Gigafactory in Nevada" which will be both the cheapest and most energy dense battery on the market. Perhaps someone walk try these out in their EUC when they come to market. No specs available yet, of course.

https://goo.gl/LPzS2M

[Hunka Hunka Burning Love]

Sweet!  I could see this coming... when you build a jumbo factory like that you are bound to release some fantastic new products!  I just hope they don't have some catastrophic fire or accident there...

 

[lizardmech]

They're supposed to be 5750mah 16 would give you 380wh.

[zlymex]

Those "cheapest" and "most energy dense" are very difficult to come together, apart from the obvious high discharge rate. The 385kW model S requires about 55 Watts of power for each of those 7000+ cells, larger than required by any EUC.

[Greg Spalding]

Thank goodness for TESLA LEFTOVERS 

[Boxer Rebellion]

58 minutes ago, Greg Spalding said:

Thank goodness for TESLA LEFTOVERS 

It would be pretty cool, and perhaps a marketing genius idea to include an Electric Unicycle with every Tesla vehicle purchase! at least as an option. Purpose would be to display the versatility, power, capacity, and durability of Tesla's batteries uses, if it can be incorporated in the an EUC, and more importantly and this is selfish...to promote a personal mobility device, but the NineBot Mini may be a better option since the learning curve is much lower.

[Greg Spalding]

Just now, Boxer Rebellion said:

It would be pretty cool, and perhaps a marketing genius idea to include an Electric Unicycle with every Tesla vehicle purchase! at least as an option. Purpose would be to display the versatility, power, capacity, and durability of Tesla's batteries uses, if it can be incorporated in the an EUC, and more importantly and this is selfish...to promote a personal mobility device, but the NineBot Mini may be a better option since the learning curve is much lower.

i love your way of thinking.... increase the COOL FACTOR of The Tesla even more

[Boxer Rebellion]

6 minutes ago, Greg Spalding said:

i love your way of thinking.... increase the COOL FACTOR of The Tesla even more

I wished I have more time and more disposable income to play with the "good ferry ideas"...lol, would definitely approach Elon Musk on this idea

[Greg Spalding]

29 minutes ago, Boxer Rebellion said:

I wished I have more time and more disposable income to play with the "good ferry ideas"...lol, would definitely approach Elon Musk on this idea

i agree... that would BE SO AWESOME

imagine the skyrocketing sales of EUCs are that!

[Jason McNeil]

11 hours ago, lizardmech said:

They're supposed to be 5750mah 16 would give you 380wh.

If this is true, that will be quite a coup! 

• Best current 18650 cells = 3.5Ah
• Increase weight from 18650 (50g) to 21700 (75g) = 25g
• Proportional increase in capacity from weight increase of the new format = 1.75Ah = 21700 must be >5.25Ah—Edit: I bu**ocksed up the calculation, to match the same Wh/kg, the new 21700 cells will need to be 5.25A!
• Samsung's 21700 energy capacity roadmap in 2017 is a = 4.750Ah cell, while LG is targeting 4.8Ah, which is surprisingly less energy dense than the current 18650 format! 
• Panasonic/Tesla's lead over the other two heavy-weights, 21.05%! 

This article has some interesting insights into the new format.

https://electrek.co/2016/07/28/tesla-gigafactory-tour-roundup-and-tidbits-this-is-the-coolest-factory-ever/

Elon and JB elaborated with the following:

• They actually changed the size to 21mm diameter and a 70mm height. They also got rid of the trailing ‘0’ so the name of the battery that will be going into the Model 3 is the ’21-70′
• JB Straubel says Tesla developed this battery this size by starting without preconceived notions. They then optimized for efficiency, size and output. The 18650 standard was called an accident of history though it had served Tesla and others well.  Tesla says it predicts that this new 21-70 battery size will become a new standard.

• The half centimeter height increase for the car packs would be offset with more efficient battery packaging which will make the packs actually the same thickness or less than current packs and obviously with a higher energy density.

• Musk noted that once the 21-70s were in mass production, they could find their way into existing Tesla car battery packs for the Model S and X as well as the Powerwall

 

 

[US69]

6 hours ago, lizardmech said:

They're supposed to be 5750mah 16 would give you 380wh.

That seams a Little high for me.

Even 26650 cant give such an high amount of mah...i would suspect it to be around 4.500 to 4800mah, but not higher than 5000mah

 

[lizardmech]

3 minutes ago, KingSong69 said:

That seams a Little high for me.

Even 26650 cant give such an high amount of mah

 

Seems about right by volume, 18650 hits 3500mah, 2170 would have about 40% more volume,   3500 x 1.4 = 4900, they would need to improve chemistry by 18% to reach that.

[Keith]

1 hour ago, Greg Spalding said:

i agree... that would BE SO AWESOME

imagine the skyrocketing sales of EUCs are that!

..... Except, current projected volume sales of the Tesla 3 (I've just put a deposit down on one BTW!) would consume the world's entire output of Lithium batteries, so I wonder how many Tesla are going to have "spare" even with the production capacity of their Gigawatt factory?

[Greg Spalding]

7 minutes ago, Keith said:

..... Except, current projected volume sales of the Tesla 3 (I've just put a deposit down on one BTW!) would consume the world's entire output of Lithium batteries, so I wonder how many Tesla are going to have "spare" even with the production capacity of there Gigawatt factory?

that is INSANE, and awesome

they really have done things right over there... no question about it

good luck with yours

[Jason McNeil]

2017 looks to be an interesting year for battery development. BMZ is a German company that will be manufacturing packs (cells?) in collaboration with Sony. Some of the claims are impressive, but a bit vague:

1. 4x higher output current
2. Lower internal resistance
3. Pack lifespan to 12 years 
4. Lower Wh/$ costs

https://issuu.com/bbvakmedianet/docs/lr_bik12_2016?e=3921137

[US69]

5 minutes ago, Jason McNeil said:

2017 looks to be an interesting year for battery development. BMZ is a German company that will be manufacturing packs (cells?) in collaboration with Sony. Some of the claims are impressive, but a bit vague:

1. 4x higher output current
2. Lower internal resistance
3. Pack lifespan to 12 years 
4. Lower Wh/$ costs

https://issuu.com/bbvakmedianet/docs/lr_bik12_2016?e=3921137

Another article about BMZ:

http://www.bike-eu.com/home/nieuws/2016/9/quantum-leap-in-battery-innovations-presented-at-eurobike-10127504

I like those News, but realistic? They Claim to be produced in Germany which will put up the costs...and then it will take a good amount of time until they reach our "progessive-friendly" Producers in China....

But better than no good News :-)

[lizardmech]

Don't know how they plan to sell them for ebikes in the west. As long as they are crippled by regulations limiting them to 250w peddle assist commercial ebike sales will remain poor regardless of battery tech.

[Mono]

19 hours ago, lizardmech said:

Don't know how they plan to sell them for ebikes in the west. As long as they are crippled by regulations limiting them to 250w peddle assist commercial ebike sales will remain poor regardless of battery tech.

You have no idea. The number of units sold per year in Europe is in the millions and around 10% of each sold bicyle is already exactly this kind of 250W supportive electric bike (despite that they are still quite expensive). Growth is around 10% every year.

See e.g. https://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/19/business/e-bike-sales-are-surging-in-europe.html

EDIT: Forgot to mention that e-bikes which are allowed to go faster are also legal in Europe but need insurance and type approval. They make only 10% of the e-bike market.

[lizardmech]

11 hours ago, Mono said:

You have no idea. The number of units sold per year in Europe is in the millions and around 10% of each sold bicyle is already exactly this kind of 250W supportive electric bike (despite that they are still quite expensive). Growth is around 10% every year.

See e.g. https://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/19/business/e-bike-sales-are-surging-in-europe.html

EDIT: Forgot to mention that e-bikes which are allowed to go faster are also legal in Europe but need insurance and type approval. They make only 10% of the e-bike market.

The adoption rate is tiny compared to anywhere without unreasonable restrictions. 250w mid drive pedelecs are overly complex and overpriced, any healthy person can ride an unpowered bike faster than 25km/h, making the ebike slower for commuting, pedaling the ebike above 25km/h is futile because they're heavier than a conventional bike. Because they still have pedals you have all the downsides of a conventional bicycle, seating position must be uncomfortable to incorporate pedals, chain and gears will tear up baggy clothes.

EUC and cheap folding chinese scooters objectively outperform these for commuting. but somehow a 15kg scooter is more of a motorbike than a 40kg pedelec just because it has a throttle and enough power to climb a hill? These rules have no clear safety objective and no apparent purpose beyond protectionism and discouraging electric vehicle adoption.

[Mono]

7 hours ago, lizardmech said:

The adoption rate is tiny compared to anywhere without unreasonable restrictions.

Ah, do you have a reference/link? Where are more than 10% of all sold bicycles electric and what is the predominant wattage sold?

[lizardmech]

2 minutes ago, Mono said:

Ah, do you have a reference/link? Where are more than 10% of all sold bicycles electric and what is the predominant wattage sold?

Don't have any solid numbers but china has 300m+ ebikes and they're popular throughout Asia with the exception of Japan who adopted the euro rules and subsequently crushed japanese ebike manufacturing. Even the most basic folding scooters are 350w+ and pedelec bikes are ignored due to needless cost and complexity. 250w will barely climb a hill so it's fairly safe to assume almost all asian ones are above the 250w limit. I imagine 400-800watt would end up being the average.

It reminds me of the silly car engine capacity laws japan had on cars during the 1990s, everything had to be 3.2L or smaller and a maximum of 276HP. The car manufacturers almost bankrupted each other wasting money on how to try and get the best performance and comply with the restrictions. Even more amusing most of the 3 liter 6 cylinder engines they built ended up weighing more than large capacity V8s while offering less power, inferior fuel consumption and emissions. Great for US and Euro manufacturers, the regulations practically locked japan out of the entire luxury and sports car market.

If they want to make restrictions on light electric vehicles, limiting mass makes more sense, motorbikes can cause a lot of damage because a 250kg chunk of metal can do a great deal of damage even to cars, they can penetrate car doors in side impacts. A lightweight carbon fiber ebike isn't remotely comparable. 

[Jason McNeil]

Between the pincer movement of PEVs & the mass adoption of ride-share programs, are car makers going to remain relevant in a World where most people live in high-density cities plagued by congestion & pollution? The current position of 1 person = occupying 4.5m x 1.8m road space doesn't scale very well. But cars create a lot of job, trillions are spent around the world on their production, sales, maintenance, insurance, parking, destruction, infrastructure, fueling, testing, etc.. For governments this poses a dilemma, should they wholeheartedly embrace personalized electrification that will inevitably dent car ownership, which does so much to fill their coffers?

Within a few hours, the new European eBike type approval requirements comes into force, that obliges manufacturers to now conduct 'third-party' testing on their equipment. Read below for just how unreasonable this process is! 

http://www.bike-eu.com/laws-regulations/nieuws/2016/1/new-type-approval-for-speed-e-bikes-now-effective-10125384
Directive 2002/24/EC
That will last up to 31 December 2016. During this year manufacturers and e-bike suppliers are allowed to choose between the 2002 system and the new system.

What’s more, the type-approval does not only concern the vehicle as a whole but also many of its components. Consequently, if the manufacturer changes a component, which is regulated by type-approval by a different component, the approval of the original type is no longer valid and the manufacturer has to go through type-approval again. Also, retailers are not entitled to replace type-approved by non-type-approved or different components. They may only use identical type-approved components.

L1e-B is for “mopeds” with maximum 45 km/h and 4 kW. So-called speed pedelecs up to 45 km/h come under this category.
It is unclear how the member states will rule on the conditions for use of these vehicles. Some ministries still seem totally unaware of the issue of electric bikes in type-approval. 

[Chris Westland]

1 hour ago, Jason McNeil said:

Between the pincer movement of PEVs & the mass adoption of ride-share programs, are car makers going to remain relevant in a World where most people live in high-density cities plagued by congestion & pollution? The current position of 1 person = occupying 4.5m x 1.8m road space doesn't scale very well. But cars create a lot of job, trillions are spent around the world on their production, sales, maintenance, insurance, parking, destruction, infrastructure, fueling, testing, etc.. For governments this poses a dilemma, should they wholeheartedly embrace personalized electrification that will inevitably dent car ownership, which does so much to fill their coffers?

This is the big discussion right now on Wall Street, and the reason that Tesla's stock has done well while still burning through piles of $, while in contrast traditional auto firms struggle.   It's now received wisdom that electric self-driving, ride-sharing vehicles are the city transport of the future; we are 1/2 way there with increasingly common autopilots, sharing economy, $30/hr parking (for owners only), and better cheaper batteries.   Zip-car, iGo, etc., Uber-Lyft point-to-point, are doing well in Chicago and other cities, and even now, we personally debate whether we should keep our car, or rent when we need.  With full autonomous ride sharing, we'll be able to rent an autonomous car that will be at our doorstep when we beckon, and be gone when we don't need it.  Blind people, children, invalids, etc. will be able to get around in ways they could not in the past.   Why would you deal with parking, insurance, city stickers, etc. when you could get better services for a fraction of the cost and hassle.

The question is "where do PEV's fit into the mix?"   It has to be where "1 person = occupying 4.5m x 1.8m road space" is a constraint; in malls, parks, pedestrian walkways and shopping districts, and so forth.  We don't see as many of these as say in China or Europe, so the US with it's rural-suburban user base will be car based for a bit longer.  But hopefully in the future US cities will adopt more of these European and Chinese innovations (in design, but without the smog), and PEV's will be an important part of the solution.  In Kunming, Yunnan any motorbike inside the 2nd ring road (an area of ~5 million population) needs to be electric; other cities are adopting similar rules to control pollution. 

[Mono]

14 hours ago, Jason McNeil said:

Some ministries still seem totally unaware of the issue of electric bikes in type-approval. 

90% of the 3 million units sold per year in Europe comes from electric bikes without type-approval before and after 2016, am I wrong?

AFAIK, type approval is a standard procedure for any fast, powered vehicle which wants to enter public roads. Given the value we put on human life, I wouldn't understand why the source of power should make the decisive difference to change that.

[Mono]

23 hours ago, lizardmech said:

Even the most basic folding scooters are 350w+ and pedelec bikes are ignored due to needless cost and complexity.

One can argue about the best numbers for power and weight to regulate e-bikes. I also have the feeling that increasing the limit to, say, 350W without type-approval would be just fine. On the other side, one cannot argue about the success of e-bikes in Europe with the current regulation. You are right, world wide around 90% of the e-bikes are sold in China, and only a little over 3% in Europe.^1 That means (corrected for population) e-bikes are roughly ten times more popular in China than in Europe. Yet, China and Europe are not in a comparable situation. In Europe virtually everybody can effort a car. Yet, we have been seen e-bike sales booming for 5+ years and the data do not suggest that this boom has come to an end yet, despite the regulations in place.^2

Regulations for fast, powered vehicles even if they are light weight are necessary to protect innocent bystanders and children (if they drive). If the Chinese won't regulate them, they will learn this the hard way.

^1 https://www.statista.com/statistics/255658/worldwide-sales-of-electric-bicycles-by-region
^2 http://www.electric-bicycle-guide.com/electric-bicycle-statistics.html