Are EUC manufacturer toy or vehicle manufacturer?

[OliverH]

Over the past 18 month I had a lot investigation and also talks with experts, gov people and manufacturers/ developers.

Most of the manufacturer don't get the story. The world is constant moving. Regulations will control the markets. In my opinion most of the manufacturers didn't realised they're vehicle manufacturers underlying national/ international regulations (street use/ product safety,..). Most of them may be think they manufacture toys/ sport vehicles.

Looking on Europe with the upcoming PLEV standard, Australia which have something in the pipeline, the US with UL2272 (as a first step as battery/ harness only) it would be stupid to think someone can sell EUCs as before. Are there people at the manufacturers dealing with this regulations?

Regulation and safety know how is missing at the current manufacturers. There's need of a mindset change. The manufacturers need new people with different knowledge to develop future products.

It would be interesting to make a time travel of 12-24 month in the future to see which company opted out or got off from international markets. I think there will be new companies emerging.

What do you think?

[Mistagear]

I'm not confident ANY manufacturers will exist within 24 months.

A large percentage of current sales are to existing enthusiasts and little evidence that there is significant first time owners entering the market. Electric Unicycles are not being perceived as a mainstream form of transport by the general population.

Add to this the additional legal obligations which are likely to be imposed on manufacturers, and the continued difficulty with shipping (both pre and post purchase)

With difficulties increasing and market acceptance non existent except for a niche market, we could easily see manufacturers disappear quickly.

You merely need to look at this forum for clues to the future, same regular posters, very few new ones and declining traffic to the site

I hope I'm wrong, because I love eWheels, but that is my fear 

[esaj]

1 hour ago, Mistagear said:

I'm not confident ANY manufacturers will exist within 24 months.

A large percentage of current sales are to existing enthusiasts and little evidence that there is significant first time owners entering the market. Electric Unicycles are not being perceived as a mainstream form of transport by the general population.

Add to this the additional legal obligations which are likely to be imposed on manufacturers, and the continued difficulty with shipping (both pre and post purchase)

With difficulties increasing and market acceptance non existent except for a niche market, we could easily see manufacturers disappear quickly.

You merely need to look at this forum for clues to the future, same regular posters, very few new ones and declining traffic to the site

I hope I'm wrong, because I love eWheels, but that is my fear 

I think it's quite the opposite, public is just becoming aware of the existence of the wheels. People do know hoverboards, but not that many know of unicycles. The forum seems to keep breaking the "Most online"-numbers constantly, here's the latest:

Most Online

821
Thursday at 10:44 PM

 

 

 

Many riders probably don't know of the existence of the forums, many registered members have never posted, and many visit just as guests, not bothering to register, as they just read, that probably contributes to the feeling that there are just a "few" members. The members count hasn't gone up as fast as it seems there are people visiting.

Total Members

2,875

If one out of 10 wheel owners would have registered here, it would mean around 29000 riders worldwide. That's probably low-balling it, let's say one out of 100 riders registers here. That's 290000 riders worldwide. But that could be exaggeration? Hard to say for sure, as no company/reseller probably publishes their sales numbers..

Of course the shipment restrictions and high(ish) prices will be obstacles for many, but those can be overcome, like ship the wheels & batteries separately, or build the battery packs from single cells & BMSs in the destination country... that could actually bring work to people making the packs   What can of course turn the tide is legal matters, like banning the wheels entirely. Luckily, here in Finland, they actually became legal at the turn of the year, with separate traffic laws for self-balancing vehicles (highlights: 1000W max continuous power, 25km/h max speed on bike lanes, allowed to ride in pedestrian lanes with speed accustomed to pedestrian traffic...).

[JumpMaster]

As with any technology it starts expensive with a small number of users which lowers the price and expands the products reach.  The original Segway cost over $5000 but now a high quality wheel is sub $1500.  With the launch of the V5F+ we'll start seeing sub $1000 wheels that are also sub 30lbs in weight.  When I tell people the KS16 weighs 37lbs they lose interest in using it to commute.

Electric unicycles will become more common in the next 2 years which will lead to laws and regulations. Fun times ahead!

[OliverH]

4 hours ago, Mistagear said:

I'm not confident ANY manufacturers will exist within 24 months.

A large percentage of current sales are to existing enthusiasts and little evidence that there is significant first time owners entering the market. Electric Unicycles are not being perceived as a mainstream form of transport by the general population.

Add to this the additional legal obligations which are likely to be imposed on manufacturers, and the continued difficulty with shipping (both pre and post purchase)

With difficulties increasing and market acceptance non existent except for a niche market, we could easily see manufacturers disappear quickly.

You merely need to look at this forum for clues to the future, same regular posters, very few new ones and declining traffic to the site

I hope I'm wrong, because I love eWheels, but that is my fear 

Oh dear. It's a freak business today with some enthusiastic mainstream people.

Disappearing of EUC business: We all fight that this wouldn't happen. But there will may be a shift of sales volume between companies and/ or to other countries/ regions (companies HQ/ R&D).

As eWheels are the most practical City, urban and commuting transportation devices (we must use the booster of the Kyoto protocol) this story must have good end   Regulations can be used to help this business to success.

[Jurgen]

It's a rubber band with "Transportation" written on it, pulled from 3 different sides: consumer interest in a gadget (see hooverboards) vs regulator vs environmentalist

When I take a look in my crystal ball, I see extremely fast charging batteries will become available around 2020.  EU countries will start to ban fossile engine cars by 2030, with some struggling because the country's electricity grid is not good enough to support a fast charging infrastructure all over the country. I see political 'riots' in some EU countries fueled by the fact that 100% ZEV's means new nuclear powerplants infrastructure. (I doubt if in this scenario f. ex. even a country Germany would have enough green energy to cover it's local demand). In short, to work out it should all be integrated into one vision/mission: batteries, charging infrastructure, e-grid, e-production. The main question is probably not IF we will get there, but WHEN.

The EUC as we know it today, will probably remain a niche product if it's not integrated in this vision. An Audi ZEV concept displayed beginning of this year, with an integrated charging cradle in the trunk for an electric scateboard shows a possible scenario for mass-marketing a personal electric transportation device. For those here on the forum that are old enough to remember Betamax vs VHS, it's not the best product that wins in mass-marketing a product but the company with the deepest pockets.

 

 

[OliverH]

22 minutes ago, Jurgen said:

It's a rubber band with "Transportation" written on it, pulled from 3 different sides: consumer interest in a gadget (see hooverboards) vs regulator vs environmentalist

When I take a look in my crystal ball, I see extremely fast charging batteries will become available around 2020.  EU countries will start to ban fossile engine cars by 2030, with some struggling because the country's electricity grid is not good enough to support a fast charging infrastructure all over the country. I see political 'riots' in some EU countries fueled by the fact that 100% ZEV's means new nuclear powerplants infrastructure. (I doubt if in this scenario f. ex. even a country Germany would have enough green energy to cover it's local demand). In short, to work out it should all be integrated into one vision/mission: batteries, charging infrastructure, e-grid, e-production. The main question is probably not IF we will get there, but WHEN.

The EUC as we know it today, will probably remain a niche product if it's not integrated in this vision. An Audi ZEV concept displayed beginning of this year, with an integrated charging cradle in the trunk for an electric scateboard shows a possible scenario for mass-marketing a personal electric transportation device. For those here on the forum that are old enough to remember Betamax vs VHS, it's not the best product that wins in mass-marketing a product but the company with the deepest pockets.

 

 

New nuclear powerplants are planned for Sweden. They rejected the second time the nuclear powerplant rundown plan. There's a plan to replace all existing nuclear powerplants by time.

Green energy is a real problem. The germans started on a good base with the wind mill park (Baltic 1 & 2), currently failed with connectivity on Borkum wind mill park (happens in 2020 - no comment).

The Dutch gov plans to forbid for the Netherlands from 2025 new cars with fossil motors (existing cars can be kept and be driven). That's because of the Kyoto protocol addendum 2030 to reduce CO2 pollution.

2020, 203 and 2050 are the magic numbers of success for eMobility (cars). Micromobility can take a stake and be part of success. But I don't like to stress anyone

<irony> But we need a manufacturer willing to sell his products in big volumes </irony>

[esaj]

2 hours ago, Jurgen said:

For those here on the forum that are old enough to remember Betamax vs VHS, it's not the best product that wins in mass-marketing a product but the company with the deepest pockets.

Not old enough to remember it (born in the early 80's), but I've heard that VHS won because porn-industry chose it over the (more expensive?) Betamax?

[Jurgen]

3 minutes ago, esaj said:

Not old enough to remember it (born in the early 80's), but I've heard that VHS won because porn-industry chose it over the (more expensive?) Betamax?

Convenience (>content) won over quality (technology)

But indeed the wide spread availability of porn on VHS also helped in mass-marketing, and history will repeat itself (as it always does) in 3D and robotics+AI

Yep, the main driver of the human race as a species is not intellect, but sex. Look at life as a sexually  highly transmittable self-terminating disease. Unfortunately for our poor planet the self-terminating part is out of balance with the transmittable part. Electric cars and EUC are not going to saves us in the long run, as it only postponing the inevitable; the true potential lies in birth control.

[Planetpapi]

If  mainstream celebrities show up on their EUCs regularly in the media, the momentum will pickup in the general public. The only downside to the EUC is the learning curve compared to, say Segway.  However there will be a niche market for it in the future too. I hope companies make them as good as Segways in terms of redundancy and safety. And if it was as easy as riding a Segway, many tourist attractions may stock them for renting. They can stock 6 EUCs for the price of ONE Segway. I'm not too keen to see it in the distant future like 2050. Other developments like real hover boards are in rapid progress and that may takeover if the price is right. 

[Mono]

12 hours ago, Mistagear said:

You merely need to look at this forum for clues to the future, same regular posters, very few new ones and declining traffic to the site

Where do you have this information from, in particular how do you know the traffic to the site? 

[Mono]

To my understanding, correct me if I am wrong, would European laws define devices to be allowed in all European Union countries. They would not require that all other devices must be forbidden. IICR Scandinavian countries already have introduced some overall pretty reasonable laws. If the new European standards were more restrictive it would not have any bearing on the existing Scandinavian laws. It would only mean that Germany finally must (and will) allow devices as defined according to European law. 

As someone said before in this forum, in the end laws which do in effect diminish the use of EUCs will be ridiculed in comparison to, say, Finish laws. This process however could take years or even decades, as it is sometimes impossible to change some peoples opinion irrespectively of overwhelming evidence.

Speaking about ridiculous disincentives, until a few years ago Swiss required each and every bicycle(!) to have an insurance sticker which was to be renewed yearly.

I would be quite surprised if the number of sold EUCs outside of China would not increase monotonically each year for the next ten years. Do we have any records for this? I would also think that the age group 5-20 years will start to grow over-proportionally, though maybe not too visibly in this forum  or due to the ACM. 

EDIT: and the answer the title is that they are both, toy and "vehicle" manufacturers, as bicycle manufacturers are.

[Mono]

10 hours ago, OliverH said:

Green energy is a real problem. The germans started on a good base with the wind mill park (Baltic 1 & 2), currently failed with connectivity on Borkum wind mill park (happens in 2020 - no comment).

To all I know there is no principle hurdle to consume 100% renewable electricity in all of Europe or the USA. Countries like Germany, Italy, Spain, Sweden and Norway, to name just a few, produce already between 30% and 100% of their electricity renewably,^1 even though many existing potentials have not been remotely exploited in most of them. To get to 100% timely (say in 30 years), we would need to be willing to accept that electricity would be more expensive than it is now (the factor is probably between two and three). Additionally, we would probably need to be willing to trade electricity directly, like we are now willing to trade the means to produce electricity, namely oil and gas and uranium.

Having said all this, the more important goal is of course to replace as much as possible of the overall energy consumption with renewable, not only electricity.  

^1 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_electricity_production_from_renewable_sources

[MetricUSA]

The only way to consume 100% green, is within your own home, right now I have '300 watts' solar making average of 200 va (250 w max) or about 1 kW a day, but buy from a solar utility, too....

There still a market for eus, too many still don't know what they are...the cost of them is a month or two of car ownership....the savings is there to compel to use them, where they not what to use a bike (Are bikes toys? Depends who you are and what you do with it)....

 as for new thinking... maybe new sensors will be added like ground distances that will help prevent over 'leaning' crashes, and Gotway just has to limit overspeeding/loading cutoffs....cars have abilities to go 160-200 km/h but normally and rightfully only do 100 km/h and less, there is no reason Gotway or owners of them must max out their vehicles! 

[Mono]

1 minute ago, MetricUSA said:

cars have abilities to go 160-200 km/h but normally and rightfully only do 100 km/h and less

you apparently don't go by German standards  I believe on this side of the ocean car manufacturers have an (gentleman's) agreement to electronically limit the speed of their cars to 250km/h. No joke. 

[OliverH]

15 hours ago, Niko said:

To my understanding, correct me if I am wrong, would European laws define devices to be allowed in all European Union countries. They would not require that all other devices must be forbidden. IICR Scandinavian countries already have introduced some overall pretty reasonable laws. If the new European standards were more restrictive it would not have any bearing on the existing Scandinavian laws. It would only mean that Germany finally must (and will) allow devices as defined according to European law. 

As someone said before in this forum, in the end laws which do in effect diminish the use of EUCs will be ridiculed in comparison to, say, Finish laws. This process however could take years or even decades, as it is sometimes impossible to change some peoples opinion irrespectively of overwhelming evidence.

Speaking about ridiculous disincentives, until a few years ago Swiss required each and every bicycle(!) to have an insurance sticker which was to be renewed yearly.

I would be quite surprised if the number of sold EUCs outside of China would not increase monotonically each year for the next ten years. Do we have any records for this? I would also think that the age group 5-20 years will start to grow over-proportionally, though maybe not too visibly in this forum  or due to the ACM. 

EDIT: and the answer the title is that they are both, toy and "vehicle" manufacturers, as bicycle manufacturers are.

There's no European commission or UN ECE regulation available covering self balancing vehicles. Right now we see so different flavours how to handle it:
There are countries saying let it go, we monitor it.
Others made their job and followed valid safety/ street laws covering self balancing vehicles in an own vehicle category. This can be done on a national regulation up to the moment an European commission or UN ECE is made available as mandatory for all countries:
- Switzerland incorporated EUC in the VTS as a subset of motor bicycles (one and two wheel)
- Germany incorporated standup rollers in MobHV, currently 2 wheel only

In most countries there's a difference between motor powered vehicles and human powered vehicles (which could be power assisted). That's the big difference why eBikes having lower regulations than EUCs (beside the self balancing, no mechanical brake issue).

As a toy I would tax a skateboard, roller blades,..

[Rehab1]

 With Segway refusing to sell it's new Ninebot One Pro in America this could be considered  a downward shift in consumer support,at least in America. Or is Segway's decision purely political resulting from probable litigation cases resulting from consumers not obtaining the proper training or wearing adequate protection will riding. America is a litigious society I must admit. Certainly not proud of that fact.

I have a call out to Segway for their input on this new development. Once I find out more I will update!

[dmethvin]

2 hours ago, Rehab1 said:

 With Segway refusing to sell it's new Ninebot One Pro in America this could be considered  a downward shift in consumer support,at least in America. Or is Segway's decision purely political resulting from probable litigation cases resulting from consumers not obtaining the proper training or wearing adequate protection will riding. America is a litigious society I must admit. Certainly not proud of that fact.

It's hard to know what made them decide that. It could be that they can't meet US demand and preferred to send production to places where they already have good distribution. It could also be that they are concerned the One will somehow cannibalize sales of the Segway line, which no doubt makes them a lot more margin per unit. Given all the firmware issues they've caused with the One and the Mini Pro they may also rightly be wary of dealing with consumer protection issues. There are plenty of products like ATVs that can be dangerous when used correctly but can still be sold. Having the manufacturer carelessly ship dangerous firmware updates is a different situation in my opinion, and they should bear more responsibility for that.

[mhpr262]

Forum membership is not a good way of measuring interest in something. I have been active in the RC aircraft and RC car scene and variuos online communities for many years, and membership and activity in the relevant major forums has declined sharply over all those years. It's all taking place on facebook these days.

[Jurgen]

2 hours ago, mhpr262 said:

Forum membership is not a good way of measuring interest in something. I have been active in the RC aircraft and RC car scene and variuos online communities for many years, and membership and activity in the relevant major forums has declined sharply over all those years. It's all taking place on facebook these days.

There's probably a selection bias, which could account for the relatively high mean age on the forum.

On the other hand it looks like the mean age is dropping lately, maybe because this is where the most interesting information is discussed by the most sensible (ahum) and mature (ahem, ahem) riders?

 

[David S]

8 hours ago, mhpr262 said:

Forum membership is not a good way of measuring interest in something. I have been active in the RC aircraft and RC car scene and variuos online communities for many years, and membership and activity in the relevant major forums has declined sharply over all those years. It's all taking place on facebook these days.

I much prefer to read about things on forums than facebook, it's unfortunate if it is shifting that way.