Where is EUC market heading? End of spec wars

[InfiniteWheelie]

On 7/28/2024 at 4:10 PM, WheelGoodTime said:

Manufacturers have essentially reached the end of the "voltage wars" because the market doesn't want 130+ lbs EUCs with 200v+ if they are able to achieve their desired performance goals with something smaller and more portable. After all. It's called "micro"mobility for a reason 😀

Now that we have basically reached the end of the voltage wars, manufacturers need to find other means to attract sales. That takes the form of better waterproofing, more safety features, general quality of life improvements, and better build quality/durability. LK is leading the charge with all those "other" things, and it's resonating with the EUC market - LK just can't (or won't? But that's another discussion...) keep up with the high demand 🙂

I disagree about reaching the end of the "voltage wars", at least in theory. I believe the biggest bottleneck to more power is the motor. Hub motors are low RPM machines with poor cooling, both of which limit power. Voltage essentially gives “free” power since it creates no extra heat.

Modern performance wheels are in the 4-8p range. The Lynx is 4p, the Sherman L is 6p, and the Master Pro is 8p. Let's take the Sherman L for example, which is arguably the best all around wheel currently and a jack of all trades.

If we instead made the battery 2p (1p per side), we could 3x the voltage to 450v with the same amount of cells. If we keep the current the same, this gives the motor 3x the continuous power, going 3.2kw to nearly 10kw. I think a total of 2p should be the minimum since it allows for battery redundancy.

Could the battery output 10kw continuous? Well the Sherman L has an actual capacity of 3888wh, requiring a continuous output of just 2.5c. The Samsung 50S cells are in fact rated for 5c continuous, so they should easily be capable of this.

Could a controller output 10kw continuous? Probably because I know there are aftermarket controllers for Surron e-bikes with power well above that, which are physically small enough for our purposes. They operate at much lower voltages though, so I'm not sure how expensive high voltage components are.

 

In summary by creating 2p wheels (1p per side), with the same amount of cells, we'd have wheels in the 300-600v range. The higher voltage would enable the biggest bottleneck (the motors) to output 2-4x the power. Modern battery and controller technology is already capable of this increase in power.

Edited July 30 by InfiniteWheelie

[UniVehje]

On 7/28/2024 at 11:10 PM, WheelGoodTime said:

Manufacturers have essentially reached the end of the "voltage wars" because the market doesn't want 130+ lbs EUCs with 200v+ if they are able to achieve their desired performance goals with something smaller and more portable. After all. It's called "micro"mobility for a reason 😀

Now that we have basically reached the end of the voltage wars, manufacturers need to find other means to attract sales. That takes the form of better waterproofing, more safety features, general quality of life improvements, and better build quality/durability. LK is leading the charge with all those "other" things, and it's resonating with the EUC market - LK just can't (or won't? But that's another discussion...) keep up with the high demand 🙂

Having just bought a motorcycle (needed something new to learn) I think EUC market will follow similar path as motorcycles. Once the race to higher volts and speeds reaches the law of diminishing returns (already has IMO), the market will focus on other features and other types of wheels. Motorcycles have developed into certain categories like dirt bikes, dual sports, adventure bikes, cruisers, tourers, scramblers, sport/street bikes, mopeds and scooters. Different types for different needs. 

Motorcycles in most categories are not competing on more cc, hp and top speed. Rather they develop better suspension, seat, heated grips etc. I've also noticed that weight seems to be important feature for motorcycles also. There will always be those who want more power and buy 1000 cc sport bikes and Hayabusas. But that's only a part of the market. There's a healthy market for light weight 400-450 cc adventure bikes and dirt riders know that the bottle neck is traction on dirt and you don't need that much power, light weight is better. I think (and hope) EUC market will follow similar path. At some point it doesn't make sense to keep upping the specs and speeds and manufacturers find out there's a market for different wheels. 

No one has made a good seat yet, for example. We mostly rely on after market seats. There's a lot to innovate in EUC market without always going for higher specs. Manufacturers could just copy motorcycle (and moped) market and find new customers without developing higher voltages and top speeds. How about a light weight dirt wheel? Or a long range but light weight touring wheel (for casual travel) with heated seat and built in fast charger with type-2 plug? Or a simple and cheap commuter with modern features? And I just on my last ride was thinking about a cruiser wheel with comfy seat and feet in forward position. 

(topic split from Sherman L discussion)

Edited July 30 by UniVehje

[MacGyverCanada]

Quote

 There's a healthy market for light weight 400-450 cc adventure bikes and dirt riders know that the bottle neck is traction on dirt and you don't need that much power, light weight is better. I think (and hope) EUC market will follow similar path.

Yes please.

[on one]

2 hours ago, UniVehje said:

Manufacturers could just copy motorcycle (and moped) market and find new customers without developing higher voltages and top speeds.

My idea for a true Tesla wheel, powered by wireless electricity may never exist in our particular expression of the multiverse, I would love to just replace my battery with an antenna tuned to receive wireless electricity.

[Anthraksi]

I don't think the spec wars are ending before we reach 200v. KS was already testing a +170v F22 but it hasn't materialized yet for some reason.

But yes diminishing returns are here either way. I don't think there is much to gain from increasing voltage anymore and +60mph speeds are just fucking stupid anyway. I mean if you want to get yourself killed go ahead, you can probably do it at lower speeds as well. You are better off getting a motorcycle if you truly want to blast 60mph on a single tyre.

There is also the reality that we are already limited by other factors. The wheels have power yes, but the power needs to be limited while taking off to make sure the tire has enough grip on the surface of the road to prevent it skidding. Since if you manage to skid the wheel, you are eating pavement, we don't have a second tire that still has grip on the road.

Voltage also isn't the be all end all when it comes to power and torque. The Sherman S is a 100.8v wheel which should basically be absolutely shit when it comes to comparing it to +120v wheels like the S22 and EX30, but no, it holds it's own against them. Also looking at other PEV's, we got electric scooters that are 72v (nominal, so 84v in our terms) that go the +60mph, so how come they smoke a lot of the EUCs that are way higher voltage? I don't really know the answer for this one, but at least it tells me that voltage does not equal power.

We are however getting some nice security features to the wheels. Smart BMS's are available on almost every new wheel (and if it isn't that new wheel is probably dead on arrival) and LK wheels are starting to be able to be ridden without the hall sensor entirely. At least for a while until you fix it, but it isn't an instant crash if you lose the hall sensor. Granted, it hasn't been for a while, but it's better than what we had before.

Wheels also have pretty good safety features when it comes to overleaning them. They beep and sometimes even tilt back to let you know that you shouldn't push it farther. Your own fault if you do and eat shit as a result.

But in the end the manufacturers don't care what individuals want, they care about what the vocal majority wants. And they seem to currently want more power, more speed and more torque. So thats what we are getting for now.

[on one]

6 minutes ago, Anthraksi said:

I don't think the spec wars are ending before we reach 200v.

Agreed. Then the industry will likely follow the Apple Computer pursuit of providing more compute for less energy usage, so it follows that EUC manufacturers should then start to provide more power for less energy usage.

[MacGyverCanada]

6 hours ago, on one said:

My idea for a true Tesla wheel, powered by wireless electricity may never exist in our particular expression of the multiverse, I would love to just replace my battery with an antenna tuned to receive wireless electricity.

Yeah lots of the newer models already have Bluetooth.

[mhpr262]

1 hour ago, Anthraksi said:

so how come they smoke a lot of the EUCs that are way higher voltage?

Their motors are much smaller than our pancake-sized EUC motors and the copper windings are far, far shorter. That means that they can send much higher currents through them and still keep losses acceptable. They generate power with lots of Amperes, EUCs have to rely on high voltage to achieve the same. Plus slow-spinning hub motors are not really a great design for electric motors. A smaller sized motor with a high ratio reduction gear would be far lighter at the same power. But also much more complicated, maintenance intensive and more difficult to implement, and it would be far easier to break - see the old Rockwheels with the internal gearing.

[meepmeepmayer]

I am not so sure the voltage wars are over quite yet.

With our current battery cells, a 4p configuration seems to be the accepted minimum for a peak performance wheel. The question is: with increasing voltage, how big and (heavy!) will that battery be? An answer: a 252V (60s, 3x84V where 168V is 2x84V) 4p battery is 4440Wh. We already have a performance wheel with that battery size, the Commander GT Pro+. In other words, the manufacturers could make a 252V speed wheel without doing anything fundamentally new.

So I would not be surprised to see voltages going up to around 250V for speed-focused wheels. Unless almost nobody wants any faster wheels, and I'm not sure we are quite there yet - there are enough crazy guys around for BG or EB to quickly put out a hastily built, shiny new expensive heavy speed demon thing.

Though I agree that voltage isn't everything anymore, and more and more wheels will freely change their voltage to what they want to achieve, and no longer have to go for the highest voltage they possibly can. This is good for everyone.

[on one]

It's easy a n d perilous to get addicted to speed. When I'm riding, speed does provide an euphoria that dumbs my senses to go faster to get more euphoria without looking at traffic or thinking about my immediate and long term route. The speed addiction is a problem. The struggle is real. That's why it's ethically questionable for manufacturers to keep feeding this euphoria addiction with more and more dangerous wheels, not to get too judgy here, that same euphoria can be had by riding in circles  really fast too.

[Anthraksi]

13 minutes ago, meepmeepmayer said:

In other words, the manufacturers could make a 252V speed wheel without doing anything fundamentally new.

Kinda, but not really. This would hike up the price of the controller by quite a bit, since using 200v mosfets would be out of the question at that point. 300v mosfets would be the minimum most likely. Also the rest of the electronics would need to follow suit, I'd wager the BMS's for the batteries would also be more expensive, the wiring would have to be beefier and basically everything would have to be considerably beefed up compared to what it is now. This hikes up the price, and we are already pushing the limits of how much people are willing to invest in an EUC. Pushing 5k USD seems to be a limit for quite a lot of people, as evidenced by the Sherman L. Even if this abomination would be made by Begode or EB (which would automatically make me not even want to touch the thing, let alone ride it or keep in my apartment) I don't think there would be a possibility of this being under 5k.

So while it is theoretically possible, I think there is probably a good enough reason why no one has done it yet and ended the voltage wars in one single wheel release.

[Anthraksi]

While I do have a faint memory of Begode/EB considering making a beefy as shit EUC that costs like 6k, I think it was mostly range related at that point. But thats all it was, a rumour. It had some merit to it but I guess nothing came of it.

 

 

[meepmeepmayer]

Interesting argument. Manufacturers have lots of voltages nowadays, even funny one-time ones like the F22, whereas a few years ago, a new voltage board was a big new thing. So I expected building new voltage boards to be no big deal. Maybe it is harder to do (especially including a reasonable price) than I thought.

[alcatraz]

There's a lot left in the battery department without making a pack super heavy.

With high current 50S (or better yet, its successor) you can achieve 300V by reducing the parallels.

40S2P = 5.6kg 168V 50A cont 1480Wh.

80S2P = 11.2kg 336V 50A cont 2960Wh.

With next gen cells you get the same current as today's packs but with reduced parallels/higher voltages. And I'm not talking about solid state. This stuff is available around the corner.

Edited July 31 by alcatraz

[meepmeepmayer]

(The first post of this topic is new, as it was forgotten in the topic all of this was apparently split off from.)

[techyiam]

With the 151.2 V Lynx selling so well in contrast to the 168V wheels (ET Max, GT Pro), of which both are 4P wheels, it isn't clear that higher voltage wheels are necessarily being perceived as more desirable. 

For range wheels, sure, higher voltages may work, but it is not clear how big a market is there for heavy long range wheels. 

Should the Sherman-L proved to be a hot seller, then I can see some manufacturers may go into that market segment with a higher voltage, 4P configuration wheel. 

In the US market, the top-speed war doesn't seemed to have ended yet.

The F22 sounds like a new contender, and in 2025, Inmotion's flagship wheel should be a fast wheel too.

It's too early yet to know which way that will go.

I suspect weather proofing and smart BMS are areas where we will continue to see improvements with time.

One would think by now with such high speed capable wheels, the manufacturers would be more serious with motorcycle-grade lighting, turn signal lights included, especially in the US market where there are people riding in car traffic.

The Samsung 50S appears to be battery cell of choice for the time being.

With the successful launch of the Lynx, and possibly the Sherman-L too, being lighter than their competitors could be one of the more important factors.

Quite possibly, an increase in the number of new models with hydraulic suspension. 

We may see a slow regression in weight for some wheels.

Build quality may continue to improve for some wheels. 

However, I'm not sure how far into the future we have to wait until we can stop worrying about early batch issues altogether. 

Edited July 31 by techyiam

[Anthraksi]

I don’t think the F22 will be a contender in anything. It seems to release too late. Plus it weighs 45-50kg according to the spec sheet so the Sherman L beats it in that department as well. Plus KS has a bad track record with new wheel launches. A day late and a dollar short

I think the Sherman L should launch relatively problem free, as it should use the same controller as the Lynx. No point in redesigning it either. I hope the issues with the Lynx are now sorted, since the random cut offs were really dangerous. Plus the calibration issues, the issues with the headlights… It wasn’t a very good launch and some issues have persisted pretty long but I hope the L launches without issues and remains that way.

Afaik the Sherman S has lived its life without any software/firmware issues. It had the bad suspension clamps and some friction on the stanchions but thats about it from what I have seen and heard. It was their fourth 100.8v wheel so guess it makes sense.

[noonewantstobepeterchris]

20 hours ago, on one said:

Agreed. Then the industry will likely follow the Apple Computer pursuit of providing more compute for less energy usage, so it follows that EUC manufacturers should then start to provide more power for less energy usage.

Lol, that doesn’t follow at all. Motors are a VERY mature technology, transistors and ICs are still maturing.

[on one]

personally, I rather enjoy exploring ideas using logic by analogy mostly for creative purposes. I am not an engineer, yet, maybe never, I believe energy supply, currently batteries, could become something else like wireless energy transfer, which would reduce my 14D battery to practically zero.

[MacGyverCanada]

Quote

I believe energy supply, currently batteries, could become something else like wireless energy transfer

We can't even do that yet for a cell phone that's stationary inside a room, let alone a vehicle rolling through the countryside at 75km/h and pulling 8kW peak power...  Maybe some day but that day is likely to be pretty far away.  I wouldn't place any bets on that happening within my lifetime.

Edited July 31 by macgyvercanada

[MacGyverCanada]

6 hours ago, techyiam said:

The F22 sounds like a new contender, and in 2025, Inmotion's flagship wheel should be a fast wheel too.

Inmotion got in pretty early with the V13.   I'm hoping they aren't riding the "moar speed" bandwagon with literally every other manufacturer...   it would be great if they could just get back to dominating the mostly-ignored premium commuter EUC market.

Edited July 31 by macgyvercanada

[on one]

13 minutes ago, macgyvercanada said:

We can't even do that yet for a cell phone that's stationary inside a room, let alone a vehicle rolling through the countryside at 75km/h and pulling 8kW peak power...  Maybe some day but that day is likely to be pretty far away.  I wouldn't place any bets on that happening within my lifetime.

Military and hackers can do it now in our lifetime. Consumers like us,  trickle down tek.

[techyiam]

51 minutes ago, macgyvercanada said:

Inmotion got in pretty early with the V13.   I'm hoping they aren't jumping on the "moar speed" bandwagon with literally every other manufacturer...   it would be great if they could just get back to dominating the mostly-ignored commuter EUC market.

But the V13 didn't sell as well as Inmotion had wanted. People who wanted speed mostly went for the Master at the time. And some went for the Master Pro when that came out.

Manufacturers go after markets that are most profitable.

Leaper Kim has been successful with big fast wheels. However, in terms of weight and maneuverability, they have red lines they try not to cross, after learning their lesson from the Abrams. Mind you, their reputation for well built wheels helped too.

It does appear the sweet spot for the most profitable hot seller for non-beginners is defined by the Lynx, because the US has the largest euc market, and the Lynx is popular among the riders there.

Basically, the Lynx ended up being the Master killer, and the ET Max, and the GT Pro haven't yet managed to successfully become the Lynx killer.

Edited July 31 by techyiam

[on one]

Why can't manufacturers just let the Lynx be the best in class, then move on to work on all the other features we want installed on our EUC's?

[on one]

If I had a specialty electronics shop here in Casper and I only had a LeaperKim Lynx and a King Song S16 pro in stock, they would both sell withing 10 days time because folks in Wyoming have a large disposable income because there's not State income tax, rent is low while wages are high. Even at Mcdonalds a crew member commands 14$ per hour while minimum wage is only 7.25$ per hour.