The Brahan Seer Posted May 28, 2023 Share Posted May 28, 2023 (edited) On 5/28/2023 at 8:44 AM, Zrex90 said: n a 6p configuration you have 144 cells, then the 1 for 10 Millions becomes 1 for 69 444. No it doesn't it becomes 144 in 10 million which isn't the same as 1 in 69444. Edited May 29, 2023 by mrelwood Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mono Posted May 29, 2023 Share Posted May 29, 2023 On 5/28/2023 at 11:59 AM, The Brahan Seer said: No it doesn't it becomes 144 in 10 million which isn't the same as 1 in 69444. I am confused, 144 in 10 million is not the same as 1 in 69144? Do you mean that 1 in 70,000 is too large an estimate because failure is correlated with batch and all units from a pack is usually from the same batch? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Brahan Seer Posted May 29, 2023 Author Share Posted May 29, 2023 48 minutes ago, Mono said: I am confused, 144 in 10 million is not the same as 1 in 69144? um a way of looking at it is... if you have a 6 chamber gun and you play russian roulette and you play once you have a 1 in six chance of losing. If you then played it again the odds don't change its still 1 in six chance of losing but could be written as 2 in 6 but this doesn't mean its now 1 in 3. Hope this helps. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrelwood Posted May 29, 2023 Share Posted May 29, 2023 3 hours ago, The Brahan Seer said: um a way of looking at it is... if you have a 6 chamber gun and you play russian roulette and you play once you have a 1 in six chance of losing. If you then played it again the odds don't change its still 1 in six chance of losing but could be written as 2 in 6 but this doesn't mean its now 1 in 3. Hope this helps. 1/6 can never be written as 2/6. And 2/6 always equals 1/3. You have to be careful which probability is it that you’re asking and calculating. The probability for losing a single pull is always 1/6 (as long as you roll the barrel each time). But your chances of survival from two tries is 5/6 * 5/6 = 25/36 = 0.694, which is more than 2/3 (= 4/6 = 0.667). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Brahan Seer Posted May 29, 2023 Author Share Posted May 29, 2023 (edited) 3 hours ago, mrelwood said: 1/6 can never be written as 2/6. And 2/6 always equals 1/3. Only in fractions, Odds have nothing to do with fractions as you have pointed out. In odds the first figure is how many chances and the second is of them coming up. Usually it is written as 6/2 but the logic is still the same. First figure is of them coming up, second how many chances. It is important to understand this otherwise people will think the risks are higher than they actually are. Every cell still has a 1 in 10 million chance of failure and this doesn't change irrespective of how many cells you have hence 144 in 10 million. You can not treat it as a fraction as it isn't one. Edited May 29, 2023 by The Brahan Seer Clarify and why Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrelwood Posted May 29, 2023 Share Posted May 29, 2023 (edited) 22 minutes ago, The Brahan Seer said: Only in fractions, Odds have nothing to do with fractions as you have pointed out. In odds the first figure is how many chances and the second is of them coming up. Odds and probabilities are indicated differently. Odds don’t use fractions, probabilities do. Odds use a ratio. For example, when you toss a coin, the odds of getting heads are 1:1. One event of it happening, one event of not happening. The probability of getting heads is 50%, which is the same as 0.5, or 1/2. Or 2/4 for that matter. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Odds https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probability Edited May 29, 2023 by mrelwood Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Brahan Seer Posted May 29, 2023 Author Share Posted May 29, 2023 But you appreciate that the odds are not 1 in 69444? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrelwood Posted May 29, 2023 Share Posted May 29, 2023 1 minute ago, The Brahan Seer said: But you appreciate that the odds are not 1 in 69444? Odds being 1 to 69143 (1:69143) are the same as a probability of 1 out of 69144 (1/69144). And that’s the probability of having a bum cell in a 144 cell pack. I don’t think odds can be A in B. That would indicate a fraction, ie. a probability. Odds are a ratio, ie. A to B. The odds of a one in a million chance of happening are one to 999999. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Brahan Seer Posted May 29, 2023 Author Share Posted May 29, 2023 If you buy a lottery ticket that has a 1 in a million chance of winning buying two tickets increases your chances by 2 but that doesn't mean you now have a 1 in 500,000 chance of winning its 2 in a million chance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Brahan Seer Posted May 29, 2023 Author Share Posted May 29, 2023 8 minutes ago, mrelwood said: Odds being 1 to 69143 (1:69143) are the same as a probability of 1 out of 69144 (1/69144). And that’s the probability of having a bum cell in a 144 cell pack. This makes no sense. You have a 1 in 10 million chance of a faulty cell but if you have 144 cells it suddenly means the odds are now 1 in 69143. If you buy 1 cell you have a 1 in 10 million chance of it being faulty. If you buy a second cell it has a 1 in 10 million chance of being faulty. If you buy a third cell it has a 1 in 10 million chance of being faulty. But as you buy more the odds of you buying a dodgy cell increases by number bought against 10 million. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrelwood Posted May 29, 2023 Share Posted May 29, 2023 1 minute ago, The Brahan Seer said: If you buy a lottery ticket that has a 1 in a million chance of winning buying two tickets increases your chances by 2 but that doesn't mean you now have a 1 in 500,000 chance of winning its 2 in a million chance. They are the same thing. Why wouldn’t they be? If you throw two dice at the same time, your chances of getting two sixes are still 1 in 36, despite you having thrown two dice. 1 minute ago, The Brahan Seer said: If you buy 1 cell you have a 1 in 10 million chance of it being faulty. If you buy a second cell it has a 1 in 10 million chance of being faulty. If you buy a third cell it has a 1 in 10 million chance of being faulty. But as you buy more the odds of you buying a dodgy cell increases by number bought against 10 million. So what if you’d buy all 10 million cells? What are the chances that any of them is dodgy? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Brahan Seer Posted May 29, 2023 Author Share Posted May 29, 2023 1 minute ago, mrelwood said: So what if you’d buy all 10 million cells? What are the chances that any of them is dodgy? So the odds are 1 cell in 10 million are faulty so the odds are if you purchased 10 million of them one would be faulty Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrelwood Posted May 29, 2023 Share Posted May 29, 2023 Just now, The Brahan Seer said: So the odds are 1 cell in 10 million are faulty so the odds are if you purchased 10 million of them one would be faulty I’m having a hard time understanding the above. Do you mean that the odds are that one of them is faulty…? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Brahan Seer Posted May 29, 2023 Author Share Posted May 29, 2023 1 minute ago, mrelwood said: Do you mean that the odds are that one of them is faulty…? Yes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrelwood Posted May 29, 2023 Share Posted May 29, 2023 Just now, The Brahan Seer said: Yes I meant what are the odds in a numeric form? 10 minutes ago, The Brahan Seer said: But as you buy more the odds of you buying a dodgy cell increases by number bought against 10 million. Sorry I forgot to comment to this one. That’s exactly what we’ve been saying! Number bought: 144. So the chances are 144 in 10 million. I guess you have trouble converting that to 1 in 69144. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Brahan Seer Posted May 29, 2023 Author Share Posted May 29, 2023 11 minutes ago, mrelwood said: They are the same thing. Why wouldn’t they be? Because the odds of winning the lottery ticket is 1 in a million , not 1 in 500,000. The combination of numbers and powerballs etc against your numbers is still 1 in a million. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrelwood Posted May 29, 2023 Share Posted May 29, 2023 Just now, The Brahan Seer said: Because the odds of winning the lottery ticket is 1 in a million , not 1 in 500,000. The combination of numbers and powerballs etc against your numbers is still 1 in a million. You bought two tickets. Your chances of winning are doubled. Don’t you agree? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Brahan Seer Posted May 29, 2023 Author Share Posted May 29, 2023 Just now, mrelwood said: I guess you have trouble converting that to 1 in 69144. You can't convert it. The odds can't change just the chances of it coming up. Just now, mrelwood said: Your chances of winning are doubled. Don’t you agree? Yes its 2 in a million against 1 in a million. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrelwood Posted May 29, 2023 Share Posted May 29, 2023 Just now, The Brahan Seer said: You can't convert it. The odds can't change just the chances of it coming up. Check the Wikipedia article I linked to earlier. Odds are a ratio. 2:4 ratio is the same as 1:2. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Brahan Seer Posted May 29, 2023 Author Share Posted May 29, 2023 When you have something saying 1 in 10 million fail you cannot change this no matter how many you buy or get. Its a fixed number. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrelwood Posted May 29, 2023 Share Posted May 29, 2023 Just now, The Brahan Seer said: When you have something saying 1 in 10 million fail you cannot change this no matter how many you buy or get. Its a fixed number. Can you give me a link where this rule is explained? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Brahan Seer Posted May 29, 2023 Author Share Posted May 29, 2023 Just now, mrelwood said: Can you give me a link where this rule is explained? You don't need one. If a company says the odds of their cells failing is 1 in 10 million then thats it. They did research that showed out of 10 million only 1 failed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrelwood Posted May 29, 2023 Share Posted May 29, 2023 I found an article titled: ”One in 10 people in UK affected by autoimmune disorders ” https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/experts-university-college-london-university-of-oxford-university-of-glasgow-b2333580.html What do you think that means? That they only tested 10 people? That there are only 10 persons in the UK? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Brahan Seer Posted May 29, 2023 Author Share Posted May 29, 2023 Its like when you buy a lottery ticket it has fixed odds which they need to tell you about it doesn't change Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Brahan Seer Posted May 29, 2023 Author Share Posted May 29, 2023 4 minutes ago, mrelwood said: What do you think that means? That they only tested 10 people? That there are only 10 persons in the UK? I think this means you are getting frustrated so I will let you go. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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