Wuhan Coronavirus - are you prepared?

[mike_bike_kite]

1 hour ago, Rehab1 said:

That hit me hard as I cannot see anything wrong except for a few little plaster speckles. 

I live with 2 hypochondriacs and this virus thingy is like heaven and hell all combined for them. I suspect that most folk aren't very good at handling the continuous stress of listening to the news and death tolls. They'll lash out at anything real or unreal as a response. I wouldn't take it to heart but instead just make sure you have a few spare thermometers about and make sure everyone is well rehearsed over the new virus procedures  

[Rehab1]

This story is scary and I own 3 DJI drones. 
https://www.nationalreview.com/news/chinese-company-suspected-of-spying-on-u-s-citizens-donates-police-drones-to-22-states/

 

[Rehab1]

On 5/3/2020 at 11:09 AM, mike_bike_kite said:

I wouldn't take it to heart but instead just make sure you have a few spare thermometers about and make sure everyone is well rehearsed over the new virus procedures  

Yes I did purchase another digital thermometer and added more signage to the inside and outside of the building. Also each exam room door now has a disinfectant check list along with the date and time of the cleaning. At last count I’ve installed 25 Covid related signs.

My biggest concern is the orthopedist that initially sent over the patient. He has yet to respond to my text or phone call apologizing for the incident.

[atdlzpae]

Wendy's menu runs short as virus hits U.S. beef supplies
Several retailers including Kroger Co (KR.N) and Costco Wholesale Corp Cost.O have also limited meat purchases per customers.

Cows are fine. Ranchers would like to sell them. People would like to buy them. But the middle-man (slaughterhouses?) have problems.
I really think we're just at the beginning. Not of a pandemic (Corona is way less deadly than I thought), but of an economic crisis.

Don't waste your money, unless you have way too much of it!

Edited May 5, 2020 by atdlzpae

[Gasmantle]

2 hours ago, atdlzpae said:

I really think we're just at the beginning. Not of a pandemic (Corona is way less deadly than I thought), but of an economic crisis.

My belief is this is the start of the big economic collapse, I think capitalism has been teetering on collapse for years. I'm not going to say that this current pandemic will bring about the total collapse but I'd argue it is one nail in the coffin of the present economic model and that subsequent crises around the corner will finish the job off.

As far as I'm concerned the sooner the big collapse happens the better, we won't breed a fairer society while we continue in this mindless ratrace.

[travsformation]

13 hours ago, atdlzpae said:

Wendy's menu runs short as virus hits U.S. beef supplies
Several retailers including Kroger Co (KR.N) and Costco Wholesale Corp Cost.O have also limited meat purchases per customers.

Cows are fine. Ranchers would like to sell them. People would like to buy them. But the middle-man (slaughterhouses?) have problems.
I really think we're just at the beginning. Not of a pandemic (Corona is way less deadly than I thought), but of an economic crisis.

Don't waste your money, unless you have way too much of it!

Yeah, forecasts say this is going to get ugly....

[mike_bike_kite]

14 hours ago, atdlzpae said:

But the middle-man (slaughterhouses?) have problems.

There's an article on this in the Economist this week.

PS (not sure whether the link is a public link or not).

[LanghamP]

On 5/5/2020 at 8:53 PM, Gasmantle said:

My belief is this is the start of the big economic collapse, I think capitalism has been teetering on collapse for years. I'm not going to say that this current pandemic will bring about the total collapse but I'd argue it is one nail in the coffin of the present economic model and that subsequent crises around the corner will finish the job off.

As far as I'm concerned the sooner the big collapse happens the better, we won't breed a fairer society while we continue in this mindless ratrace.

I think we're transitioning to a very Socialist society, where people get basic necessities. You quickly realize why government leaders lean Socialist; millions of people and businesses losing their livelihood makes a dangerous populace.

 

[Gasmantle]

30 minutes ago, LanghamP said:

I think we're transitioning to a very Socialist society, where people get basic necessities. You quickly realize why government leaders lean Socialist; millions of people and businesses losing their livelihood makes a dangerous populace.

 

I'm unclear as to where the idea that Socialism just gives people the bare necessities comes from?

My guess would be there are currently far less Socialist leaders in government than capitalist ones.

[LanghamP]

14 minutes ago, Gasmantle said:

I'm unclear as to where the idea that Socialism just gives people the bare necessities comes from?

My guess would be there are currently far less Socialist leaders in government than capitalist ones.

Most of us live in Liberal Democracies, with elected officials and public servants that we expect to provide basic services such as transportation, defense, currency, medical care, law enforcement, and so on. Even if such services aren't provided, voters quickly vote into office officials who will provide such services.

[AngryJackPCB]

On 2/16/2020 at 12:50 PM, atdlzpae said:

What?
Wuhan Coronavirus is a new pathogen that's slowly sweeping the globe.
It's estimated to be 2-3 times more infectious than flu.
It spreads through air. You can get infected via lung and eye contact with water droplets.
It's already spread to most western and asian countries, with a few countries (Japan, Singapore and Hong Kong) already experiencing explosive growth.
It shows no signs of stopping, even with all their precautions (travel ban, quarantines, temperature checks everywhere, street and building desinfections, people don't go to work or school, limits on shopping, ...).
WHO says the vaccine "could" be ready in 18 months.  So we need to survive it with traditional methods.
Still skeptical? On 16.01 there were 45 reported cases in China, now there are 68,000.
Coronavirus is not an Avian Flu or SARS. It's not gonna just die like them. It's very likely it's gonna reach the rate of Spanish Flu, which infected 500 million people 100 years ago.

Why?
It's way more deadly than flu - around 2% death rate, compared to flu's 0.1%. Around 10-20% of cases is so bad they require hospitalization.
The worst part, it can be latent for up to 28 days. And it seems to be infectious before any symptoms emerge.
Even if you live in a town of 10,000 people you're not safe. Spanish Flu infected even some remote islands in Pacific and isolated towns in Alaska.

How?
It's not time to panic, but it's time to prepare.
When the virus is active, you'll want to limit your grocery shopping as low as you can.

• Buy masks. Keywords: N95/FFP2 or (better) FFP3. You just need a few of them. You'll need them when you go out to buy necessities. There are shortages in some parts of the world and I think they will only get worse. Don't buy chirurgical masks, they don't protect against aerosols. If you buy a mask, make sure it's tight. It won't filter particles if all the air comes through gaps.
• Buy goggles! There is evidence the virus can infect through eyes. Tight fitting ones would probably be the best.
• Withdraw some money from the ATM. I don't expect many outages of the internet, banking system or the power grid, but it can happen. Better be prepared. It doesn't cost you anything.
• Stock up on food! Just fill the freezer with meat and stock up on non-perishables (like vegetables and rice). It doesn't cost you anything (you'll end up eating it anyway in the coming months), but it makes you prepared in case there are shortages.
• Prepare for power outages. I don't expect there to be many outages, but they can happen. Just make sure you can survive 24h/48h without power. If your EUC has a USB port, make sure you have the wire to charge your phone from it. If you have a car, make sure you have car chargers for your phone and laptop. If you have a generator, make sure it's filled up.
• Water - stock up on water. Just have enough to drink for a week in case outages happen. A few 5 gallon jugs should be enough.
• Stock up on medication if you need it. For example buy a month supply of insulin if you need it.
• Stock up on other essentials - soap, washing powder, dish soap, toilet paper, toothpaste, disinfectant... You'll end up using it all anyway.
• Buy a pack of single use gloves for when you go outside.
• Fix your health! Sleep 8h per day, stop eating junk foods. Now it's more important than ever.
• Fill your car's gas tank. You never know when it may come in handy.

After the virus comes to your town:

• "Human coronaviruses can remain active on surfaces such as metal, glass, or plastic for up to 9 days after exposure. The best way to deal with that problem is by cleaning those surfaces with a solution that’s 62% to 72% ethanol, .5% hydrogen peroxide, or 0.1% sodium hypochlorite"
• Limit human contact as much as posible. Don't shake people's hands. Or if you have to, disinfect them after every contact.
• Learn to clean hands throughly.
• Get into the habit of not touching mouth and eyes with your hands unless necessary.
• Devise a contaminated "area" near the door. Keep all shoes and jackets there.
• Wear gloves, masks and goggles when outside. Dispose of gloves after single use, keep masks and goggles near the door area, as they'll probably be contaminated.
• Don't share food with others without disinfecting it. The virus probably also spreads with saliva.

So don't panic, but start preparing. 2020 is gonna be hard. Prepare and make it as easy as possible.

Handy map of current virus spread

So the world didn't come to an end, less then .02 % of people died (and that's a generous estimate), are you still hiding your heads in the sand for this overblown, fake disaster?

[mrelwood]

1 hour ago, AngryJackPCB said:

So the world didn't come to an end, less then .02 % of people died (and that's a generous estimate), are you still hiding your heads in the sand for this overblown, fake disaster?

Aggressively cautious? Yes. Insufficiently informed? Yes. Overblown by media? Everything always is. Overblown by governments? As in too slow to react to actual data and science, lately yes. Fake? No.

[mike_bike_kite]

4 hours ago, AngryJackPCB said:

So the world didn't come to an end, less then .02 % of people died (and that's a generous estimate), are you still hiding your heads in the sand for this overblown, fake disaster?

It did come to an end for the 80,000 that have so far died in America and I'm guessing it wasn't too pleasant for their families either. A fake disaster? I'll quietly point out you only lost 3000 in the 9/11 attack.

[atdlzpae]

8 hours ago, AngryJackPCB said:

So the world didn't come to an end, less then .02 % of people died (and that's a generous estimate), are you still hiding your heads in the sand for this overblown, fake disaster?

Please, look at my words through the prism of available data at that time:
- A hard quarantine at Wuhan
- Lies about the infection and death rate from China
- Coverup and arrests for "spreading rumors" in China
- South Korea, Diamond Princess and Iran were just starting
- We had no idea about the long-term effects on this virus - there were almost no recovered cases outside China
- There was no effective treatment back then
- WHO was acting completely drunk

Wasn't my post rational at the time? It's easy to say "you were wrong" in hindsight, but looking at how it evolved I'd say it was mostly correct.
- Iran, Italy and Spain were hit really hard
- I think that having a month of supplies in those places was a completely correct decision
- There were places with a hard quarantine
- Long queues to shops for a few days/weeks happened almost everywhere
- Fat, immunocompromised and old people are still at a huge risk

If you think this is over, you're mistaken:
- US unemployment 30 million
- FED is printing $2 trillion per week
- Meat supply chains are breaking, shortages will probably follow
- Government is giving out $1200 per week in unemployment benefits - more than lots of people earned before
- Companies are moving out of China
- Global economy will experience a crisis for the next few years

Also, a few additional points:
- It's not only about how much people this disease kills, but how severe it is. And it's way more severe than a flu
- "Mild cases" usually people suffer for month or so before they recover
- Boris Johnson was in hospital on oxygen treatment. And he wasn't in bad health
- A high (> 10%) percentage of people have lasting (maybe even permanent) damage

Where did you get 0.02%? Even when I try to get to the lowest death rate possible:

Quote

19.45mil * 21% = 4mil infected
26612 dead / 4084500 infected = 0.65%

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/05/why-unreliable-tests-are-flooding-the-coronavirus-conversation-cvd/ - source for 21% antibody positive in New York
https://kungflu.net/ - 26612 dead in New York State according to Johns Hopkins University.
https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page - 14,482 confirmed dead according to nyc.gov

I get 0.65% death rate, which is about 6 times as much as flu. Even with just confirmed deaths it's 0.35%.

#######################

Edit: I think I understand. I think that you're quoting current US death toll: 0.0238% of total population
What can I say? The distancing methods and masks are working. Current efforts have halted the disease enough for hospitals not to be overwhelmed, which would have resulted in a higher death rate.
Also, keep in mind that Corona deaths are most likely under-reported.

Edited May 10, 2020 by atdlzpae

[Nic]

This Covid19 thing is bringing real innovation ... just look at the wonderful solution we have ... check out this Indiegogo for BioVYZR at £138 GBP with 392 backers.

So who bought this then?

https://www.indiegogo.com/projects/biovyzr-venture-out-breathe-easy/x/23384975?utm_content=campaigns_one_column2_hero_image&utm_source=sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=bck-05102020sunday&gs_variant=control#/

 

[Grumly]

2 hours ago, Nic said:

https://www.indiegogo.com/projects/biovyzr-venture-out-breathe-easy/x/23384975?utm_content=campaigns_one_column2_hero_image&utm_source=sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=bck-05102020sunday&gs_variant=control#/

Great ! What the world really needs now is a combination between this and helmfon to work in openspaces AND sanitize your air.

(the banging head against wall smiley is really missing right now :-) )

That would be the ultimate social distancing tool. You can fart in the office, not even hearing the noise, not getting the scent, not even catching the disapproving glances around. Anyway, there will be none of the latter. Nobody heard or smelt, and they're all doing the same.

Just imagining an emergency evacuation with everybody fitted with these helmets, bouncing on each other while evacuating... no, it won't happen either. If some of the alarm ring did get through their helmets, ANC headphones will take care of it.

[mrelwood]

16 hours ago, atdlzpae said:

keep in mind that Corona deaths are most likely under-reported.

Based on doctor Ericsson (in the video that YouTube censored, linked to earlier in this thread), the opposite is true. They were encouraged to write down Corona as the reason if death if the patient died from an underlying condition that Corona made worse.

Be however it may, it can be concluded that none of the stats should be looked at very precisely. That makes the death toll seem close enough to the flu to be comparable.

 But if we look at the picture as a whole, how do we count the stats that show a clear increase because of the Corona quarantine? Suicide rates, other serious illnesses untreated because of Corona, etc. Probably also increased drug overdoses, domestic quarrels gone way bad, etc. Are these not deaths caused (indirectly) by Corona?

[LanghamP]

9 minutes ago, mrelwood said:

But if we look at the picture as a whole, how do we count the stats that show a clear increase because of the Corona quarantine? Suicide rates, other serious illnesses untreated because of Corona, etc. Probably also increased drug overdoses, domestic quarrels gone way bad, etc. Are these not deaths caused (indirectly) by Corona?

Depends on where you are. Some cities show a clear reduction in deaths due to less economic activity (ie driving somewhere to buy ice cream) while others show increases, and ultimately we can gauge the physical health of a society by looking at the numbers of hospital consumers (and more grimly funeral homes/death certificates).

 

[atdlzpae]

2 hours ago, mrelwood said:

Based on doctor Ericsson (in the video that YouTube censored, linked to earlier in this thread), the opposite is true. They were encouraged to write down Corona as the reason if death if the patient died from an underlying condition that Corona made worse.

That's definitely a possibility. The problem is with the data, there are no statistics if Corona was the primary, or secondary illness.
I'm know that Poland SEVERELY under-reports and I think that the world overall also tends towards under-reporting. But neither side has any data on under or over-reporting... So... 0.35% it is for now.

2 hours ago, mrelwood said:

But if we look at the picture as a whole, how do we count the stats that show a clear increase because of the Corona quarantine? Suicide rates, other serious illnesses untreated because of Corona, etc. Probably also increased drug overdoses, domestic quarrels gone way bad, etc. Are these not deaths caused (indirectly) by Corona?

- Untreated serious illnesses - these deaths are IMO mostly caused by mass media that fuel the panic.
- Suicide - I'd wager it's 50% corona and 50% government policy that destroyed the economy. Soon to be 99% government policy when we enter the crisis phase.
- Drug overdoses - Why should it increase during the pandemic?

[mrelwood]

 

5 hours ago, LanghamP said:

we can gauge the physical health of a society by looking at the numbers of hospital consumers

Generally that’s one way of looking at it, but a large part of hospitalized people were sent home to make room for Corona patients. And a lot of people have cancelled their important checkups because they are afraid to go to a hospital and catch Corona along the visit.

2 hours ago, atdlzpae said:

there are no statistics if Corona was the primary, or secondary illness.

While some data may be reported accurately to the public, the way the data is gathered doesn’t look convincingly trustworthy to me. There doesn’t seem to be uniform practices in place sometimes even within a single country. How can we say anything based on data like that?

I guess the closest we can get to the true death toll is to compare absolutely all deaths for the last few months to the expected yearly average. I wonder if such figures are available.

2 hours ago, atdlzpae said:

- Drug overdoses - Why should it increase during the pandemic?

I see increased drug use as just one probable outcome from people being frustrated, scared, lonely, and having a lot of extra time in their hands. Increased drug use sounds likely to cause more drug related issues as well. I don’t have any data or even other people’s theories to back it up, just a possibility.

[atdlzpae]

3 hours ago, mrelwood said:

I see increased drug use as just one probable outcome from people being frustrated, scared, lonely, and having a lot of extra time in their hands. Increased drug use sounds likely to cause more drug related issues as well. I don’t have any data or even other people’s theories to back it up, just a possibility.

The inverse is also possible - the economy tanked, and so people have less money for vanity like drugs.
But it's as you say - we have no data one way or the other.

[LanghamP]

I was talking to an accountant and two general practioners a few days ago, all from medium-large businesses. They reckoned about 80% of the funds for business were captured by the end of the first day (as in "the money is in our bank account"), and that the bigger businesses (including just a about all universities) captured almost all the dollars because they had an accounting department that could write and submit the business rules beforehand. At least 80%. Probably more.

If 2008 is a good predictor of future behavior, I'd guess we'll see approximately 97% of those funds used in buybacks for stocks as stockholders cash out on this bonanza. I did read of one business owner cashing out 1.2 million of relief funds for various personal goods but that's not illegal! It's similar to the office pool buying lottery tickets, and then using the perfectly valid excuse that the winning lottery ticket was bought "one extra with personal funds".

[.....]

On 5/11/2020 at 9:56 AM, atdlzpae said:

The inverse is also possible - the economy tanked, and so people have less money for vanity like drugs.
But it's as you say - we have no data one way or the other.

Drugs and alcohol always do okay during a crisis. You would think that MAYBE people would worry about finances and NOT spend as much on these things. The reverse is true. Then when you give every moron in the country money (even those that dont want it and still are working), they dont view it as money to help their financial crisis. They view it as FREE money and spend it on bullshit entertainment(church soup kitchen got ours, i wont profit from such treachery). How many euc's were preordered during this economic disaster, by people who dont even have 3 mos living expenses in savings? Seriously, coffee, alcohol, tobacco and drugs are markets that are thriving right now. You wont find stats to rely on about the black market, but I know people that are doing VERY well atm in those markets. The same people and markets that were not doing so well 6-8 months ago, are raking it in right now.The local govt owned liquor stores are ROLLING in cash right now! I can't and won't prove I know anything about this, consider it merely idiotic speculation if you must . Fwiw, my house has seen ZERO changes, aside from the bullshit welfare we got sent without asking. Its like a mafia thug forcing me to take a loan, but not disclosing what the interest is going to cost me and when. I still don't even own a damn mask, so you better stay home because I'm not. Yes, I'm prepared... for phase 2 to be a success, as the 1st phase showed amazing success already. Tags my ass, get ready for nano-ink that is easily implanted thru vaccine, while dna is also being recorded for future leverage and control. Fear=control. Offer the illusion of safety and people blindly sign up to forgo the freedoms that others died to provide, in the past.

Edited May 20, 2020 by ShanesPlanet

[LanghamP]

27 minutes ago, ShanesPlanet said:

Drugs and alcohol always do okay during a crisis. You would think that MAYBE people would worry about finances and NOT spend as much on these things. The reverse is true. Then when you give every moron in the country money (even those that dont want it and still are working), they dont view it as money to help their financial crisis. They view it as FREE money and spend it on bullshit entertainment

Alcohol spending is up a fair bit according to Nielsen surveys, but industrial figures suggest alcohol consumption is up a tremendous amount (I'd guess 28% and 60% respectively), the difference due to the very high markup at bars and restaurants versus grocery stores.

People are drinking too much, but on the other hand people are carefully cooking at home, with healthy and nutritious meals.

As for spending money, economic activity has fallen off a cliff, but just like in 2008 (and every single recession dating back to the 1840's), Americans are saving much more money than before (an average of $204 per household) while tremendously cutting their expenses.

I was also very surprised to hear all my local hospitals hit maximum capacity the day before yesterday while being entirely out of respirators. That suggests lifting the quarantine was done too early. Ignoring people tested for Coronavirus and just looking at total deaths per day, the line is steep. It's really really steep. I mean, it's on track to kill something like 2.5 million people in a few months just in the US alone, minimum of 200,000 right now. Still, better than the 15 million assuming the 5% death rate holds (Italy is around 10%, by the way).

[travsformation]

On 5/10/2020 at 9:49 PM, Nic said:

So who bought this then?

The people who couldn't be bothered to make their own 

 

Edited May 20, 2020 by travsformation