Wuhan Coronavirus - are you prepared?

[travsformation]

11 hours ago, Toshio Uemura said:

but it might be propaganda. What do you guys think?

First 30 seconds: "This is just the nature of Chinese communism. Chinese communism is evil. Every person [SARS-CoV-2] harms is directly attributable to the Chinese Communist Party" 

Am not discarding any of the information prior to watching it---I try to keep an open mind and like to listen to all sides---but the intro has enough political bias to suggest that neutrality and objectivity might be...compromised? (a bit of an understatement). AFAIK, there's no medical consensus to date on the origin of the virus, so I'm curious to find out what data they base their conclusions on and how they reached them 

Also worth noting:

"In the new documentary presented by The Epoch Times and NTD, Epoch Times investigative reporter Joshua Philipp takes an in-depth look at the progression of the pandemic from January to April and leads us on a journey of discovery to bring the truth behind the matter to light."

From Wikipedia:

The Epoch Times is a multi-language newspaper founded in 2000 by John Tang and a group of Chinese Americans associated with the Falun Gong spiritual movement. Though the newspaper is known for general interest topics with a focus on news about China and its human rights issues, it has become known for its support of U.S. President Donald Trump and favorable coverage of far-right politicians in Europe; a 2019 report showed it to be the second-largest funder of pro-Trump Facebook advertising after the Trump campaign. The newspaper is part of the Epoch Media Group, which also operates New Tang Dynasty Television (NTD). The group's news sites and YouTube channels have spread conspiracy theories such as QAnon and anti-vaccination propaganda.

(Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Epoch_Times)

So, there's a slight chance it just might be propaganda...  

Edited April 9, 2020 by travsformation

[Rehab1]

What are the chances that the father of my last patient was a top executive at the bank where I applied for my Employee Payroll Protection Plan. 

While I was treating his daughter he was texting on his phone.This happens all of time with parents so I never gave it a second thought. 

He then enlightened me that he had been checking on the status of my loan and that all of my documentation was in order and I should have funding next week. Amazing! 

[LanghamP]

8 hours ago, travsformation said:

the Falun Gong spiritual movement.

Thoughtcrime is considered sufficiently severe enough to warrant the death penalty in China, and each year the Falun Gong are often the biggest contributers of China's organ donor program. It's hard to fathom the absolute hatred and disgust your ordinary Chinese person has towards the Falun Gong until you have a Chinese friends; even my Muslim friends hem and haw, then look embarrassed when talking about the less savory aspects of Muhammad (12 year old child bride, sign me up!!), but, godamn are Chinese murderous towards the Falun Gong.

[Rehab1]

I just received word that the Paycheck Protection Program loan was approved by my bank. Onto the SBA for final approval.

 

[travsformation]

14 hours ago, Rehab1 said:

What are the chances that the father of my last patient was a top executive at the bank where I applied for my Employee Payroll Protection Plan. 

While I was treating his daughter he was texting on his phone.This happens all of time with parents so I never gave it a second thought. 

He then enlightened me that he had been checking on the status of my loan and that all of my documentation was in order and I should have funding next week. Amazing! 

Wow that's great news! Talk about serendipity! Very happy to hear that! 

[travsformation]

11 hours ago, Rehab1 said:

I just received word that the Paycheck Protection Program loan was approved by my bank. Onto the SBA for final approval.

Great! 

I was about to take the lazy route and ask you what the PPP involves, then decided to Google it. According to the SBA's website:

"SBA will forgive loans if all employees are kept on the payroll for eight weeks and the money is used for payroll, rent, mortgage interest, or utilities."

So I guess the question is: is the loan enough to cover 8 weeks worth of your employees' paychecks? And if now, what percentage would it cover? I'm curious to compare it with Spanish and other European plans (not including Scandinavia, @Unventor, you guys don't know how good you have it!) 

[Rehab1]

46 minutes ago, travsformation said:

So I guess the question is: is the loan enough to cover 8 weeks worth of your employees' paychecks? And if now, what percentage would it cover? I'm curious to compare it with Spanish and other European plans (not including Scandinavia, @Unventor, you guys don't know how good you have it!) 

Actually the PPP is 10 weeks of protection. The formula breaks down to 2 1/2 times the monthly salaries. I could have added monthly rent and utilities to the equation but elected not to go that route.  I felt the deferred  funding would better serve another company in need.

Edited April 10, 2020 by Rehab1

[travsformation]

32 minutes ago, Rehab1 said:

Actually the PPP is 10 weeks of protection. The formula breaks down to 2 1/2 times the monthly salaries.

So your employees' wages are ensured for 2 1/2 months, and unless you fire anyone, you don't have to repay the loan? Not bad.

A fairly socialist move from the Trump administration, I must say... 

35 minutes ago, Rehab1 said:

I could have added monthly rent and utilities to the equation but elected not to go that route.  I felt the deferred  funding would better serve another company in need.

I tip my hat! Too bad there aren't more people who think like you...

I remember back when I was living in France and our combined income (my girlfriend and I) was 10X our monthly rent, and about 4-5X our monthly expenses; yet we were still eligible for a government rent subsidy program because I'd been previously unemployed + had only recently started my own business (which is incentivized there, unlike in Spain). My friends kept telling me how stupid we were for not applying (the government would have paid 50% of our rent), and when I'd argue that it was against my principles to apply for something I didn't need, since the whole purpose of government aid is to help those who really need it, I was told that I was naive. Apparently almost everyone who's eligible takes advantage of it, whether they need it or not, so my noble position served no purpose--they kept reminding me--, as if I don't take advantage of the system, someone/everyone else would. 

But as far as I'm concerned, I'm one fewer person gaming the system, and my conscience is my business to live with. So, naive I shall remain, I can live with that 

[Rehab1]

33 minutes ago, travsformation said:

But as far as I'm concerned, I'm one fewer person gaming the system, and my conscience is my business to live with. So, naive I shall remain, I can live with that 

 

[LanghamP]

4 hours ago, Rehab1 said:

Actually the PPP is 10 weeks of protection. The formula breaks down to 2 1/2 times the monthly salaries. I could have added monthly rent and utilities to the equation but elected not to go that route.  I felt the deferred  funding would better serve another company in need.

Much, if not most of the loans went to stock buybacks in 2008. That is, government loans were used to buy stocks, and then shareholders dumped stocks. This is why so many companies went bust 6 months to a year later when the loans came due.

This is why the 2020 bill originally specified no stock buybacks, but that stipulation was removed, and then we proceeded to see the biggest stock market rally as government loans were used to buy back stock even while laying off tremendous numbers of employees.

[Rehab1]

10 minutes ago, LanghamP said:

This is why the 2020 bill originally specified no stock buybacks, but that stipulation was removed, and then we proceeded to see the biggest stock market rally as government loans were used to buy back stock even while laying off tremendous numbers of employees.

I hope that does not happen!

[Kens]

Here's a slide from LA County modeling presentation today:

Social distancing is working people! Thank you for everyone in LA County that did their part and best wishes for other states. We are not on the peek yet but we will get through this! 

[Patton250]

1 hour ago, Kens said:

Here's a slide from LA County modeling presentation today:

Social distancing is working people! Thank you for everyone in LA County that did their part and best wishes for other states. We are not on the peek yet but we will get through this! 

Awesome. If you say so. Let’s open the country back up now. Like right now. The models were so wrong I hope someone goes to prison or writea a very big check to the the world economy. 

[Rehab1]

57 minutes ago, Kens said:

Social distancing is working people! Thank you for everyone in LA County that did their part and best wishes for other states. We are not on the peek yet but we will get through this! 

Congratulations! I wish more people in my neck of woods were as compliant.

Detroit is becoming the next major Covid hot spot in the US which is only 50 miles north of my residence. Statistics behind the rise of Covid cases in the region point to the large number of multigenerational families located within the condensed inner city that are not complying with the social distancing efforts.

Tomorrow night Michigan’s governor will attempt to curb this rising tide by tightening the laws even further. This will include a mandate that neighbors cannot visit other neighbors within their homes or travel to a 2nd home or vacation dwelling within the state. 

Counties near Detroit are beginning to see an uptick in Covid cases and the next wave of infections could very easily be Toledo where I practice. Area hospitals are already preparing.

My wife is an OBGYN nurse at a Toledo hospital  and received word today that mandatory layoffs in her department begin next week extending through June. Most OBGYN patient consultations are now being conducted via a telemedicine.network so additional staff will not be needed.

July cannot come soon enough. 

 

[atdlzpae]

6 hours ago, Patton250 said:

Awesome. If you say so. Let’s open the country back up now. Like right now. The models were so wrong I hope someone goes to prison or writea a very big check to the the world economy. 

Please do not forget two major examples of what happens if you keep the country open:
- Multiple Iranian government ministers and senior officials have been diagnosed SARS-CoV-2 positive, as well as 23 members of the Iranian Parliament (around 8% of all MPs). At least 12 sitting or former Iranian politicians and officials had died from the virus by 17 March 2020. Notable individuals reported to have died from COVID-19 include Hadi Khosroshahi, Mohammad Mirmohammadi, Hossein Sheikholeslam, Fatemeh Rahbar, Reza Mohammadi Langroudi, Mohammad-Reza Rahchamani, Nasser Shabani, Hashem Bathaie Golpayegani, and Hamid Kahram.
- 970 deaths in one day in UK and still rising. Also, prime minister is sick.

I'm all for keeping the restaurants and schools closed. And all workers that don't have to be at work, shouldn't be.

But honestly, what some countries are doing right now... <faceplant>
Dad arrested in front of 6-year-old for social distancing violation

It seems that a disease automatically makes constitution invalid and allows politicians to make the country totalitarian.

##################################################################################################

Even if Corona disappears tomorrow, the economy is !@#$%^. Next months, maybe even years will be brutal. Look at this beautiful list: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_external_debt
Most countries have an external debt of > 50% of GDP. And some have > 100%!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consumer_debt
Look at that! Total US consumer debt in 1960 - 71% of GDP. 2016 - 192.7%.

This will be better than 1970's crisis. This should be comparable to the Great Depression.

Will the Rome Western World fall in the next few years? I hope not, but I hope current debt-based Keynesian crony capitalism will fall.
Governments should NOT have a printer to inflate the currency. Governments should NOT be bailing out crony business.

I hope for a gold standard or a cryptocurrency based (deflationary) USD. That would be perfect.
Probably won't happen though and we'll have a next crisis in 2050.

Edited April 11, 2020 by atdlzpae

[travsformation]

7 hours ago, Kens said:

Social distancing is working people! Thank you for everyone in LA County that did their part and best wishes for other states. We are not on the peek yet but we will get through this! 

Great news! Now it's just a matter of keeping it up and resisting the urge to go outdoors despite the spring weather...

[travsformation]

7 hours ago, Patton250 said:

Awesome. If you say so. Let’s open the country back up now. Like right now. The models were so wrong I hope someone goes to prison or writea a very big check to the the world economy. 

WHO warns of 'deadly resurgence' if coronavirus controls lifted too soon

“I know that some countries are already planning the transition out of stay-at-home restrictions. WHO wants to see restrictions lifted as much as anyone,” he told a virtual press conference in Geneva. “At the same time, lifting restrictions too quickly could lead to a deadly resurgence. The way down can be as dangerous as the way up if not managed properly.”

Italy first started to lock down certain towns on Feb. 23, and imposed the nation-wide lockdown on  March 9 (more than a month ago). According to the article above:

"Italian newspapers reported that the government was poised to extend confinement measures due to expire on 13 April to 3 May"

That's nearly 2 months worth of hard lockdown. And hard lockdown seems to be the most effective way to fight this:

 

(Source)

Edited April 11, 2020 by travsformation

[travsformation]

1 hour ago, atdlzpae said:

I'm all for keeping the restaurants and schools closed. And all workers that don't have to be at work, shouldn't be.

It seems that a disease automatically makes constitution invalid and allows politicians to make the country totalitarian.

Unfortunately, it seems that hard/mandatory lockdown is the most effective means of slowing down the curve. As can be seen in the graphs above, regardless of the country, self-isolation and social distancing aren't nearly as effective...

Here in Spain, with a strictly enforced lockdown, thousands of people were stuck in traffic jams leaving Madrid to go spend the long Easter weekend at their second residences (which is strictly forbidden):

 

2,131 people were fined, in one day, only in Madrid, for disobeying the quarantine (source), knowing they risked being fined a minimum of €600.  Imagine what would happen if self-isolation and social distancing were left to people's own judgement and sense of social responsibility... 

Disobeying travel restrictions has caused serious damage in rural and coastal communities, where city-dwellers have imported the virus and whose medical facilities aren't equipped to deal with such unprecedented numbers of sick vacationers....

1 hour ago, atdlzpae said:

But honestly, what some countries are doing right now... <faceplant>
Dad arrested in front of 6-year-old for social distancing violation

That's unfortunate, not to say ridiculous. And at the same time, I think it's (sadly) inevitable for there to be a handful of such cases. Tension is high, and police officers aren't immune. But I imagine (and hope) cases like this are more of an isolated occurrence. Here there have been a few arrests, but only in instance where people resisted authority

1 hour ago, atdlzpae said:

I hope current debt-based Keynesian crony capitalism will fall.
Governments should NOT have a printer to inflate the currency. Governments should NOT be bailing out crony business.

I'll drink to that 

I'd love to see a less savage implementation of our economic model but I fear that's just wishful thinking...

 

CEOs taking Covid-19 pay cuts 'should not be rewarded with shares'
Companies advised against paying lucrative bonuses to bosses to make up for losses

Some firms, including those receiving state support to pay “furloughed” staff, have gone ahead with controversial long-term incentive plans (LTIPs) that hand directors sizeable stock awards if they hit targets. On Thursday, insurer Prudential announced executive pay cuts “in the light of the current situation and the need for continued restraint in executive remuneration”. For chief executive Michael Wells, that meant a salary reduction of £23,000, to £1.15m. Less than four hours later, in a separate disclosure, the insurer handed Wells an LTIP worth £878,873 at current share prices.

ITV directors including chief executive Carolyn McCall volunteered to take a 20% pay cut and forfeit their 2020 bonuses. Three days later, ITV announced LTIPs and other share-based bonus payments, including some related to 2019, a year for which investors will receive no dividend. The payments, which come despite ITV putting some staff on the state-backed furlough scheme, would be worth £3.2m to McCall alone, even at current low share prices.

Edited April 11, 2020 by travsformation

[atdlzpae]

40 minutes ago, travsformation said:

Here in Spain, with a strictly enforced lockdown, thousands of people were stuck in traffic jams leaving Madrid to go spend the long Easter weekend at their second residences (which is strictly forbidden)

My family is in a similar situation. We have two houses and we travel between them every week. We meet exactly 0 people each time we travel. If I get a ticket I'm gonna fight it in court.

58 minutes ago, travsformation said:

But I imagine (and hope) cases like this are more of an isolated occurrence. Here there have been a few arrests, but only in instance where people resisted authority

In Poland I can find > 10 cases of such stupidity each day on the internet. I wonder how many go not self-reported.
These are widespread, not isolated. But arguably it's a good thing! The more people are angered now, the higher the chance that cronies on top will fall.

1 hour ago, travsformation said:

2,131 people were fined, in one day, only in Madrid, for disobeying the quarantine (source), knowing they risked being fined a minimum of €600.  Imagine what would happen if self-isolation and social distancing were left to people's own judgement and sense of social responsibility... 

Ammon Bundy plans to hold a cermon on Easter. One one hand it's stupid. On the other hand, US constitution still provides freedom to travel, associate and worship, no matter what other laws say.
Thus, I'm conflicted. I wouldn't attend it, but I fully support them doing it in defiance.

[Patton250]

Lol. Ok guys. I’m reading all the little quotes and scientific so called facts you guys just posted on many other forms. You guys are forgetting to mention that 99% of it all turned out to be total BS. They were wrong. They weren’t just wrong they were really really really really really really really really really wrong. Now most of the time in life being wrong isn’t so bad. Heck I’m wrong all the time my wife tells me. However in this case these genius doctors that half the United States and the world seem to worship have shut the entire world economy down except for a handful of very smart countries. But mostly I’m specifically talking about the United States. Now those of my fellow citizens that want to stay huddled in their home wearing cloth over their face for the next year have have at it. To be honest with you I have absolutely no problem with that. If you want to buy into all those charts you posted above I give you my word I think nothing less of you. However what I do have a problem with is when you support a handful of unelected doctors that say millions and millions and millions of my countrymen have to lose their jobs permanently and millions and millions of millions of my fellow business owners have to lose their businesses permanently. Then I have a massive  problem.

 

SO here’s the deal. They scared the crap out of us and made us think it was Armageddon. We all played along including myself and my family. It turned out they were wrong. As I stated before really really really really really wrong. This will be no worse than last year‘s flu. No hard feelings better safe than sorry. No big deal. Open the country back up. Try to save as many jobs as possible. Investigate the people who got it wrong and prosecute prosecute them. Those of you who are still scared and want to stay home then do so. I’m going to recommend to my retired mother who has COPD and is 76 to stay home. However if you support politicians that are going to force me at gunpoint to stay home then we have a problem and I can assure you massive civil unrest is coming in the next month or so. The amount of damage done to our economy is already so massive it is incalculable. Another month of being shut down past May 1 will put us into a depression that will last years. It’s so serious now it’s really got me believing this is being done on purpose at this point. 

[Patton250]

2 hours ago, travsformation said:

WHO warns of 'deadly resurgence' if coronavirus controls lifted too soon

“I know that some countries are already planning the transition out of stay-at-home restrictions. WHO wants to see restrictions lifted as much as anyone,” he told a virtual press conference in Geneva. “At the same time, lifting restrictions too quickly could lead to a deadly resurgence. The way down can be as dangerous as the way up if not managed properly.”

Italy first started to lock down certain towns on Feb. 23, and imposed the nation-wide lockdown on  March 9 (more than a month ago). According to the article above:

"Italian newspapers reported that the government was poised to extend confinement measures due to expire on 13 April to 3 May"

That's nearly 2 months worth of hard lockdown. And hard lockdown seems to be the most effective way to fight this:

 

(Source)

The WHO??? oh I know who you mean. You mean those same guys that said this virus wasn’t going to be a big deal at all and it couldn’t be transferred from person to person sometime around January 15? That same WHO???  You mean the same WHO who said everything was great in China? Those guys? You mean the same WHO who said we would have 2.3 million dead people in the United States? Are those the same people you’re talking about? Seems reasonable to continue to believe all their projections especially since the only consequence is your economy completely collapsing beyond repair and a 50% unemployment rate. 

[mike_bike_kite]

4 minutes ago, Patton250 said:

Lol. Ok guys. I’m reading all the little quotes and scientific so called facts you guys just posted on many other forms. You guys are forgetting to mention that 99% of it all turned out to be total BS. They were wrong. They weren’t just wrong they were really really really really really really really really really wrong. Now most of the time in life being wrong isn’t so bad. Heck I’m wrong all the time my wife tells me.

The death toll in America now way exceeds the death toll in China (or any other country). Just in New York alone the death toll already exceeds 9/11. Sadly, because you're not universally implementing restrictions, the death toll will continue to rise higher and higher. When the number of serious cases gets higher than the number of available ventilators then every new serious case will die. I kind of agree with your wife but, rather than exposing everyone else to the virus, why don't you volunteer at a hospital?

[travsformation]

23 minutes ago, Patton250 said:

You guys are forgetting to mention that 99% of it all turned out to be total BS. They were wrong. They weren’t just wrong they were really really really really really really really really really wrong.

Could you please provide a source for this assertion? 

I'm sorry to say so, but I don't think the use of the past tense is pertinent here. In the US, unfortunately, this is only just starting... 

Source: John Hopkins Research Center

15 minutes ago, Patton250 said:

The WHO???

Who said WHO? 

The source was the Imperial College of Science, Technology and Medicine of London, it was included below the graphs.

25 minutes ago, Patton250 said:

However in this case these genius doctors that half the United States and the world seem to worship have shut the entire world economy down except for a handful of very smart countries. However what I do have a problem with is when you support a handful of unelected doctors that say millions and millions and millions of my countrymen have to lose their jobs permanently and millions and millions of millions of my fellow business owners have to lose their businesses permanently. Then I have a massive  problem.

You have a point. If we actually had a (very smart) doctor as Health Secretary instead of a lawyer/big pharma exec and lobbyist, as is the case in the U.S., or a career politician with a degree in philosophy, as in Spain, the crisis would probably be handled much better...

[Patton250]

35 minutes ago, travsformation said:

Could you please provide a source for this assertion? 

I'm sorry to say so, but I don't think the use of the past tense is pertinent here. In the US, unfortunately, this is only just starting... 

Source: John Hopkins Research Center

Who said WHO? 

The source was the Imperial College of Science, Technology and Medicine of London, it was included below the graphs.

You have a point. If we actually had a (very smart) doctor as Health Secretary instead of a lawyer/big pharma exec and lobbyist, as is the case in the U.S., or a career politician with a degree in philosophy, as in Spain, the crisis would probably be handled much better...

The Imperial College of Science was completely wrong as well. All the predictions were wrong. Excuse me that’s not accurate. They were very very very very very very very wrong. I’m not going provide any links. Watch the president do his briefing this afternoon. Dr. doom and his sidekick Dr Birx will also speak. They will tell you we are on the down slope of this now. Everyone knows now the amount of deaths in the United States won’t even exceed  last year‘s flu season. They screwed up. No big deal right? Most of us only lost 50% of our 401(k) and approximately 20,000,00 to 30,000,000 jobs in the United States so far. No biggie.
 

Listen my friend having said this I have no problem if you want to play along and stay home. All power to you. Buy a years worth of food and masks and stay home. I totally 100% support your right to stay home. What I have a problem with, at least in my country is politicians using bogus data to force me to stay home. This whole thing has now gotten way out of control. People need to be held responsible. Unfortunately that won’t happen for a couple of months or until the media finds some other thing to concentrate on and overwhelm the public with. 
 

 

Edited April 11, 2020 by Patton250

[atdlzpae]

@Patton250 From what I see around 80% of what I've said was correct. Thankfully the worst predictions didn't happen, I was expecting millions by now.

2 hours ago, Patton250 said:

Everyone knows now the amount of deaths in the United States won’t even exceed  last year‘s flu season.

Average Italian death toll from flu in years 2013-2017 was 17017 people. Korona so far killed 18849, which is a lowball - there are many deaths unaccounted. And the epidemic is far from over in Italy. There is no reason to assume the US will be any different.

2 hours ago, Patton250 said:

Most of us only lost 50% of our 401(k) and approximately 20,000,00 to 30,000,000 jobs in the United States so far. No biggie.

We haven't seen anything yet, the USD didn't start to inflate. Please, don't blame us - we're just your fellow EUC lovers.  Blame:

• The FED who think that propping up the *stock market with 2 trillion dollars a month is a good idea
• The politicians who support the bail out of corrupt corporations
• Bankers who allow anyone to easily take a loan
• Politicians who allowed the national debt to get bigger than GDP

* The stock market isn't an economy. Propping it up doesn't make bread, it just rains money to investors.