Wuhan Coronavirus - are you prepared?

[atdlzpae]

What?
Wuhan Coronavirus is a new pathogen that's slowly sweeping the globe.
It's estimated to be 2-3 times more infectious than flu.
It spreads through air. You can get infected via lung and eye contact with water droplets.
It's already spread to most western and asian countries, with a few countries (Japan, Singapore and Hong Kong) already experiencing explosive growth.
It shows no signs of stopping, even with all their precautions (travel ban, quarantines, temperature checks everywhere, street and building desinfections, people don't go to work or school, limits on shopping, ...).
WHO says the vaccine "could" be ready in 18 months.  So we need to survive it with traditional methods.
Still skeptical? On 16.01 there were 45 reported cases in China, now there are 68,000.
Coronavirus is not an Avian Flu or SARS. It's not gonna just die like them. It's very likely it's gonna reach the rate of Spanish Flu, which infected 500 million people 100 years ago.

Why?
It's way more deadly than flu - around 2% death rate, compared to flu's 0.1%. Around 10-20% of cases is so bad they require hospitalization.
The worst part, it can be latent for up to 28 days. And it seems to be infectious before any symptoms emerge.
Even if you live in a town of 10,000 people you're not safe. Spanish Flu infected even some remote islands in Pacific and isolated towns in Alaska.

How?
It's not time to panic, but it's time to prepare.
When the virus is active, you'll want to limit your grocery shopping as low as you can.

• Buy masks. Keywords: N95/FFP2 or (better) FFP3. You just need a few of them. You'll need them when you go out to buy necessities. There are shortages in some parts of the world and I think they will only get worse. Don't buy chirurgical masks, they don't protect against aerosols. If you buy a mask, make sure it's tight. It won't filter particles if all the air comes through gaps.
• Buy goggles! There is evidence the virus can infect through eyes. Tight fitting ones would probably be the best.
• Withdraw some money from the ATM. I don't expect many outages of the internet, banking system or the power grid, but it can happen. Better be prepared. It doesn't cost you anything.
• Stock up on food! Just fill the freezer with meat and stock up on non-perishables (like vegetables and rice). It doesn't cost you anything (you'll end up eating it anyway in the coming months), but it makes you prepared in case there are shortages.
• Prepare for power outages. I don't expect there to be many outages, but they can happen. Just make sure you can survive 24h/48h without power. If your EUC has a USB port, make sure you have the wire to charge your phone from it. If you have a car, make sure you have car chargers for your phone and laptop. If you have a generator, make sure it's filled up.
• Water - stock up on water. Just have enough to drink for a week in case outages happen. A few 5 gallon jugs should be enough.
• Stock up on medication if you need it. For example buy a month supply of insulin if you need it.
• Stock up on other essentials - soap, washing powder, dish soap, toilet paper, toothpaste, disinfectant... You'll end up using it all anyway.
• Buy a pack of single use gloves for when you go outside.
• Fix your health! Sleep 8h per day, stop eating junk foods. Now it's more important than ever.
• Fill your car's gas tank. You never know when it may come in handy.

After the virus comes to your town:

• "Human coronaviruses can remain active on surfaces such as metal, glass, or plastic for up to 9 days after exposure. The best way to deal with that problem is by cleaning those surfaces with a solution that’s 62% to 72% ethanol, .5% hydrogen peroxide, or 0.1% sodium hypochlorite"
• Limit human contact as much as posible. Don't shake people's hands. Or if you have to, disinfect them after every contact.
• Learn to clean hands throughly.
• Get into the habit of not touching mouth and eyes with your hands unless necessary.
• Devise a contaminated "area" near the door. Keep all shoes and jackets there.
• Wear gloves, masks and goggles when outside. Dispose of gloves after single use, keep masks and goggles near the door area, as they'll probably be contaminated.
• Don't share food with others without disinfecting it. The virus probably also spreads with saliva.

So don't panic, but start preparing. 2020 is gonna be hard. Prepare and make it as easy as possible.

Handy map of current virus spread

Edited February 16, 2020 by atdlzpae

[ir_fuel]

ehh... ok then. We're not exactly going to encounter a nuclear holocaust. It's just a flu virus. We had stuff like this happen before. Remember H1N1 in 2009? Well guess what, it's become part of the "regular flue strains" we see every winter since then. Chances are the same thing will happen with this one. 

The only thing I noticed is that the FFP3 masks that I used to buy all of the sudden became 20% more expensive 

The only solid advice is to wash your hands a lot and keep them away from your face/mouth if not cleaned. But that's also good for not contracting colds or any other flu.

 

[atdlzpae]

I hope it's gonna be "just a flu virus", but current numbers don't predict it.

It seems to be similarly infectious, but 100 times as deadly as H1N1. H1N1 was very mild when it comes to death rate.
If we take H1N1 infection number - 60 million cases, it's gonna result in approx:
6 million hospitalizations vs 280 thousand
1.2 million deaths vs 12.5 thousand

H1N1 is a bad comparison. It should be compared to Spanish Flu which infected 500mil and killed from 17 million to 50 million.

1 hour ago, ir_fuel said:

The only thing I noticed is that the FFP3 masks that I used to buy all of the sudden became 20% more expensive 

That's because it's early. That's why I'm saying that people should stock up on essentials now while they are available. When everyone and their dog rushes markets it's gonna be too late. FFP3 masks are unavailable in China - every photo shows Chinese people wearing those shitty chirurgical masks.

There are toilet paper shortages in Hong Kong. That's what you need to protect yourself from by buying now, before everyone. You will use it all anyway.

1 hour ago, ir_fuel said:

We had stuff like this happen before.

No. It's the first time 100 million people were quarantined. Streets sprayed with disinfectants. Schools closed for unforeseeable future. And restrictions to go out of the apartment only every few days. And temperature checks everywhere.
This is coming to Europe too. Not in such severe way (thankfully EU is far from totalitarian), but there definitely will be disruptions in commerce, schooling and work.

Edited February 17, 2020 by atdlzpae

[Roland]

The  economic backlash of the epidemic is going to be epic. 

This could be the start of a world wide depression. 

The typical departmentstore / Walmart has a huge amount of products that are sourced out of China. 

A lot of american and of european products rely on parts premanufactured in China. 
(https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/17/coronavirus-could-impact-5-million-companies-worldwide-research-shows.html)
From the cnbc article:
[...]“There is already evidence albeit anecdotal - that supply chains are being disrupted, including outside China. Furthermore, extended lockdowns in China would have a global impact given the country’s importance and interconnectedness in the global economy,” Moody’s Vice President Madhavi Bokil said in the research note. [...]

Pharmaceutical genertics (and precursor materials for US domestic production) are being produced mostly in China. (Heparin, Aspirin, generic Antibiotica etc... )
(See this article in Politico: https://www.politico.com/news/2019/12/20/policymakers-worry-china-drug-exports-088126)

From the Politico article:

[...] Last year, China accounted for 95 percent of U.S. imports of ibuprofen, 91 percent of U.S. imports of hydrocortisone, 70 percent of U.S. imports of acetaminophen, 40 to 45 percent of U.S. imports of penicillin and 40 percent of U.S. imports of heparin, according to Commerce Department data. In all, 80 percent of the U.S. supply of antibiotics are made in China.[...]

[...]Lawmakers also say they are concerned about a growing dependence on China for imports of active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) — the actual medicine contained in a pill, capsule, or shot. [...]

[...]“Thanks to its low-cost structure, China is already a dominant supplier of APIs to a number of countries, including the U.S.,” said Knut Slatten, senior analyst at Moody’s Investors Service. “Companies don’t generally disclose data on this, however, up to 90 percent of drugs by volume consumed in the U.S. are generic drugs.”[...]

 

 

Brace for impact. 

 

Also get some cans, toiletpaper and generic over the counter pharmceuticals like aspirin etc... If all works out you can use it up over time - if not ... you will be happy to have prepared yourself.  

 

 

 

Edited February 18, 2020 by Roland
added exerpts

[atdlzpae]

More than 1000 confirmed cases outside of China. And today hundredths of passengers were released from Diamond Princess quarantine hatchery. I'm 100% certain that many of those released people are carrying the virus.
Numbers outside of China are starting to look exponential. Things are looking really grim.

Prepare now, while it's still safe and items are available. When the panic starts, it's gonna be way harder.

 

Edit:
It looks like first city (pop. 1.2 million) in Iran is going into quarantine:

 

Edited February 20, 2020 by atdlzpae

[DanCar]

https://youtu.be/JytokFNJC6A?t=88
From the video, based on a wide scale study in China:
Case severity:
Mild: 81%
Severe: 14%
Critical: 5%

Fatality rate under 1% for those under 50.
Looks like 2% for 50-60
Then roughly doubles for each decade of age.
Pre existing conditions elevate the risk.  Or from the flip side, no pre existing conditions lowers the risk.
Video says the spread has peaked in China, but could rebound with people returning from Holidays and shutdowns.

[atdlzpae]

13 minutes ago, DanCar said:

Video says the spread has peaked in China, but could rebound with people returning from Holidays and shutdowns.

I don't believe Chinese numbers, in reality they are way higher. China has a history of lying. I'd bet a million dollars the spread has not peaked in China.
Could it have peaked in Wuhan? Maybe. But whole China? No way. For example Beijing has 395 confirmed cases - it's 100% certain virus is spreading there exponentially, especially since the quarantine is not as severe as in Wuhan.

Western media is also severely downplaying the situation. Peak prosperity has one of the best analysis of the situation updated daily:

  

13 minutes ago, DanCar said:

Case severity:
Mild: 81%
Severe: 14%
Critical: 5%

Fatality rate under 1% for those under 50.
Looks like 2% for 50-60

Yeah. I'm not afraid myself, I'm pretty sure I'd be in the mild category - I never get ill. But for sure I'm gonna protect my family. And warn friends so they have a head start.

Edited February 20, 2020 by atdlzpae

[Roland]

@atdlzpae

If we are really unlucky then a reinfection with corona could be as dangerous as a reinfection with dengue fever. 

In any case - the world economy is going to be on live support / toast for a long time after this "event". 
Also the next evolution of the Apple I-Phone is going to be delayed for a long time.

I really wonder what is going to happen to the producers of EUCs ? Shortages must be expected in this hobby.

But yeah - prepare and be cautious ...

Edited February 20, 2020 by Roland

[atdlzpae]

@Roland Nah, technology is fine. Sure, we'll have to wait a few years more for Ryzen 4, iPhone 12 and Samsung Galaxy S11, but who cares about that. We already have more than enough computing power for pretty much everything except of AI.
One piece of technology I'll miss for now is StarLink. I hoped to have a broadband internet in my RV...
EUC industry may go belly up. This is not a good time for luxury items. But the know-how remains, restarting the industry will take much less time.

I actually wonder if the virus will evolve. Spanish Flu attacked in two waves. The second wave was mutated and much more deadly.
What if we get a new mutated virus every year? Just like with flu?

[Roland]

@atdlzpae
Yes, the theoretical knowhow will stay- but there is a huge difference between knowing how a chip works and producing a chip. If we are unlucky and China stays on lockdown for more than 2 economic quarters (half a year) then we will find out just how badly managed globalisation was from a redundancy/ economic defence point of view. 

At that point just the problems with Pharmaceuticals will be impossible to ignore. (  https://www.politico.com/news/2019/12/20/policymakers-worry-china-drug-exports-088126 )
Should we get EUC-Startups outside of China I see another problem. Patent-trolls. 

China does not care about patents. Thats why we have those great EUCs. But the American that has build the first EUC seems to be able to stop any production outside of china with his claims. 

So should China fall into semi-anarchy and should we have a long slump world-wide we still will have to deal with this special EUC - Patent problem after we recover.

Now if we get a second wave or periodic outbreaks of highly infectious epidemics ...

We can expect to loose a lot of average live expectancy even in highly developed places --- Getting a new EUC will be the least of our problems. 

We are not in a good place right now.  sigh 

 

[LanghamP]

I'm disappointed we're not calling it the "kung flu virus".

What I find remarkable is how quickly Kung Flu spread around the world via jet travel. And how quickly and decisively people will move away from quarantined areas. I've noticed older Chinese people are particularly inclined to practice folk medicine while rejecting modern theories of germ infection.

Anyway, people doing spot checks on apartments (count up infected people in a city apartment, then extrapolate that to the general population) know the Kung Flu is several times more than what Chinese officials say. Does that matter? No, of course not; as long as quarantine procedures are in effect then no one cares how many people are actually killed. And unlike Spanish Flu, Kung Flu just kills mostly the old and a few young.

I do suspect in the end Kung Flu will kill about the same as Spanish Flu, but proportionately very few people, and mostly the old (since there's no vaccine).

[Roland]

@LanghamP

Welp.
The most we can do it seems is prepare in the interim. 
It does not matter what the actual death count will be. The first effects have become obvious.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/17/technology/apple-coronavirus-economy.html

This will most likely be an economic desaster. Again most pharmaceuticals are produced in part or depend on chinese manufacturers. There was a very good reason why pharceutical products were not included in the China tarifs. ( https://www.politico.com/news/2019/12/20/policymakers-worry-china-drug-exports-088126 )

But yeah... "Kung Flu" does sound more fun than covid19

Also get stuff while its still cheap and available ... 

[LanghamP]

6 hours ago, Roland said:

The most we can do it seems is prepare in the interim. 
It does not matter what the actual death count will be. The first effects have become obvious.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/17/technology/apple-coronavirus-economy.html

This will most likely be an economic desaster.

The NY Times article is wrong because it ignores the effects of a constrained labor market. That is, the present (worldwide) economy is entirely measured by captured profits, while ignoring the "not employed" rate (40%) and cost of living/wages ratio.

If you're a Chinese worker living in a factory dorm, paid minimally, injured with no compensation, fired for any or no reason, then you would hope Kung Flu wipes out 90% of your fellow workers (and effectively it has via being quarantined). Then you can bargain for better.

And if you're a US industry then you might want to build a few factories here, where we actually have health and safety departments that act independent of government meddling (and indeed might be required by law to be independant). You might have to use some of your precious profits to lure workers instead of stock prices and lobbyists.

After every disaster is a rise in wages and standard of living. Every time.

[Roland]

@LanghamP
 

1. China is not Kansas. The chinese communist party acts like an evil oligarchy and a second layer of bureaucracy. There are no wage increases if the party does not want it. 

2. We are talking about supply chain disruptions of the highest order. It does not matter that the price of work could increase in the long run. We are talking about now. This quarter. The second quarter. The rest of the year. A lot of companies have moved their main source of parts and productions into china. 
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/17/coronavirus-could-impact-5-million-companies-worldwide-research-shows.html
(Ignore the positive spin at the end of the article. This will take a long time until its over.)

3. Following this event the CCP could go from desaster control into full on oppression to stay in power. There could also be unrest among the population and a second revolution. 

4. A lot of chinese small and medium sized companies are build on fast growth and stable conditions. Many will go under if even a small disruption happens. This is not a small disruption. These companies will loose this quarter and they will loose the abillity to repay bank loans next quarter. Bancrupt in the third quarter. 

5. China is a paper tiger. 
Chinese growth and prosperity depends on the rest of the world. All those investments and exports will be smaller after this event. The idea to let China dominate parts of the global supply chain will become uncomfortable and tarifs will be introduced to counteract chinese price dumping. 

6. We do not know yet how bad this is going to be for the rest of the world. Because of the characteristics of the disease it can very well be that there are silent outbreaks happening all over the world. This could lead to more economic disruption. 

We will recover. But it will take time. And we will have to eat etc. in the mean time. At least the winter will soon end. 

[LanghamP]

50 minutes ago, Roland said:

A lot of chinese small and medium sized companies are build on fast growth and stable conditions. Many will go under if even a small disruption happens. This is not a small disruption. These companies will loose this quarter and they will loose the abillity to repay bank loans next quarter. Bancrupt in the third quarter

I have no problem with a disruption of continuous and unsustainable economic growth. Global warming, traffic jams, wars, unrestrained immigration, destructive tourism, pollution, and so is a symptom of excessive and rapidly expanding population growth. It's ludicrously dangerous for countries to peg their well-being upon economic growth because, eventually, you'll run out of resources while emitting pollution. All the careful recycling, dense urban areas, public transportation, and solar panels/electric vehicles won't help you if you don't find an alternative to continuous economic growth (and unrestrained population growth).

I would much prefer the world's economies crash and burn now with a dramatic drop in living standards, over the much worse outcome of "exceeding the carrying capacity of our species". One is a minor inconvenience with no loss of life while the other is unimaginably destructive.

Edited February 21, 2020 by LanghamP

[atdlzpae]

18 hours ago, LanghamP said:

I would much prefer the world's economies crash and burn now with a dramatic drop in living standards, over the much worse outcome of "exceeding the carrying capacity of our species". One is a minor inconvenience with no loss of life while the other is unimaginably destructive.

I think that the virus will increase the population. Here is my reasoning:
- Let's say the virus infects 25% of population. And kills 2% of infected. That's 7.5bil*25%*2% = 37.5 million dead. So 7.46bil people left. So it will set us back in population only a few months.
- Now, of all dead people almost all are above 50, thus above reproductive age. So not only it will set us back only a few months, but also in 2 generations it won't even matter at all, since these people would die anyway in 60 years.
Now the most scary part:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_population_growth_rate, specifically at this map.
Highly developed countries have lowest birth rates. Population growth is mostly the responsibility of Africa.
So it's very likely that the population will grow faster thanks to the virus thanks to this drop.

Also, there is such thing as "hurricane baby" - a bump in childbirth 9 months after a hurricane. Actually, this happens after every disaster, be it a mudslide or a war.

##########################

Update: Schools and restaurants closed in a few small Italian cities.
https://www.france24.com/en/20200221-northern-italy-towns-order-schools-businesses-shut-over-coronavirus-outbreak
 

Edited February 21, 2020 by atdlzpae

[Roland]

We should move any discussion about very tangential themes into their own thread.

It may be even advisable to dethread

• economic and
• personal health/preparation and
• general public health/progression/preparation observations

 

[atdlzpae]

Nah, no need. The thread has already served it's purpose... Or not.
I hope that I've convinced at least one new person to prepare before it's too late... The "discussion" part is just entertainment.

[LanghamP]

On 2/21/2020 at 5:12 PM, atdlzpae said:

think that the virus will increase the population. Here is my reasoning:
- Let's say the virus infects 25% of population. And kills 2% of infected. That's 7.5bil*25%*2% = 37.5 million dead. So 7.46bil people left. So it will set us back in population only a few months.
- Now, of all dead people almost all are above 50, thus above reproductive age. So not only it will set us back only a few months, but also in 2 generations it won't even matter at all, since these people would die anyway in 60 years.
Now the most scary part:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_population_growth_rate, specifically at this map.
Highly developed countries have lowest birth rates. Population growth is mostly the responsibility of Africa.
So it's very likely that the population will grow faster thanks to the virus thanks to this drop.

Also, there is such thing as "hurricane baby" - a bump in childbirth 9 months after a hurricane. Actually, this happens after every disaster, be it a mudslide or a war.

I wasn't referring to Kung Flu having any appreciable effect on population growth, but rather the entire consumption of a booming economy versus a stagnant economy. The former uses more resources while the later uses less, but both consume at unsustainable rates. 

On an even bigger (and enjoyable) tangent, did anyone else realize that Avengers where whatshisname kills half of everyone, that if he could have just killed most of the females then that's have more effect while costing fewer lives.

Same with 100 horny males and horny 100 females on an island. 

--If you convince 90% of the males not to have sex, then how many females will be pregnant after a year?

--If you convince 90% of the females not to have sex, then how many females will be pregnant after a year?

[atdlzpae]

22 minutes ago, LanghamP said:

On an even bigger (and enjoyable) tangent, did anyone else realize that Avengers where whatshisname kills half of everyone, that if he could have just killed most of the females then that's have more effect while costing fewer lives.

Well, his plan was stupid because he set population back only 50 years. So for this to be sustainable, he'd have to repeat this every 50 years.
Well, I'll assume he was bored and wanted a sustainable job...

22 minutes ago, LanghamP said:

--If you convince 90% of the males not to have sex, then how many females will be pregnant after a year?
--If you convince 90% of the females not to have sex, then how many females will be pregnant after a year?

Both answers are the same. In those 100 men there will be like 5 sociopaths who won't ask females if they want or not.

 

###################################### News!

443 infected in South Korea.
62 in Italy.
Iran is going exponential. And there is first confirmed case in Iraq.

There will be a serious outbreak of the virus in Poland in a week. Why? Intel Extreme Masters. Thousands of people will come to one stadium, it's gonna be a giant three-day hatchery.
Funnily enough Intel is resigning from IEM 2020.

Edited February 23, 2020 by atdlzpae

[LanghamP]

58 minutes ago, atdlzpae said:

Both answers are the same. In those 100 men there will be like 5 sociopaths who won't ask females if they want or not.

Females rate psychopaths and sociopaths as significantly more attractive.

Women rate the high DT personality significantly more attractive than the low DT.

No one is surprised by these findings, the only real question is by how much. 

[atdlzpae]

Italy is now in full panic mode. Empty supermarkets.

https://twitter.com/DarrenPlymouth/status/1231665320278085632

https://www.wykop.pl/wpis/47544883/tymczasem-we-wloszech-przygotowania-jak-do-wojny/

https://www.wykop.pl/wpis/47539171/wlochy-koronawirus-chiny/

https://www.wykop.pl/wpis/47538917/chcialem-kupic-makaron-ale-nie-da-rady-wirus-koron/

https://www.wykop.pl/wpis/47538859/wlochy-koronawirus-chiny/

https://www.wykop.pl/wpis/47531299/wlochy-kolejka-do-sklepy-zabawne-jest-to-ze-w-tej-/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AofQmO0j7S8

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1XV2Re9nh58

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xlWMgucM-1A

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LEFW_fnODz4

 

These truly are the last days to prepare. The same will soon happen everywhere.

Edited February 24, 2020 by atdlzpae

[Scubadragonsan]

1. Stay home, do not ride your wheels until COVID-19 has been exterminated.

2. Wheeler should be gowned and masked up while wheeling.

3. Do not share your wheels with anyone.

4. If you do, make sure it's de-sanitized completely.

5. If your wheel get sicked or you, stay home.

6. If you happen to meet Asian wheelers from Wuhan, try not to be close to them or borrow their wheels.

7. If your passion for wheeling overwhelms you, what the heck, go wheeling and die happy wheeling. Bury yourself with your wheel!

[Roland]

@scubadragosan
 

Hmm yeah ...
Here is a Fable you might enjoy: Its about an Ant and a Grasshopper ... 
 

 

[Roland]

Last days before the supermarkets are empty?