winterwheel Posted January 15, 2020 Author Share Posted January 15, 2020 If I extrapolate the population of Des Moines (about 220k) to the global population 7.5 billion, that's about 1->34,000, four riders there means total riding population 136k in the world. That actually checks out surprisingly well. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WIZARD Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Well that would be true, but I must point out that no one has ever heard of Des Moines, Iowa. In my Beach Bum days, where i learned all about tourists and other foreign bodies... People (well...girls in skimpy bikinis) would say... Ohio? Idaho? I think i know that's in the US, right? 🙂🙃☹ 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aneta Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 By number of tours By number of kilometers Country Tours # Country Kilometers United States of America 3134 1 France 50514.892 France 2793 2 USA 35214.443 Poland 1819 3 Poland 24555.111 These numbers seem to suggest that the answer to "how many of us are there?" is "not many". 20000 miles for the USA is a low number. For how long a period of time is this number? If it's for a year, and average is something like 1K miles/year, that's only 20 participants who use EUCW and upload their tracks. What's meant by "tour"? Is it just a GPS track or a regular route that is not counted more than once? (i.e. if someone commutes along the same route 200 times a year, it's not counted 200 times, only once) - ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Mono Posted January 15, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted January 15, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, Aneta said: These numbers seem to suggest that the answer to "how many of us are there?" is "not many". These numbers only suggest that there not many of us recording data on this app. That is surely true. Apart from that and giving a lower bound, these numbers give no hints whatsoever to answer the question of "how many are we". I am seriously puzzled how you could believe otherwise. Edited January 15, 2020 by Mono 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwheel Posted January 15, 2020 Author Share Posted January 15, 2020 I for one didn't start using the app until a few weeks ago. No one else in Edmonton is using it yet as far as I know (being winter, there isn't much riding going on). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Seba Posted January 15, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted January 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, winterwheel said: I for one didn't start using the app until a few weeks ago. No one else in Edmonton is using it yet as far as I know (being winter, there isn't much riding going on). EUC World just as an app (as I don't even think about euc.world online service) is still unknown to majority of EUC riders. More, I suspect that majority of EUC riders are just using OEM apps or doesn't actively use any app. They just charge their wheels and ride. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aneta Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Wheellog has "10K+" installs: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.cooper.wheellog I don't know what's the next "bucket" after 10K when Google displays number of installs - 20K? 50K? 100K? I'm sure vast majority of hoverwheel riders know about and use Wheellog, since factory apps for all wheels suck. Since average wheels per rider is more than 1.0 and number of Android devices is also >1 (I have WL installed on 3 or 4 of my phones), and also that some installs are just to take a look at the app, we need to divide the number of WL install by some factor >1.0. But I'll update my estimate to the range of 10-20K of riders worldwide, to be on conservative upper side. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post winterwheel Posted January 15, 2020 Author Popular Post Share Posted January 15, 2020 Boy you are sure working hard to put a negative spin on the numbers. There isn't a one-to-one correspondence between Wheellog and riders either. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Unventor Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 14 minutes ago, Seba said: EUC World just as an app (as I don't even think about euc.world online service) is still unknown to majority of EUC riders. More, I suspect that majority of EUC riders are just using OEM apps or doesn't actively use any app. They just charge their wheels and ride. I maybe use the app for "longer" rides. On most (daily commute) rides I don't bother to use any app. However I use occasionally a mix of KS or Inmotion (used to) wheelog and EUC.WORLD. But I never use Darknessbot for obvious reasons. Others do the opposite of me. So how does this put me into your calculations? The past year I have ridden about 3000km I doubt I tracked more that 1/4 of that distance or 1/5 of my rides. As for an answer to the threads title, it is simple, not enough IMHO. But the we come to are we better of to be massive present as escooters or so few we are on in the public rader/eye. To that I cannot answer. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwheel Posted January 15, 2020 Author Share Posted January 15, 2020 (edited) The other reason I'd like to have as much hard data as I can is that I am gradually starting to lobby local politicians and such to take wheels seriously as a form of transportation. Hoping to get a little bit of face time with the mayor of my fine city in a couple of weeks. It'll really help to know what the trends are when that happens. Edited January 15, 2020 by winterwheel Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RockyTop Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 If there are 7.5 billion people hanging around this planet and a staggering 100k ride EUCs. Than we are up to ... DRUM ROLL!! 0.0000133% riding EUCs. ....... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
null Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 (edited) 13 hours ago, Seba said: EUC World just as an app (as I don't even think about euc.world online service) is still unknown to majority of EUC riders. More, I suspect that majority of EUC riders are just using OEM apps or doesn't actively use any app. They just charge their wheels and ride. Agreed. I’m fairly interested in the tech side and could like a gps log, but not enough to even try: my wheels drop the connection, and I dislike creating accounts. What I’m getting at is people who care are already a subgroup, and people who actually log trips are a subset of those again. Edited January 16, 2020 by null 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aneta Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 2.8 billions of China + India population can be safely subtracted from 7.5 billion, since hoverwheels are not nearly as "popular" there as in the "West". (if minuscule % can be called "popular") Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RockyTop Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 0.00002127% That is a lot bigger without China and India. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
..... Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 winterwheel: I think you are attempting to tackle something that can have HUGE impacts on the future of the euc community. Im sure the sales and marketing departments are (or should be) crunching ALL the data they can get. Just from the business standpoint, these figures are really important. Anything that could change the transportation industry in any fashion, is a BIG deal as well. Best of luck on your findings, as I (and many others) would find it VERY interesting and/or useful to have. I dont envy the horribly difficult feat it will be to get ANY sort of reasonable estimates on any of this. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwheel Posted January 15, 2020 Author Share Posted January 15, 2020 7 minutes ago, ShanesPlanet said: winterwheel: I think you are attempting to tackle something that can have HUGE impacts on the future of the euc community. Im sure the sales and marketing departments are (or should be) crunching ALL the data they can get. Just from the business standpoint, these figures are really important. Anything that could change the transportation industry in any fashion, is a BIG deal as well. Best of luck on your findings, as I (and many others) would find it VERY interesting and/or useful to have. I dont envy the horribly difficult feat it will be to get ANY sort of reasonable estimates on any of this. I agree totally on the importance. But I'm hoping it may not be so tough to get a supportable estimate; we start somewhere and then just keep adding data points until a clear picture emerges. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aneta Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 I think many more billions can be safely dropped from 7.5 - 2.8. There's just so much poverty in the world that buying a hoverwheel or even knowing it exists is not even on people's minds. Let's take 1 billion as world's population that knows about and can afford to buy a hoverwheel. Well, we need to further exclude children and elders, so, let's say 500M. I'll work from my guess of 10K worldwide, so it's 1:50000. If we take NYC metro population, 20M, then there should be roughly 400 riders. I think this sounds pretty reasonable. If there was 100K instead worldwide, there would be 4000 in NYC... seems to be too much - sightings of riders will be much more frequent, there will be more widely known incidents and negative press of riders behaving aggressively on roads and sidewalks, police will be enforcing ban more actively, etc. San Diego metro pop. 3.3M -> 66 riders, not 666. Sounds about right? LA = 13M -> 260 riders, not 2600. SF = 4.7M -> ~100 riders, not 1000. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post winterwheel Posted January 15, 2020 Author Popular Post Share Posted January 15, 2020 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
..... Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 (edited) 14 minutes ago, Aneta said: I think many more billions can be safely dropped from 7.5 - 2.8. There's just so much poverty in the world that buying a hoverwheel or even knowing it exists is not even on people's minds. Well, that map pretty much ensures me that most of the world either hates the usa, or resents the usa. Im gna remember this chart, next time i start bitchin' about money. I'm assuming thats annualy. And to think, i claim 'poor' at being <$20k. Edited January 15, 2020 by ShanesPlanet 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Unventor Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Well just so info for you to understand we have a passion, hidden or not shared by more, simply because it looks different and difficult and added the learning curve against us as EUC riders to be adopted within reasonable time. That was the point.... So now to the info... In Sweden rental escooters are a new business only started in the biggest cities yet... Keep in mind we are talking only rentals here. It started around 2018 in Stockholm, the capital. So in 2019 the argument was to limit escooters due to high increase of major accidents/injuries. It rose 800% in one year... That is the politician talking.... So it seems huge but how many rides was done the year before almost none because it is a new business. So in 2019 the estimated numbers the 3 biggest rental companies had (hold on to your hats here and sit down....) 1 million 1.000.000 rides/trips logged. In a country of 9-10millions. Now that numbers needs to take into account the 2 years before that you could get 25% refund if you bought a ebicucle upto sales value of 4000€ as once per citizen. So ebikes sales had been high too. So in that regard we are getting more riders, but we are still only a few in comparison. Just something to consider.... And when the wife or colleague thinks EUC riding is too risky or difficult to learn what do we suggest.. Use a escooters or ebike... I have seen this many times here on the forum. I wrote before we are too few, but I didn't think it will get to be a big thing no matter how much I like to have a local euc store in my city.... We don't even have one in our country. Some tried to sell ninebot e+/s2... And airwheel small models... But no proper dealer are in business here. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwheel Posted January 15, 2020 Author Share Posted January 15, 2020 Just because the average income level of a country is low doesn't mean there are no wheels there. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vasuvius Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 13 hours ago, Seba said: Certailny @KAY GEE is a major contributor to UK result I can say that because he doesn't bother to hide his tours and almost everyday you can notice a red EUC rider symbol on the euc.world map I don't hide my tours but my red dot hasn't shown up on the euc world map :-( Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Mono Posted January 16, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted January 16, 2020 (edited) 2 hours ago, winterwheel said: Boy you are sure working hard to put a negative spin on the numbers. yeah, it's just so hard to admit to have been completely off. It's so much more rewarding to find any possible argument to convince oneself to have been (almost) right...and it's so easy to ignore any data that could possibly point to the contrary AKA confirmation bias. Another data point: in Oct 2017 the Paris meeting had apparently 233 wheelers. With the conservative assumptions that only 50% of them were from Paris (I'd assume the number is rather 85%) and 10% of all Paris wheelers attended (far too high IMHO), we compute 116/0.1=1160 wheelers in Paris two years ago. Here is another interesting question: what would be the split between committed sport riders vs laisser-faire opportunity riders. I reckon that this is quite different in Belgium vs the US. Edited January 16, 2020 by Mono 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mono Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 2 hours ago, Aneta said: But I'll update my estimate to the range of 10-20K of riders worldwide, to be on conservative upper side. Conservative, because it's less than the number of sold V8s? LOL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mono Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 1 hour ago, winterwheel said: I agree totally on the importance. But I'm hoping it may not be so tough to get a supportable estimate; we start somewhere and then just keep adding data points until a clear picture emerges. To get a reasonably good estimate of the number of sold wheels should not be that terribly difficult. In particular if @Jason McNeil will be so kind to chime in and give some hint Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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