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erk1024

State of the EUC industry?

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Posted (edited)

Digging around the web, I was trying to figure out state of the electric wheel industry. That Solowheel instructional video is from 2013. Wikipedia says Solowheel started in 2011. It looks like a bunch of companies were making them at one point, but there was a consolidation down to the three (or four if you still count Ninebot, which is rumored to be getting out.) Consolidation would be a natural progression with a radically new product. eWheels seems to be selling out of the models made by Gotway and KS. The electric scooter scene seems to be exploding--least common denominator type device.

Is the industry growing or shrinking at this point? Does anybody know?

Edited by erk1024

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I believe solowheel and inventist still owns the patent on electric unicycle, so they or anyone whom had an agreement with them (inmotion) are the only one whom can legally sell them here. No idea what are the quantities ewheel deal with but my impression is that it is tiny relative to either electric skateboard or even onewheel. Does any one know if EUC is actually growing?

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45 minutes ago, Hsiang said:

Does any one know if EUC is actually growing?

Not 100% but here in Seattle I went from rarely seeing any euc to now seeing one a day or so just around town in the past two years. I do live by one of the major bike paths so i’m sure that helps my odds  

Ive only been on one 5 weeks or so myself.

I picked up a Solowheel Glide 3 based on I stopped someone in town and asked about it. :) 

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2 hours ago, erk1024 said:

Is the industry growing or shrinking at this point? Does anybody know?

Do you know more people who stopped riding or who started riding in the last six months?

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29 minutes ago, Mono said:

Do you know more people who stopped riding or who started riding in the last six months?

who knows, nobody starts a thread saying ex-rider here :P always see newbies coming along but who actually has a clue how many people quit riding EUC :blink1: i would have to assume it would be growing, otherwise we wouldnt be seeing a new model come out every few months lol.. then again it could be growing in europe and asia and dwindling in america idk.. i still have never met a single person who knows what it is that im riding

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1 minute ago, Rywokast said:

i still have never met a single person who knows what it is that im riding

To my surprise, I met a guy at work who has an InMotion V5F. He wants to try my 18XL when it arrives. Could be dangerous--to his bank account! :P

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Just now, erk1024 said:

To my surprise, I met a guy at work who has an InMotion V5F. He wants to try my 18XL when it arrives. Could be dangerous--to his bank account! :P

nice.. haha, the EUC hobby has a knack for being dangerous to anybodys bank account.. addicting.. i wish i knew some fellow riders around here, gets lonely xD

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4 hours ago, erk1024 said:

Digging around the web, I was trying to figure out state of the electric wheel industry. That Solowheel instructional video is from 2013. Wikipedia says Solowheel started in 2011. It looks like a bunch of companies were making them at one point, but there was a consolidation down to the three (or four if you still count Ninebot, which is rumored to be getting out.) Consolidation would be a natural progression with a radically new product. eWheels seems to be selling out of the models made by Gotway and KS. The electric scooter scene seems to be exploding--least common denominator type device.

Is the industry growing or shrinking at this point? Does anybody know?

The industry is super niche.  Problem with this hobby is that it is terribly hard to learn for most and too expensive.  These I see are the biggest barriers to entry and for it to actually take off.

if you know the law of diffusion of innovation you will see this is still under 2.5% penetration.  In the last 5 years I’ve had these,I’ve only seen two people in the wild. 

Things fail for various reasons. Just look at TiVo, it is so popular we call recording a show by that name, but the company is a failure.  Very little penetration.  

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The market is niche, and has some challenges; all surmountable. The biggest barrier that I see is the lack of immediate gratification; the learning curve discourages many from trying. Couple that with the sizeable initial investment. In many cases I have seen people recommending two purchases; a beater for learning, and a new wheel for enjoyment. If more effort was made to design programs that teach people to ride who have interest before investment, I think EUCs could be a sustainable win. 

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, SamSuffit said:

 

Definitely increasing sales in France for 2018

Valeur= value, trotinette= scooter, gyroroues = euc, gyropodes=segway

image.png.370f4735fe5fb8654e170e63ee9c04a9.png

source: https://gyronews.com/233-000-trottinettes-electriques-vendues-en-france-en-2018-2904/

Reading this table in a different way: e-kick-scooters have become 23% cheaper, EUCs 5% more expensive, electric skateboards 290% more expensive and e-moto-bikes? 55% cheaper. That is, these markets have quite different dynamics, but they all have at least ample two-digit sales volume growth (in numbers and revenue).

Edited by Mono

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5 hours ago, SamSuffit said:

 

Definitely increasing sales in France for 2018

Valeur= value, trotinette= scooter, gyroroues = euc, gyropodes=segway

image.png.370f4735fe5fb8654e170e63ee9c04a9.png

source: https://gyronews.com/233-000-trottinettes-electriques-vendues-en-france-en-2018-2904/

Those numbers are what I call failure to penetrate the market.  In the 10 years this has been out.  If they continue to grow sales at the same 20% a year, would take 22 years to get to the electric scooter numbers.  

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, The Fat Unicyclist said:

Those of you that have been around for a year or more may be aware that last April I took the plunge and opened up my own EUC business (www.roll.nz) down here in New Zealand.

One thing we wanted to do was actually keep stocks of the more popular models (rather than people having to wait some months before they can get started). Bu one of the biggest challenges we had was trying to forecast what that volume might be... But we did our best based on as much serious (and anecdotal) data as we could get.

As it turns out we significantly underestimated the interest we would get - perhaps living in a "green-friendly" country" with a low population density helped - but whatever the reason, we are seeing more and more interest, as well as a "cluster" effect... Once we sell a wheel into a "new" area (where most people have never heard of an EUC), we typically see a spike in interest and more sales clustered around the area.

Hopefully that means that they are an increasing thing, here in New Zealand at least.   :thumbup:

Just out of curiosity, how many have you sold and in how much time?  What is an increase?

I live in an area that has lots of interest, I have an idea of how to sell them, but never jumped into selling.  

Edited by eddiemoy

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Here's the thing about markets and numbers; they are reactionary. Market forecasts for specific products can be pretty tricky unless you are forecasting megatrends.

The current market penetration of EUCs is not a reliable indicator of how they will do in the future precisely because the market is so small and niche. 

What resellers actually do to deepen the penetration of EUCs bears more weight than forecasts based on limited available data. Failure or success is relative to expectations for the device. 

At the end of the day people's actions make shit happen. Market data only reads what's happening and sometimes attempts to predict what might happen to help investors and/or managers make decisions.

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6 minutes ago, Hsiang said:

Here's another perspective; google trend on search for the word "electric unicycle". 

https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today 5-y&geo=US&q=electric unicycle

what was the spike in 2015? was that all because of hoverboards? seems flat otherwise

In UK, there was a crackdown on hover-boards in 2015 (when they first came out and were very popular XMAS gifts) due to safety issues (batteries catching fire) and the laws regarding riding electric powered devices on public roads and footpaths around that time, which resulted in these devices being removed from sale and interest soon dropped. Here's a couple of articles from around that time...

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/oct/12/uk-hoverboard-crackdown-all-you-need-to-know

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2015/oct/12/hoverboards-illegal-pavements-roads-scooters

 

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Super niche here in the U.S.  Battery technology is improving more than people suspect.  End of next year expect a 27% increase in density and 27% drop in cost.  EUCs can be made much better.  Lighter and stronger.  I expect EUC sales to increase as batteries and EUCs improve and drop in price, but will take years not months.

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I finally ran into someone else in my little hometown in the mid-west US. It was cool to finally talk with someone in person that can relate. Most people drive cars here, as we don't have big city traffic issues, and people rarely ever walk. 

Our local public bus system completely banned all battery-powered wheels, hoverboards, and electric skateboards due to the cheap hoverboards catching fire a few years back. 

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3 hours ago, Nylah Tay Rogers said:

I finally ran into someone else in my little hometown in the mid-west US. It was cool to finally talk with someone in person that can relate. Most people drive cars here, as we don't have big city traffic issues, and people rarely ever walk. 

Our local public bus system completely banned all battery-powered wheels, hoverboards, and electric skateboards due to the cheap hoverboards catching fire a few years back. 

Very cool. 

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5 hours ago, Hsiang said:

Here's another perspective; google trend on search for the word "electric unicycle". 

https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today 5-y&geo=US&q=electric unicycle

what was the spike in 2015? was that all because of hoverboards? seems flat otherwise

The data shown claims to reflect "interest" in EUCs. I would find it enlightening to know how "interest" is assessed; how does a subregion achieve 100% interest in a hobby item :efeed51798:; I have never seen that. I have prepared questionnaires/survey for clients who want to assess interest in a service or product in the feasibility stage. I also know that if they used a questionaires they can be horribly unreliable for a number of reasons; sample size, demographic, specificity of subject (EUCs lumped in with similar devices).  

Even if sales numbers are used to validate "interest", sales are impacted by a variety of forces. 

The data tells us something, but I am not convinced that the something reveals much of value about the market potential of these devices. 

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Posted (edited)

Anecdotally, I've been seeing more people lately on EUCs here in San Francisco since I started riding 5 months ago. Solowheel Glide 3 (same wheel I have) seems to be most popular but I've also seen Ninebot S2s, KS16s, KS18L, KS18XL in the wild. OneWheels seem to be pretty popular, too. I probably see 2 for every 1 EUC. I usually see at least one of these if I go out for a ride for a couple hours by myself on the weekend.

I should also mention that there's a local store that sells InMotion wheels so that could be one reason why they are over-represented. Also their marketing features SF prominently.

Edited by lioku

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, lioku said:

I should also mention that there's a local store that sells InMotion wheels so that could be one reason why they are over-represented.

I do think that having local dealers, and having those dealers give some basic lessons on how to ride would be a big help. You see people in videos trying to learn and doing things that are obviously counter-productive, and there is nobody to point them in the right direction. The learning curve could be dramatically shortened for a lot of people with some instruction. But I think the good news is that as more people get into e-scooters, skateboards, and OW's they will bump into e-wheels, and hopefully be intrigued. Everybody wants to do the "cool new thing" and e-wheels definitely have cool factor. Just watching somebody ride one makes you want to do it.

Edited by erk1024
obsessively fixing typos

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33 minutes ago, erk1024 said:

I do think that having local dealers, and having those dealers give some basic lessons on how to ride would be a big help.

Yes. I would never have gotten into EUCs if a friend hadn't let me learn on his for about 30 mins. I dropped it a few times but after that I was completely sold and got mine soon after.

The guys at our local shop are super nice and have a beater V8 that they'll let people try out.

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