What's the next big thing in battery tech?

[Donafello]

I can't wait to see what the future holds for us EU riders as battery tech really explodes over the next few years.  Just google upcoming battery tech and you'll see promises of some amazing things.  Now while all not true I'm sure we're overdue for a breakthrough. It'll be nice to charge once a month;) Anybody have any thoughts on this

[Jason McNeil]

3500mAh cells are trickling out from the factories. In lab testing these are about 15-20% better than the current best-of-breed used by IPS (Sony VC3 & NC1), Ninebot (LG HE2?), GW (Panos PD) & King Song (LG MG1). They are also more powerful, providing over 10A continuous current—high capacity & high current is the holy grail for batteries used for applications like eWheels. 

It's unlikely we'll see a doubling of capacity overnight, incremental 7-15% a year compounded over a decade should be enough to change the cost/benefit equation in favour of electrification in transport. It will be very interesting to know the specifications of the new cells that roll off the Gigafactory production line next year.

[Donafello]

That 7-15% sounds right but it just seems with the way technology is advancing so quickly, there would be a dramatic jump over the next few years.  But if in 5 years we can almost double what we have now that'll make for some fun EU riding. 

[dmethvin]

Battery capacity has always been the laggard as far as technology goes, it's a tough problem.

Notice that's a log scale! Nearly all the other things are improving by orders of magnitude over a decade and batteries are lucky to get a factor of 2 or 3. 

The other place where the term "energy density" is used is with high explosives, and the safety issue seems like a big reason why it's taking so long. 

 

[Blunzn]

there where a few potentialy big news in the last year. from super fast charging, double/tripleing capacity, wireless charging over WiFi or transparent Solar screen-protectors ... can't wait ...

http://www.pocket-lint.com/news/130380-future-batteries-coming-soon-charge-in-seconds-last-months-and-power-over-the-air

theres already the Lumopack on Kickstarter - 6000mah Batterypack which charges in 30 minutes at appx 140W. so you can at least fast charge your backup battery, but ofc when you plug in a phone or Tablet to charges it works only with normal slow speed.

 

 

[robca]

Battery tech has been a consistent laggard and consistently overhyped new discoveries have always been 1-3 years away :). Don't get me wrong, 7-15% compound improvements over time make a big difference, but battery tech has more to do with hard chemistry and physics, than the rate of progress Moore's law has all of us used to.

When looking at the amazing progress in the last 40 years, you can easily plot two trends: the improvements driven by better electronics, and everything else. Let's take cars, for example: almost all of the improvements in mileage, comfort and pollution are due to better electronics (esp ECUs for motor control and handling), and negligible amounts to metallurgy, chemistry or other physical improvements (not none, just much smaller in proportion). Planes flying today are not dramatically different from the ones taking off in 1970 (but their cockpits and motors have all improved thanks to electronics), and we still flight planes designed built at that time. Heck, self balancing devices are possible only thanks to the new electronics, not thanks to new batteries or motors (the mechanical portion of a Segway, which itself is 14 years old, could have been built 20 years earlier)

Even Tesla, for all the great things they did, used pretty standard battery tech (and their main stroke of genius was to realize that 18650 cells could be used in new ways). Tesla has access to some of the best new battery tech, and their rate of improvement between the original Roadster pack (2008) and the newly announced one is small: the new one has only 40% more capacity than the original one, for a roughly a 5% per year improvement

I'm older them most here, and I have seen the "two track" development operating for much longer. Younger people got used to the amazing Moore's law improvements, and somehow assume everything is improving at the same rate.

My advice is: bet on electronics improvements above your expectations, and physical improvements well below what you expect

[Gimlet]

Ambient temperature super conductors, (carbon nanotubes etc.) if they ever make it to general common use will see a huge reduction in the battery power required. Once you significantly reduce the thermal loses power requirements will be a small fraction of what they are presently.

[robca]

Superconductivity is 100 years old. Carbon based semiconductors were first discussed in 1980. The record for superconductivity is currently -70C, still a long way away from usable (not to mention that's a gas compressed in a diamond anvil, not exactly a wire). Carbon nanotubes are 25 years old, and while amazing, still not in widespread use (and they potential impact on the environment still poorly understood and a potential problem to their widespread usage)

One thing is to have a theoretical discovery in a lab or even a prototype. Another is to have consumer-grade batteries, cheaply made, and safe to use in subzero and hot temperatures, and take the kind of abuse they take in a EUC (from vibrations to thermal stress to electrical stress).

Lithium chemistry is ~45 years old, and Tesla (which knows a thing or two about batteries and futuristic technologies, since they are some of the same folks behind SpaceX) is investing $5B to become operational in a couple of years, and reach real volumes in 2020. Would they invest this kind of money if there were any credible alternative capable of delivering reliable power at the right cost? I'm not one to bet against Elon Musk when it comes to understanding science/technology that can be effectively sold to consumers.

It's unlikely that the average EUC will have access to dramatically better technology than what the Gigafactory can do, between now and 2020. Even assuming better batteries are available, cost considerations will make sure that Chinese manufacturers will use the most affordable batteries for their needs, and that's likely to be a lithium chemistry very similar to what Tesla is betting on

[Thyme]

Porsche has revealed its new electric sports car that drivers won’t have to plug in to charge.

The German car manufacturer stole the limelight at the Frankfurt motor show with its Mission E, a concept car which the company hopes will eventually provide a major rival in the electric car wars with counterpart Tesla.

Instead of plugging the car into a charger, the Mission E gets its energy from conductive tiles that its owner just drives over.

The car is a four-seater and can go from 0 to 100km/h in less than 3.5 seconds. It has a charging time of about 15 minutes to reach an 80 per cent charge and has a range of 500km.

 

My questions are

•  Does anyone know what batteries are being used in the "Mission E" ?
• Could the same batteries be used in a EUC which would be able to give a faster charging time? ie 15 min charge for 80% charge.
• As pointed out by @robca , Chinese manufacturers in most cases will use affordable Li-Ion batteries rather than more expensive latest tech batteries in their EUC's, in order to keep prices lower. So does this leave a niche in the market for third party (European made) battery packs, made of high quality latest tech batteries? Whilst I understand they would be more expensive than the packs which ship with EUC's, they would give those who wanted to pay for higher Wh packs with faster charge times, the power/distance they desire.

If I have missed the point or made assumptions that are incorrect please explain politely as I'm still learning about EUC's and have a very limited knowledge of battery tech. Thanks in advance for you answers.

 

 

Porsche has revealed its new electric sports car that drivers won.docx

Porsche has revealed its new electric sports car that drivers won.docx

Porsche has revealed its new electric sports car that drivers won.docx

[Gimlet]

But Tesla are reconing on a 5-10 percent battery capacity per year. I know this because the Tesla I ordered at the end of may had an 85Kwh battery and it's now being built with a 90Kwh battery.

[Jason McNeil]

There's a very good [semi-technical] article in the Fortune Magazine about the product roadmap of the Gigafactory:

http://fortune.com/2015/05/18/tesla-grid-batteries-chemistry/ 

Basic summary is:

• It's really a Panasonic operation, rather than Tesla; Panasonic to shoulder around 30 to 40 percent of the investment & their engineers to run the site  
• Site has the capability to run two different types of cell production simultaneously
• Will probably not produce anything earth-shattering when the conveyor belts start churning the cyclindricals out
• NMC: more stability, longer cycle-life but less energy density (PowerWall)
• NCA: more density, slightly higher cost (Tesla)
• To maximize longevity, their power management systems do not maximize DoD (Depth of Discharge) 

Competition between LG & Tesla/Panos is probably going to be a very good thing for consumers. LG have picked up loads of new contracts & have a 120kWh pack in the works... 

http://ecomento.com/2015/06/02/lg-chem-300-mile-ev-battery-is-available/  

"LG Chem announced at the Electric Vehicle Symposium in South Korea, earlier this month that it now has a 300 mile battery available for car makers. Its new lithium ion battery packs are between 80 and 120 kWh in size. That’s enough to outdo the Tesla Model S in range."

"LG Chem is already the supplier for many short range plug in vehicles such as the Chevrolet Spark EV, Renault Zoe, Ford Focus EV, Volvo V60/XC90 T8, Chevrolet Volt, and Renault Twizy."

 

 

[Jason McNeil]

 

Porsche has revealed its new electric sports car that drivers won’t have to plug in to charge.

The German car manufacturer stole the limelight at the Frankfurt motor show with its Mission E, a concept car which the company hopes will eventually provide a major rival in the electric car wars with counterpart Tesla.

That's one incredible car! Only problem is it's just a concept at the moment, that 15 minute charge could be if the owner is willing to change the pack every 100 cycles. 

[robca]

Porsche has revealed its new electric sports car that drivers won’t have to plug in to charge.

The German car manufacturer stole the limelight at the Frankfurt motor show with its Mission E, a concept car which the company hopes will eventually provide a major rival in the electric car wars with counterpart Tesla.

Instead of plugging the car into a charger, the Mission E gets its energy from conductive tiles that its owner just drives over.

The car is a four-seater and can go from 0 to 100km/h in less than 3.5 seconds. It has a charging time of about 15 minutes to reach an 80 per cent charge and has a range of 500km.

 

My questions are

•  Does anyone know what batteries are being used in the "Mission E" ?
• Could the same batteries be used in a EUC which would be able to give a faster charging time? ie 15 min charge for 80% charge.
• As pointed out by @robca , Chinese manufacturers in most cases will use affordable Li-Ion batteries rather than more expensive latest tech batteries in their EUC's, in order to keep prices lower. So does this leave a niche in the market for third party (European made) battery packs, made of high quality latest tech batteries? Whilst I understand they would be more expensive than the packs which ship with EUC's, they would give those who wanted to pay for higher Wh packs with faster charge times, the power/distance they desire.

If I have missed the point or made assumptions that are incorrect please explain politely as I'm still learning about EUC's and have a very limited knowledge of battery tech. Thanks in advance for you answers.

 

 

Porsche has revealed its new electric sports car that drivers won.docx

Porsche has revealed its new electric sports car that drivers won.docx

Porsche has revealed its new electric sports car that drivers won.docx

As  @Jason McNeil points out, that car is a "concept car"... usually by the time a concept car ships (if it ships, and that's a big if), reality kicks in. Also, battery tech can be pushed if you are willing to pay the price (both in initial cost and cell degradation: fast charge = short life). Porsche is not exactly a typical "consumer company", and their cars are designed for things few people can afford

There are no "European made" batteries, as far as I know, with the possible exception of Varta (that doesn't seem to make the high capacity 18650 EUCs would need, though). Li-Ion batteries are mostly a Korean/Japanese production these days (for high quality batteries) or Chinese for lower quality ones. The Tesla/Panasonic Gigafactory is Japanese as well (with CA and Tesla money to help). Even using top of the line batteries with the highest characteristics, the performance would not change dramatically (10-15% improvements, for a higher cost). Since batteries have a limited life anyway (and lose capacity over time), there is a tradeoff on how much a user is willing to spend for more powerful packs: would you spend 40% more for 15% more capacity, knowing that in 2-4 years you will need to replace them anyway? (just a hypothetical question to show the kind of considerations necessary). If you were sending a satellite in space, sure, spending more for top of the line performance would make sense, but not for consumer electronics (were it has been proven over and over again that price matters)

The kind of battery tech you see, is going to be with us for the next 5 years at least: there is nothing else that will get to production in the volumes and prices the EUC industry needs. That was my point. All improvements will be in better motors/configurations, better software, better electronics, and more experiences companies optimizing all parameters (see  @Jason McNeil comments in another thread about KingSong improving the low-voltage warning and handling to better use the entire capacity in the pack). And improvements in rider safety (smarter notifications that pedal tilting, no BMS cutoff, etc)

 

[Gimlet]

Seems strange that they are pushing it as the first ever four seat sports car with a 0 to 60 time of 3.5 seconds and they reckon it rivals the Tesla S which can carry up to 7 and go from 0 to 60 in 2.8 seconds.

They are quite likely to have problems with chargers as well. The Tesla superchargers which are fairly widespread now have problems in some sites delivering the full speed charge to multiple chargers simultaneously because of constraints in the available supply.

[castShadow]

Ooh, I like this topic.  Aren't they trying out graphene?  Easy to make, and improves on existing lithium-ion batteries.  Actually I don't know much, just through documentaries and reading articles.

Just a few months ago was driving the Fiat 500e (electric car).  I used to get 100 miles per charge.

[robca]

I believe that the person with the best understanding of where battery tech is (and is going) is Elon Musk. Not only he has the intellectual horsepower to process all available information, he's also super-invested in new, revolutionary tech and would benefit immensely from better battery chemistry.

And, yet, here's what he says: http://qz.com/400314/elon-musk-is-sick-of-inventors-pitching-him-the-next-big-thing-in-batteries/ (and investing in traditional lithium batteries)

There's nothing in at least the next 5 years that will be commercially viable for EUCs. Just "boring" improvements in the existing battery chemistry, and consistent (small) increases in power densities and discharge currents